Intercomparison of the Total Storage 
Deficit Index (TSDI) Over Two Prairie 
Agboma, Clement [*C.O. Agboma*] (Faculty 
of Engineering and Applied Science, Memorial 
University of Newfoundland, St. John’s, 
Newfoundland, AlB 3X5 Canada. email: 
cagboma@mun.ca, Tel: +1 709 737 3547, 
Fax: + 1 709 737 4042); S. Z. Yirdaw 
(Department of Civil Engineering, University 
of Manitoba, Winnipeg, Manitoba, R3T 5V6 
Canada. email: umyirdaw@cc.umanitoba.ca, 
Tel: +1 204 942 2505); K.R. Snelgrove 
(Faculty of Engineering and Applied Science, 
Memorial University of Newfoundland, St. 
John’s, Newfoundland, AlB 3X5 Canada. 
email: ksnelgrove@mun.ca, Tel:+1 709 737 
4820, Fax: + 1 709 737 4042) 
Retrieval of the terrestrial moisture storage 
dataset from the Gravity Recovery And 
Climate Experiment (GRACE) satellite remote 
sensing system is possible when the 
catchment of interest is of large spatial scale.  
These dataset are of paramount importance 
for the estimation of the total storage deficit 
index (TSDI), which enables the 
characterization of a particular drought event 
from the perspective of the terrestrial 
moisture storage over that catchment. 
Incidentally, the GRACE gravity signal over 
the 13000 km2 Upper Assiniboine River Basin 
on the drought-prone Canadian Prairie is so 
poor therefore making the computation of 
the total storage deficit index for this basin 
infeasible. Consequently, the estimation of 
the terrestrial moisture storage from other 
reliable sources becomes imperative in order 
to enable the computation of the TSDI over 
this basin. 
This study explores the utilization of the 
Variable Infiltration Capacity (VIC) model, a 
physically based, spatially distributed 
hydrologic model to simulate the total 
moisture storage over the Upper Assiniboine 
River Basin which was then employed in the 
estimation of the TSDI over this basin for 
subsequent characterization of the recent 
Prairie-wide drought. Interestingly, the 
temporal patterns in the computed TSDI 
from the VIC model reveal a strong 
resemblance with the same drought 
characterization undertaken over the larger 
adjacent Saskatchewan River Basin, which 
was accomplished utilizing terrestrial 
moisture storage from the GRACE-based 
approach. Additionally, these independent 
techniques employed in the characterization 
of the last Prairie drought over the two 
adjacently situated basins resulted in similar 
drought severity classification from the 
standpoint of the total moisture storage 
deficits over these basins. This study has 
therefore shown that in the computation of 
the total storage deficit index over smallscale catchments during anomalous climatic 
conditions that propagates extreme dryness 
through the terrestrial hydrologic systems, 
simulations of the total water storage from a 
structurally sound model such as the VIC 
model could be resourceful for the 
computation of the monthly total storage 
deficit index if no constraint is placed on the 
availability of accurate meteorological 
Foreshock Clustering as Precursory 
Pattern for the Kachchh Earthquakes 
Gujarat, India 
Aggarwal, Sandeep Kumar [*Sandeep Kumar 
Aggarwal*], B. Sairam, Kishan Sinh Zala, 
Vandana Patel, B.K.Rastogi Institute of 
Seismological Research, Raisan, 
Gandhinagar- 382009, Gujarat, India 
Email: brastogi@yahoo.com 
Aftershock activity to M5 level is continuing 
in the rupture zone of 2001 Mw 7.7 
earthquake in Kachchh, western India. The 
activity has also expanded to nearby faults. 
The seismicity is being monitored by dense 
network of more than 20 broadband 
seismographs in about 60kmx60km area. As 
the earthquake locations are precise it has 
been possible to observe foreshocks 
clustering prior to eight mainshocks of Mw 
3.8 to 4.7 during 2007 to 2009. Clustering of 
four to sixty-seven foreshocks in areas of 4 
to 25km radius for duration of 7 to 25 days 
has been observed. One to six days 
quiescence is also observed for six cases. 
The foreshocks in general cluster from about 
10 km depth to the focal depth of 
mainshocks of 21 to 30 km in seven cases. 
In one case of mainshock along Gedi fault 
(Mw 4.1 on 15 Apr 2008) the focal depth of 
the mainshock and foreshocks are 10-14 km. 
It has to be mentioned that similar clustering 
at other times was not followed by M~4 
mainshocks. Nevertheless one M4.5 
mainshock on September 5, 2009 was inhouse predicted a day in advance from 
cluster model as there were 7 foreshocks of 
M3.0 to 3.7 and 60 foreshocks of M 0.5 to 
2.9 in 20kmx50km area during 10-day period 
followed by a day’s quiescence. This study 
Page 1 gives hope of prediction of earthquakes as is 
being done for Koyna, India and first time for 
Kachchh region in India. 
Surface and Deep Water Characteristics 
in the Northeast Indian Ocean During 
the Last 60,000 Years as Inferred From 
Carbon and Oxygen Isotopic 
Compositions of Foraminifera 
Ahmad, Syed [*S M Ahmad*] (National 
Geophysical Research Institute, Hyderabad, 
India; ph. +91-40-23434685; fax. +91-40-
27171564; e-mail: 
smasoodahmad@rediffmail.com); Hongbo 
Zheng (School of Earth Science & 
Engineering, Nanjing University, Nanjing 
210093, PR China; ph. 86 25 83597512; email: zhenghb@nju.edu.cn); V M 
Padmakumari (NGRI, Hyderabad; e-mail: 
vmpadma@ngri.res.in); Xie Xin (School of 
Ocean & Earth Science, Tongji University, 
Shanghai, PR China; email:xiexin@mail.tongji.edu.cn); G Suseela 
(NGRI, Hyderabad; e-mail: 
suseela.gksd@gmail.com); N Sagar (NGRI, 
Hyderabad; e-mail: 
netramani.sagar@gmail.com); W Raza 
(NGRI, Hyderabad; e-mail: 
Stable carbon and oxygen isotopes in 
planktonic and benthic foraminifera and grain 
size measurements are carried in a well 
dated sediment core (SK-157-14) from the 
Northeast Indian Ocean. The gravity core 
studied here was retrieved from a waterdepth of 3306 m at lat. 5o11’N and long. 
90o05’E. Chronology of the core was 
established using six AMS dates (for the 
younger section of core) and oxygen isotope 
stratigraphy (for older section). The average 
sampling resolution for planktonic isotopic 
data set is approximately 400 years. A 
comparison of the AMS derived ages from 
planktonic species of G. ruber and G. 
sacculifer with conventional radiocarbon ages 
from bulk carbonates show that the bulk 
carbonate ages are generally higher than the 
AMS ages. This suggests that the bulk 
carbonates at the studied location contain 
substantial quantity of old carbonate. The 
grain size measurements from the core 
samples suggest that the sediments are 
mainly composed of silt fraction.  
Significant variations in del 18O of G. ruber 
between 2-60 ka are suggestive of large 
changes in the Indian monsoonal 
precipitation. A marked depletion in del 18O 
of near surface dwelling planktonic 
foraminifera (G. ruber) at 8-9 ka indicates 
strengthening of Indian monsoon. Highresolution measurements in planktonic 
foraminifera show a significant del 18O 
enrichment at 11.5-13 ka, corresponding to 
the ‘Younger Dryas’ cooling event. 
The deep water characteristics in the 
northeast Indian Ocean were reconstructed 
using the carbon and oxygen isotopes of 
benthic foraminifera (mostly Cibicidoides 
wuellerstorfi). A comparison of the benthic 
del 18O and del 13C record from our core 
with that of a Pacific core (RC13-110) 
suggest a similar deep water evolution. The 
oxygen isotopes in benthic foraminifera 
indicate a glacial deep water cooling of about 
2oC in the northeast Indian Ocean. A positive 
shift in del 13C during the early deglaciation 
is consistent with other records from this 
region. The observed fluctuations in del 13C 
during the deglaciation appears to have 
derived  by  the  switch  ‘on’  and  ‘off’  of  North 
Atlantic Deep Water (NADW)  
fluxes in the deep northeast Indian Ocean. 
Thermal State of the Indian Crust by 
Minimizing Rate of Entropy Production 
Ajay, Manglik [*R N Singh*] (National 
Geophysical Research Institute, Uppal Road, 
Hyderabad 500606, India; ph. +91-40-
23434604; fax +91-40-23434651; e-mail: 
rishiprem@hotmail.com);  A Manglik 
(National Geophysical Research Institute, 
Uppal Road, Hyderabad 500606, India; ph. 
+91-40-23434684; fax +91-40-23434651; 
e-mail: ajay@ngri.res.in) 
Many nonlinear systems evolve by 
minimizing their rates of entropy production. 
Thermal state of the Indian crust depends on 
a variety of processes which involve 
distribution of radiogenic heat sources, heat 
addition from the interior and removal from 
the surface, and nature of nonlinear and 
stochastic transport processes within the 
crust. These are highly variable processes 
and it is very difficult to quantify all of these 
based on inferences from geological, 
geochemical and geophysical data. Crustal 
domains with different thermal properties 
interact nonlinearly to establish an 
equilibrium thermal state.  In such cases it 
might useful to invoke the rate of entropy 
production principle to constrain the thermal 
state. This principle has been used earlier for 
this purpose earlier by Singh and Negi 
(Geophy. Res. Lett., 1980), Bodri and 
Cermak (Tectonophysics, 1993), and Singh 
and Manglik (Sadhana, 2000). Recently 
extensive surface heat flow and heat 
generation data have been obtained for the 
Page 2 Indian region. In the present work, these 
data have been used to infer the thermal 
state of the Indian crust by minimizing the 
rate of entropy production. The effects of 
fluid transport and tectonic deformation have 
also been included in the analysis. 
A Peep into the Complexities and 
Dynamics of Large Himalayan 
Earthquakes to Assess Their Role in the 
Preparedness for Future Extreme 
Seismic Events 
Arora, B.R. [B.R. Arora*](Wadia Institute of 
Himalayan Geology, 33 GMS Road, 
Dehradun, India 248 001; ph. +91-135-
2525101; fax +91-135-2625212; email:arorabr@wihg.res.in);  , Naresh Kumar 
(Wadia Institute of Himalayan Geology, 33 
GMS Road, Dehradun, India 248001; ph. 
+91-135-2525474; fax +91-135-2625212; 
e-mail:nkd@wihg.res.in); Gautam Rawat 
(Wadia Institute of Himalayan Geology, 33 
GMS Road, Dehradun, India 248001; ph. 
+91-135-2525453; fax +91-135-2625212; 
The occurrences of large and great 
earthquakes along the Himalayan arc are the 
extreme examples of the plate boundary 
ruptures marking penultimate state of strains 
accumulation due to continued collision of 
Indian-Eurasian Plates. On the other hand, 
space-time segmentation of earthquake 
activity along the entire length of the 
Himalayan arc signifies complexities of the 
tectonic setting and crustal structures 
controlling strain accumulation/release. 
Continuous enhancements in seismic 
monitoring network and improved location of 
earthquake parameters clearly bring out role 
of tectonic elements in defining the spacedepth, diversity in source mechanism, 
concentration of earthquakes to narrow belt 
etc. Modeling of GPS measurements attribute 
this concentration of earthquakes to stress 
accumulation around the down-dip end of the 
locked portion of the Indian Plate. 
Geophysical deep imaging favors nucleation 
of strains in a ramp structure in the down 
going basement thrust as a possible 
mechanism responsible for concentration of 
earthquakes to a narrow belt. The electrical 
resistivity mapping, by virtue of its sensitivity 
to fluids, allow to explain the sharp cut-off 
depth and focusing of tectonic stresses on 
the brittle-ductile plane accounting for the 
alignment of hypocenters of large 
earthquakes on a single plane visualized as 
the top of the down-going Indian Plate. 
Integration of space-time distribution of 
seismicity with deep imaging allows to infer 
that sections of the Himalaya where the 
structure aligned with the geological fabric of 
the Himalaya are cut by local transverse 
structures define the asperity providing 
longitudinal segmentation of seismicity in the 
Himalayan arc. This understanding of 
tectonic seismic linkage permits to apply 
more modern tool of self organized criticality, 
statistical self-similarity and dynamical origin 
to understand and predict the event of 
extreme state of strain accumulation marking 
preparedness for ensuing great earthquake. 
Characterization of Recharge Through 
Complex Vadose Zone of a Granitic 
Aquifer by Time-Lapse Electrical 
Resistivity Tomography 
Arora, Tanvi [*Tanvi Arora*](Scientist, 
Dynamo Group, National Geophysical 
Research Institute, Council of Scientific & 
Industrial Research, Hyderabad 500 606, ph. 
+91 40 23434684; fax +91 40 23434651; 
email: tanvi@ngri.res.in); Shakeel Ahmed 
(Scientist, Indo-French centre for 
groundwater research, National Geophysical 
Research Institute, Council of Scientific & 
Industrial Research, Hyderabad 500 606, ph. 
+91 40 23434657; fax +91 40 23434657) 
The vadose zone is the main region 
controlling water movement from the land 
surface to the aquifer and has very complex 
structure. The use of non-invasive or 
minimally invasive  geophysical methods 
especially electrical resistivity imaging is a 
cost-effective approach adapted for longterm monitoring of vadose zone. The main 
aim of this work is to know the fractures in 
vadose zone through which the recharge or 
preferred path recharge to the aquifer takes 
place and thus to relate moisture and 
electrical resistivity. Time Lapse Electrical 
Resistivity Tomography (TLERT) of 
subsurface processes is an emerging and 
promising area of hydrogeophysics. 
Experiment was carried out in the vadose 
zone of granitic terrene at National 
Geophysical Research Institute, Hyderabad 
along two profiles, 300 m apart to a depth of 
18 m and 13 m each. Piezometric, rainfall 
and soil moisture changes were accounted to 
correlate with changes in recharge 
distribution. TLERT inversion profiles were 
matched with soil moisture, rainfall and 
piezometric data. These TLERT difference 
images showed that the conductivity 
distribution was consistent with recharge 
occurring along the minor fractures. We 
integrated TLERT images with other data sets 
like soil moisture, rainfall, water level.  We 
analyzed the fractures in hard rock or 
Page 3 granites where recharge takes place from the 
secondary porosity to see the effect of 
recharge on resistivity variation and 
estimation of moisture content. We have 
measurement of soil moisture and resistivity 
from TLERT images and finally correlated 
them. We can map minor fractures through 
granite and the recharge is reflected in 
resistivity images in terms of decreasing 
resistivity with increase in recharge and viceversa along the preferred pathways. A good 
correlation between the soil moisture and 
resistivity is established in the unsaturated 
zone of granitic aquifer. Since the vadose 
zone exhibit extremely high variability, both 
in space and time, the surface geophysical 
investigations such as TLERT has been simple 
and useful method to characterize the 
vadose zone, which would not have been 
possible with point measurements alone. 
Nonlinearity in Origin of Ridges in 
Indian Oceanic Lithosphere 
Ashalatha, Bhaskarabhatla B Ashalatha 
(Scientist, National Geophysical Research 
Institute, Hyderabad-500007, India; ph. 91-
40-23434791; fax 91-40-23434651; e-mail: 
ashalatha_b@ngri.res.in); [*R N Singh*] 
(Emeritus Scientist, National Geophysical 
Research Institute, Hyderabad-500007, 
India; ph. 91-40-23434604; fax 91-40-
23434651; e-mail: rnsingh@ngri.res..in) 
Large scale oceanic bathymetry along with 
heat flow, gravity, geoidal and earthquake 
focii data have been explained using linear 
heat conduction model with local isostatic 
compensation. Local departures in gravity 
and bathymetry data have also been 
explained using linear approximation 
between topography and gravity. However 
there are still significant departures in both 
gravity and bathymetry data. These high 
frequency components may point to 
nonlinear processes which would have been 
operative during magmatic construction of 
oceanic lithosphere. It would thus be 
interesting to infer nonlinear characteristics 
of these anomalous data using fractal 
analysis.  This has been done using iterated 
function methodology. Results show that a 
low order nonlinear dynamic system can 
explain the properties of the data. Further as 
evolution of surface topography of earth is 
modeled by nonlinear diffusion equations, 
applicability of such models in understanding 
various features of Indian ocean bathymetry 
will also be discussed. 
Statistical Study of Himalayan Seismicity
Babu, K.Kanna [*K.Kanna Babu *] (National 
Geophysical Research Institute, Council of 
Scientific and Industrial Research, Uppal 
Road, Hyderabad – 500 606: ph. +91-40-
23434700; fax +91-40-23434651;email:  
kanna150abc@gmail.com ) ; A. R. Bansal 
(National Geophysical Research Institute, 
Council of Scientific and Industrial Research, 
Uppal Road, Hyderabad – 500 606: ph. +91-
40-23434700; fax +91-40-23434651;email:  
abhey_bansal@ngri.res.in) ; V. P. Dimri 
(National Geophysical Research Institute, 
Council of Scientific and Industrial Research, 
Uppal Road, Hyderabad – 500 606: ph. +91-
40-23434600; fax +91-40-23434651; email: 
We analyzed a seismically active Himalayan 
region formed due to collision of Indian and 
Eurasian continental plates. The Himalayan 
region is divided into three parts: Western 
(29º-36ºN, 76º-80º E), Central (20º-32ºN, 
80º-88ºE) and Eastern (20º-30ºN, 88º-96ºE) 
on the basis of seismicity. The NEIC 
catalogue is used from January 1973 to 
August 2009 with a magnitude completeness 
of 4.6, 4.6 and 4.3 for western, central and 
eastern Himalaya, respectively. The b-values 
are found to be 1.29, 1.17, 0.95 for western, 
central and eastern, respectively. The lower 
b – value in the eastern Himalaya indicates 
frequently occurrence of bigger earthquakes. 
The b - values varies with time and decrease 
of these values are observed corresponding 
to the earthquakes of M >=6.0. The depth 
distribution in the region indicates occurrence 
of shallower (<70 km) as well as deeper 
(>70 km) earthquakes in the eastern region, 
whereas western and central portion is 
dominated mainly by shallow earthquakes. 
Temporal clustering indicates non- Poisson 
fractal distribution of the earthquakes for all 
the three regions with a value of 0.08 
(western), 0.06 (central), 0.06 (eastern). 
The lower values of fractal dimension in 
central and eastern Himalaya indicate 
isolating clustering in time.  The temporal 
clustering in the eastern region is observed 
for shallow as well as deeper earthquakes. 
Four time windows in the eastern Himalaya 
have been modeled with Epidemic type 
aftershock sequence (ETAS) model, 
remaining western and central are not 
considered for ETAS model because of limited 
dataset. The productivity factor K values are 
found 1.42 (western), 0.28 (central), [0.11, 
1.01] (eastern). The magnitude sensitivity 
parameter alpha values are 2.14 (west) 1.74 
(central), [1.24, 1.95] (eastern), and the 
Omori-Utsu exponent p values are 0.83 
(west), 0.81 (central), [0.36, 0.94] 
Page 4 (eastern). In general lower p values, b value 
and temporal clustering fractal dimension in 
Eastern Himalya indicate more 
heterogeneous and hazardous nature of the 
region as compared to the western and 
central part. 
Severe and Long-Lasting Geomagnetic 
Storms, Their Solar Sources and Related 
Disturbances in Near-Earth Geospace 
Badruddin, Badr [*B Badruddin*] 
(Department of Physics, Aligarh Muslim 
University, Aligarh-202002, India; ph. 91-
0571-2701001; fax 91-0571-2701001; email: badr.physamu@gmail.com); F 
Mustajab (Department of Physics, Aligarh 
Muslim University, Aligarh - 202002, India; 
ph. 91-0571-2701001; fax 91-0571-
2701001; e-mail: fainana@rediffmail.com); 
O P M Aslam (Department of Physics, Aligarh 
Muslim University, Aligarh-202002, India; 
ph. 91-0571-2701001; fax 91-0571-
2701001; e-mail: aslamklr2003@gmail.com) 
Study and prediction of severe and longlasting major storms is important, as the 
severity and duration play varying role in one 
space weather effect or the other. Study of 
such storms is also important so as to know 
about their different solar and interplanetary 
causes, and also to understand the physics of 
such events. We identify the solar sources 
and interplanetary structures causing both 
the severe (Dst < -250 nT) as well as the 
long-lasting (>10 days) major disturbances 
in geospace. We examine fluctuations in the 
interplanetary plasma and field parameters 
during the passage of such structures. 
During their passage through Earth, we study 
the charge particle dynamics by analyzing 
simultaneous perturbations in cosmic ray 
(CR) intensity measured by ground-based 
instruments. Disturbances originating at the 
Sun (CMEs/High-Speed Streams from 
Coronal Holes) and evolving in interplanetary 
space (Shocks/ICMEs/CIRs/Magnetic Clouds), 
and ‘complex’ structures formed due to 
merging of two or more of them, generally 
modulate both the geomagnetic activity as 
well as CR intensity, however, amplitudes of 
modulation (‘geo-effectiveness’ and ‘CReffectiveness’) due to a particular structure is 
often quite different, both in magnitude and 
time profile. Simultaneous use and analysis 
of interplanetary plasma and field 
parameters (plasma velocity, density and 
pressure, interplanetary magnetic field, its 
variance and north-south component) during 
the passage of various distinct regions of 
interplanetary structures 
(Shocks/ICMEs/CIRs etc.) is utilized to 
provide insight not only about the relative 
‘geo-effectiveness’ and ‘CR-effectiveness’ of  
various distinct structures, but also about the 
relative importance of interplanetary 
parameters and  physical mechanism(s) 
playing important role in modulating 
geomagnetic activity and cosmic ray 
intensity. Such studies, during the passage of 
structures responsible for severe and longlasting major storms, are useful in prediction 
of severe space weather conditions. 
Implications of our results for space weather 
prediction are also discussed. 
The Economic and Societal Impacts of 
Extreme Space Weather Events 
Baker, Daniel  [*Daniel  N.  Baker*] 
(Laboratory for Atmospheric and Space 
Physics, University of Colorado, 1234 
Innovation Drive, Boulder, CO 80303-7814; 
ph. 303-492-4509; fax 303-492-6444; email: daniel.baker@lasp.colorado.edu) 
Vulnerability of society to space weather 
effects is an issue of increasing concern. For 
example, electric power networks connecting 
widely separated geographic areas may incur 
damaging effects induced by geomagnetic 
storms. Also, the miniaturization of electronic 
components that are used in spacecraft 
systems makes them potentially more 
susceptible to damage by energetic particles 
produced during space weather disturbances. 
NASA has put into place a program to 
expand human activities with a future 
permanent settlement on the Moon and 
eventually a mission to Mars. However, 
despite all these potential space weather 
vulnerabilities, relatively few detailed studies 
of the socioeconomic impacts of severe space 
weather events have been carried out. A 
committee, operating under the auspices of 
the Space Studies Board (SSB) of the 
National Academy of Sciences, was charged 
in 2007 to convene a public workshop. This 
was to feature a discussion to assess current 
and future ability to manage the effects of 
space weather events and their societal and 
economic impacts. Although cost/benefit 
analyses of terrestrial weather observing 
systems and mitigation strategies have a 
long history, similar studies for space 
weather are lacking. Workshop sessions 
included an analysis of the effects of 
historical space weather events, and used 
the record solar storms of October – 
November 2003 to focus the presentations 
and provide data to project future 
vulnerabilities. The conclusion of the various 
assessments was that severe space weather 
events can cause tens of millions to many 
Page 5 Page 6 
billions of dollars of damage to space and 
ground-based assets. The most extreme 
events could cause months-long power 
outages and could cost >$1trillion.  In this 
talk, I will discuss socioeconomic impacts of 
space weather and I will also discuss the 
immense potential benefits of improved 
space weather forecasts. Such forecasts take 
advantage of our increased understanding of 
the nonlinear dynamical evolution of the 
Earth’s space environmental conditions, 
especially as seen during extreme space 
weather events. 
Sustainable Management of Coral Island 
Aquifer Through Numerical Modeling 
Banerjee, Pallavi [*P Banerjee*] (National 
Geophysical Research Institute (CSIR), 
Hyderabad – 500007, India; Phone: 040-
23434615; e-mail: vns_pal@yahoo.co.in); V. 
S. Singh (National Geophysical Research 
Institute (CSIR), Hyderabad – 500007, India; 
Phone: 040323434615; e-mail: 
Generally in small coral islands, groundwater 
is the only dependable source of fresh water 
supply. Androth is such an island of 
Lakshadweep archipelago, situated off the 
western coast of India. Coral sands, and 
coral shell limestone are the main water 
bearing formations. The topography of the 
island is undulating and the elevation above 
the mean sea level ranges from a few 
centimeters to about 6 m. Depending upon 
the topography, the depth to groundwater 
level below ground level varies from 0.5 to 
4.0 m. Excessive pumping of the aquifer 
already caused erratic changes in its water 
quality and flow patterns   due to sea water 
ingress in the aquifer. Therefore sustainable 
fresh groundwater development scheme is 
imperative. This in turn requires assessment 
of fresh groundwater potential on the island, 
aquifer behavior and response of 
groundwater regime to various stresses. 
Among various approaches, a numerical 
model for variable density flow, SEAWAT is 
used to simulate the hydraulic head behavior 
and prognoses the current and future 
conditions of water level in the coral island 
aquifer under various pumping conditions. 
The results show that the hydraulic head is 
very sensitive to the pumping rates in island 
environment. The model was used to 
establish a sustainable pumping rate for a 
small coral islands aquifer system. 
Analysis of the Seismicity of the Andman 
Bansal, Abhey  [*A.  R.  Bansal*]  (National 
Geophysical Research Institute, Council of 
Scientific and Industrial Research, Uppal 
Road, Hyderabad – 500 606: ph. +91-40-
23434700; fax +91-40 23434651;email:  
abhey_bansal@ngri.res.in) ; V. P. Dimri 
(National Geophysical Research Institute, 
Council of Scientific and Industrial Research, 
Uppal Road, Hyderabad – 500 606: ph. +91-
40-23434600; fax +91-40-23434651; email: 
We analyzed the seismicity of Andman Island 
region (10N -17.5N, 91.5 E to 94.5E) 
recently visited by the earthquake of  7.5M 
on 10 August, 2009 with an epicenter at 
(14.1N, 92.91E ) on the border of Indian 
Burma plate an intra-plate earthquake with 
normal faulting.  The region experienced 14 
earthquakes of magnitude > 6.0 since 
January, 1973 in which 9 earthquakes 
occurred after the Sumatra mega earthquake 
2004, M 9.3, which generated devastating 
Tsunami, a clear indication of the activation 
in the region. The magnitude completeness 
in the region decrease from 4.75 to 4.4 from 
1985 until September 1, 2009 with a sudden 
decrease corresponding to the Sumatra 
earthquake. The b value in the region varies 
from 0.89 to 1.74 for a period from 1984 to 
September 1, 2009 with sharp decrease after 
the Sumatra earthquake. To study 
quantitatively the activation and quiescence 
in the region we applied epidemic type 
aftershock sequence (ETAS) model by 
dividing the dataset in two time intervals 
before and after the Sumatra earthquake. 
The background seismicity decreases from 
0.02 to zero per day indicating the 
earthquakes are dominated by single 
sequence of aftershocks. The productivity 
factor is five times higher than before the 
Sumatra earthquake. The magnitude 
sensitivity parameter alpha increases from 
zero to 1.7 after the Sumatra earthquake, 
indicating larger aftershocks are 
proportionately easier to trigger, and the 
Omori-Utsu exponent p decreases from 1.71 
to 1.05 indicating area is dominated by 
aftershocks of Sumatra. The trend of the 
seismicity indicates activation before the 
Sumatra earthquake and quiescence before 
the August 10, 2009 earthquake in the 
region as compared to the ETAS model. Estimation of Crustal Discontinuities 
from Reflected Seismic Waves Recorded 
at Shillong and Mikir Hills Plateau, North 
East India 
Baruah, Saurabh [*S Baruah*] (Geoscience 
Division, North-East Institute of Science and 
Technology, formerly Regional Research 
Laboratory,Council of Scientific and Industrial 
Research, Jorhat-785006, Assam, India +91- 
9864253284, +91-376-2370011, 
saurabhb_23@yahoo.com) D K Bora 
(Geoscience Division, North-East Institute of 
Science and Technology, formerly Regional 
Research Laboratory,Council of Scientific and 
Industrial Research, Jorhat-785006, Assam, 
India +91- 9864253284, +91-376-2370011, 
dipak23@rediffmail.com and R Biswas 
(Geoscience Division, North-East Institute of 
Science and Technology, formerly Regional 
Research Laboratory,Council of Scientific and 
Industrial Research, Jorhat-785006, Assam, 
India +91- 9864253284, +91-376-2370011, 
In this study, an attempt is made for 
determining seismic velocity structure of the 
crust and upper mantle beneath the Shillong 
-Mikir Hills plateau in Northeast India region. 
The principle of the technique is to the relate 
travel time with the crustal thickness above 
the Conrad and Moho discontinuities. The 
digital waveforms of the seismic events make 
it possible precise detection of the seismic 
phases that are reflected at these 
discontinuities. The results show that the 
Conrad discontinuity is at 18±0.5-20±0.5 km 
beneath the Shillong -Mikir Hills plateau and 
the Moho discontinuity is at 30±1.15 km 
beneath the Shillong plateau and at 35±1.2 
km beneath the Mikir Hills plateau. 
Seismotectonics in Northeast India: A 
Stress Analysis of Focal Mechanisms of 
Earthquakes and Its Kinematic 
Baruah, Saurabh Jacques Angelier 
(Observatoire Océanologique de Villefranche 
(UPMC) and Géosciences Azur, B.P.48, La 
Darse, 06235 Villefranche-sur-Mer, France  
email : jacques.angelier@geoazur.obs-vlfr. 
Fr) ; [*Saurabh Baruah*] (Geoscience 
Division, North-East Institute of Science and 
Technology, formerly Regional Research 
Laboratory,Council of Scientific and Industrial 
Research, Jorhat-785006, Assam, India +91- 
9864253284, +91-376-2370011, 
Based on stress inversion of 285 double 
couple focal mechanisms of earthquakes, 
with 5 as average magnitude, we determine 
the regional seismotectonic stress in 
Northeast India. Although N-S compression 
prevails at the scale of the whole area, 
different seismotectonic regimes deserve 
separate consideration, as a function of 
geographic location and depth.  
Consistent with India-Eurasia convergence, 
N-S compression dominates in the Eastern 
Himalayan region, where E-W extension also 
occurs as a result of permutation between 
principal stress axes. N-S compression also 
affects north-eastern regions of the Indian 
Plate including the Bengal basin, the 
Shillong-Mikir massif and the Upper Assam 
Valley. Despite the absence of significant 
motion related to present-day locking, the 
existence of widespread N-S compression in 
the Bengal Basin, far from the Himalayan 
front, is compatible with the already 
proposed convergence between the ShillongMikir-Assam Valley block and the Indian 
craton, including a probable component of 
eastward extrusion for this block accounted 
for by the additional occurrence of nearly WE compression in this block.  
More complicate are the stress patterns in 
the Indo-Burma Ranges, where a variety of 
stress regimes occur. N-S compression 
occurs in these areas, but mainly at depth 
where it affects the descending slab of the 
Indian lithosphere, as a result of increasing 
bending of the Burmese arc in its 
northernmost, NE-SW trending segment. 
Arc-perpendicular extension, with WNW-ESE 
trends in the northernmost arc segment and 
ENE-WSW trends in the main N-S arc 
segment, is also present in the upper 
lithosphere of the Indo-Burma ranges, in 
relation to the subduction beneath the 
Burmese arc. Major stress regimes in the 
Indo-Burma region are characterised by 
compression in the upper lithosphere that 
varies in trend from NE-SW in the inner and 
northern domains of the belt to E-W in the 
outer domains.  
Considering the kinematic implications of the 
published geodetic information, we analyse 
the relationships between the present-day 
relative displacements of major blocks and 
the seismotectonic stress regimes that we 
have determined using focal mechanisms of 
earthquakes. This comparison reveals high 
levels of consistency between the clockwise 
change in the direction of compression in the 
Burmese arc region and the corresponding 
clockwise change in vectors of present-day 
relative displacement of north-western Sunda 
with respect to Burma (SSW-directed) and 
Burma with respect to India (SW-directed), 
Page 7 as a typical illustration of partitioning across 
a mountain belt at an oblique convergence 
Modeling Flow Over An Aligned Flat 
Surface Using Blasius Equation 
Basu, Bidroha [Bidroha Basu] (Department of 
Civil Engineering, University of Minnesota, 
Minneapolis, MN 55414; ph. 612-624-4629; 
fax 612-624-4398; email: 
basux027@umn.edu); Efi Foufoula-Georgiou 
(Department of Civil Engineering, University 
of Minnesota, Minneapolis, MN 55414; ph. 
612-626-0369; fax 612-626-7750; email: 
The Blasius equation uses the similarity 
transformation technique to describe the 
properties of steady-state two dimensional 
boundary layer which forms over a semiinfinite plate held parallel to the 
unidirectional flow field. When the surface is 
aligned with the direction of the fluid, a 
modified Blasius equation is used. The 
equation is solved numerically using the 
Newton’s iterative technique. However this 
method can be applied only when the system 
is consistent. If the system becomes chaotic 
in nature, then the method provides 
unreliable results as the dynamics at that 
situation is different than that of the regular 
system. As a chaotic system is highly 
sensitive to initial conditions, iterative 
techniques cannot be applied. Here the 
Blasius equation is solved numerically 
against different wedge angle values and the 
dynamics of the system is observed. Finally, 
the range at which the system becomes 
chaotic is established. 
Mantle Convection Stirring Efficiency 
With Both Basal and Internal Heating 
Bhaskar, Deo [*Bhaskar*](Department of 
Geology and Geophysics, Indian Institute of 
Technology, Kharagpur, WB, India; Ph: 
+919932574337; email: 
iitkgp.bhaskar@gmail.com); Henri Samuel 
(Bayerishes Geoinstitut, Universität 
Bayreuth,Bayreuth - D-95447,Germany; 
Office phone: +49-(0)921-55-3710;email: 
Recent studies have tried to quantify 
convective stirring efficiency for either pure 
internal heating mode or with pure basal 
heating mode (Coltice, 2005) but the 
combination of both, which is more relevant 
to the earth and other planetary mantles 
have not been considered. We investigate 
the effect of mixed heating modes on mantle 
convective stirring efficiency. Using a 2-D 
finite difference code STREAMV (Samuel, 
2009) to model mantle convective motions, 
we conducted a parameter study, in which 
we varied systematically the basal Rayleigh 
number (Ra=10^5–10^8) and the 
magnitude of the dimensionless internal 
heating H. We use the variance of the 
number of passive Lagrangian tracers to 
calculate the mixing time (Olson et al , 1984) 
for each combination (Ra,H), as a function of 
the wavelength of heterogeneity. As 
expected, mixing efficiency exhibits a power 
law dependence on the basal Rayleigh 
number, however the magnitude of internal 
heating H does not seem to make a 
significant difference in stirring efficiency 
compared  to  pure  basal  heating.  We  were 
also able to identify the boundary between 
the transition oscillatory regime between the 
steady and unsteady convections, although 
more simulationsneed to run to determine 
the exact dependence of this boundary on 
thecombination of Rayleigh number and 
Internal Heating modes. 
Nonlinear Development of Equatorial 
Ionospheric Plasma Bubbles: Evolution 
of intermediate scale structures 
Bhattacharyya, A. [*A Bhattacharyya*] 
(Indian Institute of Geomagnetism, New 
Panvel, Navi Mumbai – 410 218, India; ph. 
+91-22-27480763; fax +91-22-27480762; 
e-mail: abh@iigs.iigm.res.in) 
Plasma bubbles, a phenomenon observed in 
the nighttime equatorial ionosphere, are an 
important component of space weather. 
Irregularities of intermediate scale sizes (~ 
100 m to few km) in the ionospheric plasma 
associated with equatorial plasma bubbles 
(EPBs) are capable of scattering incident 
radio waves of VHF and higher frequencies, 
and thus can cause degradation and even 
disruption in the operation of satellite-based 
communication and navigation systems such 
as the Global Positioning System (GPS).  
EPBs occur due to the growth of the 
Rayleigh-Taylor (R-T) instability on the 
bottom-side of the nighttime equatorial 
ionosphere, and their non-linear 
development depends on the ambient 
ionospheric conditions.  Using a simplified 
model to describe an electromagnetic version 
of the R-T instability, a condition has been 
obtained for the non-linear evolution of the 
instability into an EPB with complex spatial 
structure capable of scattering GPS signals, 
instead of the instability developing into a 
regular pattern of the so-called bottom-side 
sinusoidal irregularities, characterized by 
Page 8 basically a single scale length, which have 
also been observed. 
Impact of Glacial Lake Outbursts in the 
Buffer Zone of Nanda Devi Biosphere 
Reserve, Central Himalaya, Uttarakhand 
Bisht, M.P.S. [M.P.S. Bisht] Department of 
Geology, HNB Garhwal University, Srinagar 
(Garhwal), UK, India, Email: 
Glacial lake outburst floods (GLOF) have 
become major geomorphic events that bring 
about significant changes in the Himalayan 
watersheds. In Nepal Himalaya some 
progress has been made to understand the 
catastrophe caused by this event, however, 
in the Indian Himalaya that too particularly in 
the Central Himalaya of Uttarakhand, there is 
virtually no information exists. Present study 
is an attempt towards understanding the 
cause and consequences of GLOF in a 
5860.69 km2 area of Nanda Devi Biosphere 
Reserve (NDBR) which seems to have 
experienced GLOF related calamities during 
the last few decades. However, authentic 
data base is still lacking. NDBR lies in the 
upper catchments of Alaknanda river in 
Higher Himalaya. The NDBR has about 138 
glaciers that feed the Alaknanda, 
Dhauliganga  Rishiganga, Pindar and 
Goriganga rivers.  
Present study is an attempt towards 
scientifically documenting the distribution of 
lakes in the preiglacial areas of NDBR. Their 
presence itself suggests that ice volume of 
the valley glaciers in NDBR is decreasing in 
the recent times. Our preliminary data 
suggests that there are two types of lakes 
viz. (i) the meltwater stream dammed by 
terminal moraines and (ii) the lake formed 
due to the detached glacier ice. In the former 
case, we speculate that the lakes developed 
after the recession of the valley glacier 
following the Little Ice Age (LIA), whereas 
the later is attributed to the recent global 
warming related processes. 
Considering that a sizeable population 
inhabits within 47 villages in the buffer zone 
it is important that these lakes should be 
monitored for changes in their geometry as 
also to asses the critical threshold required to 
break the blockades of moraines and ice 
walls. In this paper I will be presenting the 
nature and distribution of lakes in NDBR. 
Attempts will also be made to give a synoptic 
evolution of the lakes for last couple of years 
using satellite remote sensing technique 
supported by GIS environment. 
Extreme Events in Precipitation and 
River Flows: Effect of Linear and 
Nonlinear Correlations 
Bunde, Armin [*A. Bunde], M. Bogachev and 
S. Lennartz (Institute for Theoretical Physics, 
University of Giessen, 35392 Giessen, 
Germany, e-mail: 
It is well known that both precipitation and 
river flows show multifractal behavior, which 
may involve linear and nonlinear memory. 
While precipitation usually is characterized by 
the absence of linear long-term memory 
(Hurst exponent H=1/2), river flows usually 
show linear memory (H between 0.6 and 
0.9). The question is, to which extend the 
nonlinear correlations in precipitation and 
river flows can be used to improve risk 
estimation of extreme floods or rainfalls? To 
answer this question, we concentrate on the 
return intervals between events above some 
threshold Q. We are interested in the 
probability K_Q(r) that return intervals of 
length above r occur. From K_Q(r) it is easy 
to determine the hazard function W_Q(t; 
Delta t), which describes the probability that 
in the next time window of size Delta t an 
extreme event above Q occurs, when the last 
event occurred t time steps ago. The time 
dependence of W_Q together with a decision 
algorithm can then be used for a prediction 
of extreme events. For uncorrelated data 
K_Q is an exponential and W_Q is 
approximately a constant. As a consequence, 
extreme events cannot be predicted. For 
linear correlated data K_Q can be described 
approximately by a stretched exponential 
with an effective exponent gamma, and W_Q 
decays as a power-law with exponent 
(gamma-1). For records with strong nonlinear memory K_Q decays by a power-law, 
and W_Q(t) decays as 1/t. In both cases an 
improved risk estimation is possible. To 
check this possibility, we have determined 
K_Q for a large number of precipitation and 
river flow data. In both cases K_Q can be 
described by a stretched exponential, where 
the exponent decreases with increasing 
threshold Q. For rainfall data gamma is 
usually between 0.85 and 1. Accordingly K_Q 
deviates only weakly from an exponential, 
and the nonlinear memory has only a minor 
effect on hazard prediction. For river flows, 
on the other hand, gamma varies between 
0.4 and 0.6, and the nonlinear memory 
contributes significantly to the hazard 
Page 9 The Singularity Structure of Indian 
Monosoon Rain 
Cârsteanu, Alin V. Venugopal1 and Alin A. 
Cârsteanu2, 1Centre for Atmospheric and 
Oceanic Sciences Indian Institute of Science, 
Bangalore 560012, India, e-mail: 
venu@caos.iisc.ernet.in, 2ESFM, National 
Polytechnic Institute, Av. IPN, Col. San Pedro 
Zacatenco, Mexico City, Mexico, e-mail: 
50 years of gridded daily rainfall data (from 
numerous rain gauges, spread over the 
Indian land region) offer an important source 
of information for studying the structure of 
the rainfall process during the summer 
monsoon season and the evolution of its 
extremes at climatic scales. Evidence from 
the analysis of the behaviour of wet/dry 
spells as a function of temporal scale 
suggests that, similar to other parts of the 
world, we are dealing with a (probably 
nonlinear) multi-annual dynamic modulating 
the seasonal periodicity, which in turn is 
modulating a two-level scaling process. This 
latter scaling range comprises of a 
multifractal direct (large scale to small scale) 
cascade, originating at synoptic scales, and a 
sub-seasonal temporal scaling domain of less 
understood phenomenology. The parameters 
of the synoptic-scale cascade are important 
in the occurrence of the high-intensity 
extreme rainfall events; consequently the 
understanding of their evolution under the 
modulating larger-scale forcing is the key to 
estimating the climatic-scale variability of 
such extreme events. 
The singularity spectrum of an almosteverywhere singular measure is a function 
that expresses the (fractal) dimension of the 
subset of points characterised by each Hölder 
exponent (points belonging to the measure's 
support),  as  a  function  of  that  Hölder 
exponent. This spectrum is, in turn, the 
Legendre transform of the scaling exponent 
function of the respective measure.  Since 
rainfall depths generate a non-negative, 
countably-additive function on any compact 
space-time domain, the rainfall process 
generates a measure on its space-time 
support. Its scaling properties have been 
evidenced over a finite and significant range 
of scales.  As a result, its singularity spectra 
and scaling exponents give a significant as 
well as a parsimonious description of the 
rainfall process in space and time. 
The present work analyses the singularity 
spectra and scaling exponent functions of 
daily Indian monsoon rainfall over a period of 
50 years. The two types of functions, 
theoretically connected by a Legendre 
transform, are used to reciprocally validate 
each other's estimates. The issue of climaticscale variability of intensity-durationfrequency functions generated by the 
multifractal rainfall measures is presented in 
the light of the singularity spectra's evolution 
subject to the modulating larger-scale 
Crust-mantle Structure Below the IndoGangetic Plains 
Chadha, R.K. [R.K. Chadha], D.Srinagesh 
and M.Ravi Kumar 
The Indo-Gangetic Plains is the largest and 
most dynamic foreland basin on the earth 
and is a consequence of lithospheric flexing 
in response to the continued north ward push 
of the Indian plate and loading of the 
Himalayan orogen. The sediment fill in the 
Ganga foreland basin is an asymmetrical 
sediment wedge with a  few tens of meters 
thickness in the south and increases in 
thickness up to 5 km in the northern most 
part. The sediments of the Ganga plain 
foreland basin are deposited on a gently 
north sloping lithosphere comprising of 
metamorphosed Precambrian basement, Late 
Proterozoic sediments.  A profile of 10 
Broadband seismic stations was set up by 
NGRI to study crust-mantle structure across 
the Indo-Gangetic plains.  The stratigraphy 
of the basin, revealed by the deep borehole 
located to the east of the profile, shows the 
recent alluvial sediments overlie the molassic 
Siwaliks group formation with a total 
thickness of 4.1 km  Also, deep boreholes in 
and around Kanpur reveal the sediment 
thickness varies between 300-550 m while 
the basement is mostly comprised of granitic 
We used the receiver function analysis to 
constrain crust-mantle structure across the 
Indo-Gangetic plains.  The preliminary 
analysis indicate the following: i) the 
thickness of the sediments across the profile 
varies between 600 meters to 3 km, ii) Moho 
depth varies from 36 km in the south of the 
profile to about 50 km in the north, iii) 
geometry of the depositional plane and the 
forebulge has been clearly brought out and 
iv) mantle transition zone below the IndoGangetic appears to be thickened.  
Page 10 Seafloor Characterizations using MultiBeam Bathymetry and Backscatter Data: 
Appraisal of Numerical Techniques 
Chakraborty, Bishwajit [*B Chakraborty*] 
(National Institute of Oceanography, Dona 
Paula, Goa 403 004; ph. 00-91-832-
2450318; fax 00-91-832-2450602; e-mail: 
bishwajit@nio.org); William Fernandes 
(National Institute of Oceanography, Dona 
Paula, Goa 403 004; ph. 00-91-832-
2450494; fax 00-91-832-2450602; e-mail: 
william@nio.org); Andrew Menezes  (National 
Institute of Oceanography, Dona Paula, Goa 
403 004; ph. 00-91-832-2450385; fax 00-
91-832-2450602; e-mail: 
Seafloor multi-beam bathymetric data 
analyses using numerous statistical 
techniques were long been carried out to 
understand the seafloor processes at large 
and small scales. Model technique such as 
Fourier is widely employed to estimate fractal 
dimension (D) parameter making use of 
power law. However, the superiority of semivariogram technique for fractal dimension 
was predicted employing log-log plot of the 
semi-variance, which provides comparatively 
reliable D estimates. Moreover, modern 
multi-beam systems simultaneously acquire 
seafloor bathymetric data along with the 
backscatter. Classification and 
characterization of seafloor are also carried 
out using backscatter data. However, 
calibration and artifact removals are 
established technique for multi-beam 
backscatter data before being used for 
statistical operations. In this work we have 
estimated D values of the multi-beam 
bathymetric data utilizing semi-variance 
versus lag data of different study locations 
from slope part of the western continental 
margin of India. Again, D parameters were 
also estimated for same locations using 
semi-variogram of the backscatter data. 
Differences in estimated D values were 
observed for two types of datasets even for 
same locations. Present work critically 
assesses the related reasons, which may be 
related to the involvement of different signal 
/ data processing techniques at data 
acquisitions stages. 
Slip Predictable Behaviour for Seismicity 
of Garhwal Himalaya, India 
Chamoli, Ashutosh [*A Chamoli*] (National 
Geophysical Research Institute, Council of 
Scientific & Industrial Research (CSIR), 
Hyderabad- 500606, India; ph. +91-40-
23434700; fax +91-40-23434651; e-mail: 
chamoli.a@gmail.com); V P Dimri (National 
Geophysical Research Institute, Council of 
Scientific & Industrial Research (CSIR), 
Hyderabad- 500606, India; ph. +91-40-
23434600; fax +91-40-23434651; e-mail: 
Garhwal Himalaya (India) has experienced 
three major earthquakes Kinnaur (1975, 
mb= 6.2), Uttarkashi (1991, mb= 6.5) and 
Chamoli (1999, mb= 6.4) from 1974 
onwards. The energy released during this 
period shows the presence of seismic 
quiescence which reflects the accumulated 
energy. The cumulative energy curve is 
showing step type slip predictable model 
behaviour. The energy accumulated is 
equivalent to the major earthquake of mb > 
6.4 in future. 
Fractal analysis of seismicity of Garhwal 
Himalaya (India) is carried out. The 
earthquake events during the period are 153 
for magnitude > 4.5 (Mc) and depth less 
than 80 km. The b-value estimated using 
maximum likelihood method is 1.18. The 
correlation dimension is estimated as 1.7. 
The fractal dimension of lineaments from 
satellite imagery is also estimated as 1.8 
using the box counting method for the 
region. The fractal dimension of the 
earthquake events and lineaments are 
showing correlation. The temporal and 
spatial variation of the b-value and fractal 
dimension is also interpreted to characterize 
the earthquake distribution. Fractal 
dimension variation is from 1.0 to 1.9 and bvalue variation is from 0.95 to 1.65 during 
the study period. The results are discussed in 
terms of seismotectonics of the study region. 
Space Applications in Disaster 
Assessment and Mitigation: Examples 
from Haryana State, India 
Chaudhary, Bhagwan Singh [*B. S. 
Chaudhary*] (Department of Geophysics, 
Kurukshetra University, Kurukshetra-136119, 
India; Ph.09416336163 (M); Fax 91-1744-
238035; email: bsgeokuk@yahoo.com) 
Disasters are becoming more and more 
frequently occurring events in India. Haryana 
is also suffering from a number of disasters 
such as Floods, desertification, soil erosion, 
land degradation etc. Earthquakes are also 
frequently occurring but of small magnitude 
so are not causing much concern and 
damage. Most of the damage in Haryana is 
due to floods. The present paper deals with 
the Remote Sensing applications in mapping 
Page 11 and management of floods which occurred in 
September 1995 in the state of Haryana. 
Haryana witnessed floods in the years 1978, 
1988, 1993 and 1995. The floods of 
September 1995 were most severe as major 
portion of Haryana state was affected except 
few northern districts of Panchkula, Ambala 
and Yamuna Nagar. Satellite data from IRS, 
LANDSAT and SPOT were used for carrying 
out the study.  Visual image interpretation 
was carried out for mapping flood affected 
areas. The flood affected areas were divided 
in to “standing water” and “receded water” 
categories. It was found that heavy 
downpour along with poor inland drainage, 
presence of localized depressions, breaching 
of canals and diminished carrying capacity of 
the water channels added to the woes. Back 
flush in the Drain No. 8 also caused flooding 
in the some areas of Gurgaon and Jhajjar 
districts.  An attempt has also been made for 
preparing risk maps for various zones. The 
paper also suggests suitable 
recommendation measures for mitigating the 
ill effects of floods in the state. 
Scaling and Persistence in Ground Level 
Ozone Concentrations in Delhi 
Chelani, Asha [*Asha Chelani*] (Air Pollution 
Control Division, National Environmental 
Engineering Research Institute, CSIR, Nehru 
Marg, India- 440020, 
email:ap_lalwani@neeri.res.in); R.N. Singh 
(National Geophysical Research Institute, 
CSIR, Uppal Road, Hyderabad, email: 
Air pollution is a nonlinear complex 
phenomenon depends strongly on the 
anthropogenic emissions from traffic, 
industries and household activities and 
meteorological, climatic and geographical 
conditions. Air pollution related to high 
concentration of ground level ozone is 
becoming a matter of concern due to its 
adverse effects on human health, vegetation 
and buildings. Due to participation in 
photochemical reactions, involving nitrogen 
oxides, hydro-carbons, solar radiation and 
weather conditions, ground level ozone 
concentration exhibits significant variability. 
The understanding of the variability in the 
ozone levels is useful as it provides detailed 
information about the long range temporal 
correlations, diurnal and seasonal 
fluctuations. This information can be utilized 
to initiate control measures by the regulatory 
authorities to reduce the concentrations of 
precursor pollutants. Photochemical modeling 
is the most efficient tool to understand the 
ozone characteristics over time and space 
however require huge amount of data on 
precursors and meteorology. Univariate time 
series analysis techniques provide an 
alternative way to study the periodicities, 
persistence and scaling properties in the 
concentrations. Due to nonlinearities involved 
as a result of various photochemical activities 
the techniques such as detrended fluctuation 
analysis, rescaled range analysis, correlation 
dimension are used extensively to study the 
scaling and persistence in the ozone 
concentrations. In this study scaling and 
persistence in the ozone concentrations 
observed in Delhi is analyzed using rescaled 
range analysis and correlation dimension. 
Different frequency resolutions varying from 
1h, 4h and 8h to 24h are used to study the 
variations in the scaling and persistence 
property. The analysis is carried out 
separately for different seasons to account 
for the seasonal variability in the pollutant 
It is shown that the ozone pollution in Delhi 
follows persistence but up to very short time 
duration. As expected, a decrease in the 
variability is observed in the ozone levels 
with increase in the scales from 1h to 24h. 
The results indicated the temporal scale 
shifts are allowed from 1h to 4h and 8h 
resolution and vice versa. The ozone time 
series at low resolution (24h) however, 
should be dealt separately as the scale 
transformation is not uniform. 
Discovery of Hydrocarbon in Cretaceous 
Deccan Basalt, India 
Dayal, Anurodh A.M. Dayal and S.V. 
Raju*National Geophysical Research 
Institute, Hyderabad 500 007, India, 
+Directorate General of Hydrocarbon, New 
The Cretaceous Deccan basalt is one of the 
larger and better-preserved continental flood 
basalt (CFB) provinces of the world. The 
thickness of Deccan basalts is thin (100 m) 
towards northeastern part and gradually 
thicken towards the west coast, reaching a 
thickness of 1.5 km. Geophysical studies in 
the region suggest (Kaila, 1988) a hidden 
sedimentary basin of Mesozoic age, trending 
E-W near Tapti River, bounded by E-W faults, 
named the Tapti graben, with its thickness of 
1.8 km decreasing to 400 meters near Surat 
and Akola. To search the presence of 
hydrocarbon in hidden Mesozoic sedimentary 
basin below the Deccan basalt   geochemical 
study of soil samples was carried out for the 
light hydrocarbon (C1-C4).  
Page 12 The light gaseous hydrocarbons were 
extracted from soil by treating 1gm and 3gm 
of sieved sample with  orthophosphoric acid 
in partial vacuum using a degasification 
apparatus for GC and GC-C-IRMS analysis, 
respectively. C1-C4 was measured using gas 
chromatograph. The accuracy of 
measurement of C1 – C4 components is < 1 
ng/g. The calibration of GC was done by 
using external standards with known 
concentrations of methane, ethane, propane, 
i-butane and n-butane. Carbon isotopic 
composition of 13C1 (methane), 13C2 
(ethane) and 13C3 (propane) was 
measured using GC-C-IRMS. The precision of 
the isotopic analysis for CH4 is  0.5‰. The 
carbon isotope ratio in the sample was 
determined by comparing isotope ratios with 
that of standard, NIST RM 8560 (IAEA NGS2) 
using ISODAT software. 
The adsorbed soil gas analysis for Deccan 
Syneclise indicates that the concentrations of 
methane, ethane propane and butanes are 
moderate to low Fig 2a, 2b, 2c).   The crossplots (Fig. 3) between C1-C2, C1-C3, C2-C3 
and C1-C2+ show excellent correlation (r = 
>0.9) indicating that i) these hydrocarbons 
are genetically related; ii) are not effected by 
secondary alteration during their migration 
from subsurface to subsequent adsorption on 
to the surface soil and iii) might have been 
generated from a thermogenic source 
because of the presence of C2 & C3 
components.  The compositional signatures 
displayed by methane to ethane (C1/C2), 
methane to propane ratios (C1/C3), as 
defined by Pixler (1969) is shown in Fig. 4, it 
can be seen that majority of the samples fall 
in oil window and oil & gas window. The high 
concentrations of methane, ethane and 
propane are located in the northern part, 
southern part and some of samples scattered 
throughout the Deccan Syneclise.  
Molecular ratios C1/(C2+C3) less than 50 are 
typical for thermogenic hydrocarbon gases 
with the 13C values between –30‰ to –
60‰ w.r.t. PDB. The relationship between 
13C1 and gas wetness C1/(C2+C3) indicates 
that majority of the samples fall within the 
thermogenic field (Fig. 5). The adsorbed soil 
gas data as well as 13C1 signatures suggest 
that the light gaseous hydrocarbons (C1-C3) 
are derived predominantly from thermogenic 
The main objective of   this work was to 
search the presence of hydrocarbon in the 
hidden basin of Mesozoic age below the 
Cretaceous Deccan basalt. The magnitudes 
and compositions of the near-surface soil 
gases were used to identify locations of 
anomalous seepage and in some cases to 
constrain the source or sources of the light 
hydrocarbons. The region in and around 
Upper Godavari lineament, Tapti graben and 
north of Tapti Graben indicate anomalous 
concentration of hydrocarbon gases. 
Fractal Analysis and b Value Estimation 
for Earthquakes from Northwest 
Himalayan Region 
Devi, K. Anjali *Anjali Devi* (Council of 
Scientific and Industrial Research, National 
Geophysical Research Institute, Hyderabad, 
India; Ph. +91-40-23434793; e-mail: 
anjaligeo15@gmail.com) ; V. P. Dimri 
(Council of Scientific and Industrial Research, 
National Geophysical Research Institute, 
Hyderabad, India; Ph. +91-40-23434600; 
Fax: +91-40-23434651; e-mail: 
vpdimri@ngri.res.in) and Kirti Srivastava 
(Council of Scientific and Industrial Research, 
National Geophysical Research Institute, 
Hyderabad, India; Ph. +91-40-23434793; email: kirti@ngri.res.in) 
The NW Himalayan region (30°-36°N;  69°-
80°E) has experienced some of the large 
earthquakes like the Hindukush earthquake 
in 1907 of magnitude 8.1, the Kangra 
earthquake in 1905 of magnitude 7.8 and the 
recent large Muzaffarabad earthquake 2005 
of magnitude 7.6. Seismicity of the region  is 
analyzed  using  b value and fractal 
dimension and is computed  in space  and  
time using moment magnitude (M³3.9) 
covering  a period from 1973-2009. The bvalue, b with time and b with space is 
computed from the frequency-magnitude 
relation of   earthquakes i.e.GutenbergRichter relationship. The b values range 
between 0.8 to 1.2  indicative that most of 
the seismicity is of thrust type. In most of 
the thrust zones the b-value is seen  to be 
lower while strike slip & normal faulting 
regions are  seen to have higher  b-values. 
The fractal dimension have also  been 
computed for this region and are 
approximately twice the b-value. 
Wintertime Climatic Analysis Over the 
Western Himalayas 
Dimri, Ashok Priyadarshan [*A.P. Dimri*] 
(School of Environmental Sciences, 
Jawaharlal Nehru University, New Delhi, 
India – 110067, Tel:0091-11-26704319, 
Fax: 0091-11-26741502, E-mail: 
Page 13 The eastward moving synoptic weather 
systems, Western Disturbances (WDs), are 
the most dominant source of precipitation 
over the western Himalayas. Topographic 
variability and landuse heterogeneity 
influences these circulation features in the 
lower and upper troposphere. This interaction 
determines the accumulation of wintertime 
precipitation, in the form of snow, over the 
western Himalayas. Also, this winter 
precipitation is the main source for north 
Indian rivers. In the context of today’s 
warming atmosphere, it is imperative to 
study the changes in the temperature and 
precipitation patterns over the western 
Himalayas to assess the impact of global 
warming on climatic conditions of the region. 
Therefore climatic indices are analyzed based 
on wintertime (DJF) data of 30 years (1975 – 
2006) at number of observatories situated in 
the western Himalayas. Results indicate 
enhancement in the surface air temperature 
across the western Himalayas. Percent 
number of warm (cold) days has increased 
(decreased) during 1975 – 2006 over the 
western Himalayas. Further analysis of 
precipitation reveals variable trends but 
consistent five years cyclic variation in it. 
Seismicity Analysis and Simulation of a 
Possible Tsunamigenic Earthquake from 
the Andaman Region: Impact Along the 
East Coast of India 
Dimri, V. P. [*V. P. Dimri*] (Council of 
Scientific and Industrial Research, National 
Geophysical Research Institute, Hyderabad, 
India; Ph. +91-40-23434600; Fax: +91-40-
23434651; e-mail: vpdimri@ngri.res.in); 
Kirti Srivastava (Council of Scientific and 
Industrial Research, National Geophysical 
Research Institute, Hyderabad, India; Ph. 
+91-40-23434793; e-mail:kirti@ngri.res.in); 
D. Srinagesh (Council of Scientific and 
Industrial Research, National Geophysical 
Research Institute, Hyderabad, India; Ph. 
+91-40-23434792; e-mail: 
srinagesh@ngri.res.in); V. Swaroopa Rani 
+(Council of Scientific and Industrial 
Research , National Geophysical Research 
Institute, Hyderabad, India; Ph. +91-40-
23434793; e-mail: 
Andaman region had experienced a 
significant earthquake of magnitude Mw 8.1 
in 1941 which triggered a tsunami that 
impacted the east coast of India and Sri 
Lanka. The Andaman Islands recently 
experienced an earthquake on August 10, 
2009, which occurred in the boundary region 
of India plate and the Burmese plate, at the 
northern end of the rupture zone. This 
earthquake was not of thrust type and did 
not generate a tsunami. Seismicity analysis 
for the region has shown that some of the 
earthquakes in the region are thrust type and 
some of them are of strike slip mechanism. 
The b variation with time and fractal 
dimension values in the region is seen to be 
around 1.2 and 1.94. If the region was 
associated with lower b values then one 
could think of the earthquakes from the 
region having a thrust mechanism. But still if 
one did have a thrust type earthquake in the 
region it could be tsunamigenic in nature.  
Keeping in view the devastation of this 
event, a possible great tsunamigenic 
earthquake from this region has been 
simulated to quantify the impact of tsunami 
along the east coast of India. The tsunami 
arrival times and water levels at various 
gauge locations have been estimated. 
Tsunami from this region arrives at various 
locations at different times. Impact due to 
this possible scenario is not uniform at all 
places along the east coast of India as the 
run-up heights and inundation extents are 
governed by the morphological conditions of 
the coasts. 
Influence of Debris Cover on the Melting 
Processes of Glacier - a Study on 
Chorabari Glacier, Garhwal Himalaya, 
Dobhal, Dwarika  [٭D.P. Dobhal٭] (Wadia 
Institute of Himalayan Geology, 33 GMS 
Road, Dehradun-248001, India; ph. +91 135 
2525404; fax +91 135 2625212; e-mail: 
Melt rates and ground-line (terminus) retreat 
of glaciers are strongly influenced by the 
existing debris (supra-glacial moraine) on the 
glacier surface. The debris layer can enhance 
or reduce the ablation depending on the 
distribution and thickness of the layer. 
Himalayan glaciers have generally debris 
covered ablation area, especially glaciers in 
the Central and Eastern Himalaya. The 
Chorabari Glacier is the source of the 
Mandakini River (a tributary of Ganga River) 
and is located in the Garhwal region of 
central Himalaya.  The glacier is 6.5 km long 
and has a surface area of 6.9 km2 out of the 
total catchment area of 15.8km2, and 
extends between altitudes 6600 and 3890 m. 
The accumulation area is comparatively small 
and is on steep slopes, whereas ablation area 
is relatively large, broad and covered by 
thick supra-glacial moraine (~ 67%). In the 
summer of 2004 a network of 20 stakes were 
drilled at different locations with varying 
Page 14 thickness on the ablation area. Parallel 
observations of meteorological parameters 
have been carried out from the AWS installed 
near the glacier snout (3810 m asl). 
Longitudinal surface profiles along the central 
line were drawn for the years 1962 and 2005 
to calculate net surface lowering (elevation 
change) and terminus retreat was measured 
using stakes on a fixed date method during 
the study period. The results show that the 
melt rates varied from 1.5 to 5.5 cm/day 
with a mean of 3.5 cm/day, and show a 
strong influence from the thickness of supra 
glacial moraine. The maximum and minimum 
temperature recorded during the summer 
period was 120 C and 3.10 C respectively. 
Comparing longitudinal profiles, maximum 
surface lowering due to ablation was 
observed in the upper ablation area and less 
in lower areas. It is observed that the debriscovered surface has lower melting rates. The 
terminus retreat calculated was 49.3 m with 
an average rate of 9.3 m/yr during the 
period 2003-2008; whereas during the 
period between 1962 and 2003 the glacier 
retreated 262 m with an average rate of 6.3 
m/yr. The study also reveals that the 
terminus retreat of debris covered glaciers is 
comparatively slower rate (9-12m/yr) than 
less debris covered (17-22m/yr). The 
enhanced retreat of terminus of glaciers may 
be attributed to the impact of ongoing global 
warming. Meteorological data collected 
during the period have shown that air 
temperature is a good melt indicator. 
Further, surface reflectance (snow/ice 
albedo) is influenced by the process of 
evaporation/condensation which happens on 
the glacier surface. Thus, surface 
morphology (debris, texture) needs further 
study in the Himalaya where majority of 
glaciers are debris covered. 
S-wave Spectral Modeling of 244 
Aftershocks of the 2001 Mw7.7 Bhuj 
Dutta, Sanjib Kumar [“Sanjib Kuman Dutta”] 
(National Geophysical Research Institute 
(Council of Scientific and Industrial 
Research), Uppal Road, Hyderabad-500606 
(India); ph. 0091-40-23434688; fax. 0091-
40-23434651; e-mail: 
sanjib.ism@gmail.com); Anamika Saha 
(National Geophysical Research Institute 
(Council of Scientific and Industrial 
Research), Uppal Road, Hyderabad-500606 
(India); ph. 0091-40-23434688; fax. 0091-
40-23434651; e-mail: 
anamika.ism@gmail.com); Prantik Mandal 
(National Geophysical Research Institute 
(Council of Scientific and Industrial 
Research), Uppal Road, Hyderabad-500606 
(India); ph. 0091-40-23434688; fax. 0091-
40-23434651; e-mail: prantik@ngri.res.in) 
Spectra of the horizontal components of Swave data from 244 aftershocks (Mw 2.4 – 
4.2)  of the 2001 Bhuj earthquake recorded 
(10th December 2008 – 31st March 2009) at 
3-9 broadband stations in the Kachchh 
seismic zone (KSZ), Gujarat, India, were 
analyzed to estimate the source parameters. 
The hypocenters of the selected events are 
mainly confined to the E-W trending southdipping north Wagad fault (NWF), which was 
the causative fault for the 2001 Bhuj 
mainshock. Fault plane solutions using first 
P-motion date from selected ten events 
suggest a dominant reverse motion along the 
south dipping NWF. The estimated seismic 
moment, source radius and stress drops are 
varying from 1011.3 to 1015.4 N-m, 130 to 
249 meter and 0.02 to 92 MPa, respectively. 
The depth distribution of stress drop 
estimates suggests a concentration of large 
values (≥ 60 MPa) in the 10-30 km depth 
range with a maximum of 92 MPa at 25 km 
depth, which can be attributed to the 
presence of high velocity mafic to ultramafic 
lower crust below the region. The presence of 
aqueous fluids at hypocentral depths might 
also contribute to large stress drops 
associated with lower crustal earthquakes in 
the Kachchh seismic zone, Gujarat, India. 
Occurrence of Anomalous Geomagnetic 
Event during Recent Solar Cycle 
Dwivedi, Vidya Charan [*Vidya Charan 
Dwivedi*] (Physics Department, A. P. S. 
University, Rewa, 486 003, M P, India; ph. 
+91-94246-42956; Email: 
vidya_charan2000@yahoo.com); Subhash C. 
Kaushik (Department of Physics, Government 
Autonomous Excellent College, Datia, 475 
661 M.P. Jiwaji University, India; ph. +91-
94257-76767; Email: 
In this study, we present the observations of 
solar and interplanetary sources of a very 
complex anomalous geomagnetic storm that 
is recorded during the start of the minimum 
phase of the solar cycle 23. It is the last 
major geomagnetic event occurred during 
the decline phase of solar cycle 23, this 
decline phase continued for few years up to 
2009. During the observed event a very  
prominent and abrupt increase in   He/proton 
density, and plasma  dynamic pressure as 
well as depressed alpha/ proton ratio and low 
plasma beta, and more negative Bz is 
observed at the stream interface. Two days 
Page 15 before of the event coronal hole associated 
high speed stream and 1 day  before a  halo 
earth ward directed CME, with its linear 
speed 1774 km/s at  2:54:04 on 13/12/2006 
is observed. This CME is ICME which pushed 
the forward shock  as sheath region 
producing a ring current in equator of the 
earth’s magnetic field.  
For the reported study, the hourly values of 
interplanetary plasma and magnetic field 
parameters as well as geomagnetic 
disturbance index (Dst)  and planetary index 
Ap have been used, for the period December 
13-18, 2006. It is found that the major 
geomagnetic storm with a Dst~ -146 nT, 
which occurred on 15 December, 2006, had a 
more complex interplanetary structure with a 
X- class Solar flare and an ICME + Sheath. 
The geomagnetic event recorded by large Dst 
has a peculiar characteristic with complexity 
in nature, namely its association with CME 
and ICME, though it was expected to be 
associated with the CIR, because of its long 
recovery phase. These anomalous 
characteristics are discussed and will be 
highlighted in the detailed paper. 
On the Statistics of Extremes in Space 
Weather Events – A Review on 
Statistical Methods Recently Applied on 
Solar Flare and Geomagnetic Storms 
Eichner, Jan Jan F. Eichner, Munich Re -- Geo 
Risks Research / Corporate Climate Center 
We review recent publications on the 
statistics of extreme Space Weather events 
with a focus on the estimation of return 
period values of large impacts on Earth. 
Information on the largest historic space 
weather events, like the 1859 Super Storm 
or the 1989 Quebec event, reveal a 
significant tendency of clustering of strong 
storms. It is known that the statistics of 
Solar Flares shows strong similarities to 
aftershock statistics of earthquake data, 
explaining a natural tendency for clustering. 
However, in contrast to earthquakes, 
clustered Solar Storms reveal an increase in 
impact strengths for second and third events, 
which would recommend an alternative 
statistical approach for the estimation of 
return periods for very large events on the 
basis of short data sets. 
Complex Dynamics and Multi-scale 
Structure of Sediment Transport: 
Experimental Evidence and Theoretical 
Ganti, Vamsi Vamsi Ganti, Arvind Singh, 
Paola Passalacqua, and Efi FoufoulaGeorgiou, National Center for Earth-surface 
Dynamics, St. Anthony Falls Laboratory, 
Department of Civil Engineering, University 
of Minnesota, ganti001@umn.edu 
Recently a large-scale flume experiment was 
conducted at the St. Anthony Falls 
Laboratory, University of Minnesota to 
examine the bed load transport fluctuations 
in a heterogeneous gravel bed under normal 
flow conditions. A rich multi-scale structure, 
which expresses itself as multi-fractality of 
the sediment transport series (dependence of 
sediment transport rates on sampling time), 
was documented. Further, linearity and 
dynamics similar to that of deterministic 
diffusion for bed elevations at low discharge 
conditions transiting to a pronounced 
nonlinearity and more complex dynamics for 
high discharge akin to that of a multiplicative 
cascading process was documented. 
Motivated by the observed non-Gaussian 
statistics and complex dynamics, we propose 
the application of an extension of the 
Brownian motion model, called the fractional 
Laplace motion model, for sediment 
transport which takes into account the 
heterogeneity in sediment transport driving 
mechanisms such as turbulent velocity 
fluctuations by randomizing the time over 
which the sediment particles are in motion. 
We show that our model reproduces the 
observed multi-scale statistical structure of 
sediment transport series and provides a way 
of inferring the micro-scale dynamics of 
sediment transport via the macro-scale 
statistics of sediment transport series. 
Finally, we explore our model implications in 
terms of predicting the documented nonlinearity and complexity of the sediment 
transport series and its dependence on flow 
Earthquake Epicenters Linked to the 
Positions of the Sun, Moon and Planets: 
An Instance of Organized Behavior in 
Complex Systems 
Ghosh, Santi [* S.K. Ghosh*] (National 
Geophysical Research Institute, Uppal Road, 
Hyderabad, 500 606, India; Ph. 91-40-
23434693, Fax: 91-40-23434651; e-mail: 
santighosh@rediffmail.com); M. Mishra 
(National Geophysical Research Institute, 
Uppal Road, Hyderabad, 500 606, India; Ph. 
91-40-23434693, Fax: 91-40-23434651; email: minakshi.mishra@ril.com); A. Vasanthi 
(National Geophysical Research Institute, 
Uppal Road, Hyderabad, 500 606, India; Ph. 
Page 16 91-40-23434693, Fax: 91-40-23434651; email: vasanti_kulkarni@yahoo.com) 
A connection between earthquakes and 
dynamics of the solar system has been 
suggested in the literature.  We present 
evidence of lunar-solar and planetary 
influence on earthquakes by establishing a 
statistically significant link between the 
positions of the solar bodies such as the sun, 
moon together with the seven heavenly 
planets from Mercury to Neptune and the 
earthquake epicenters.   
Our investigation originates from an ancient 
hypothesis whose enunciation would require 
the following fundamentals.  While the 
ecliptic is the apparent path of the sun’s 
annual journey on the celestial sphere, the 
longitude of an object on it is reckoned from 
the vernal equinox eastward up to 360 
degrees.  Earth’s rotation causes, at a given 
place, progressively greater longitudes to rise 
in the eastern horizon, beginning from 0 to 
360 degrees, in the span of a day.  While the 
longitudes of the sun and moon coincide at 
the instant of a New Moon (NM), they differ 
by 180 degrees at the instant of a Full Moon 
(FM).  A seismological fortnight (SF) has a 
precise definition and an approximate span of 
one-half synodic month; begins, on an 
average, one-eighth of a synodic month 
before a new moon (NM) or a full moon (FM), 
called the ‘pivotal NM’ (or pivotal FM); and 
ends three-eighth of a synodic month after it, 
while containing at least one earthquake of a 
specified magnitude threshold in its duration.  
(The definition of SF is justified eventually on 
statistical grounds). 
The precondition of the hypothesis requires 
imagining four regions on the ecliptic that are 
more or less uniformly spaced i.e. they occur 
successively at an approximate interval of 90 
degrees.  Let all the solar bodies occupy 
some or all of these four regions at the 
instant of an NM or FM.   Then the hypothesis 
forecasts earthquake(s) in the SF 
constructed about the NM (FM) at places 
where any of the four regions rises in the 
eastern horizon at the instant of the NM 
To set the stage for testing the hypothesis 
we introduce the notion of Reduced 
Longitude (RL) where RL lies between 0 and 
90 degrees and is obtained after expunging 
the maximum possible integer multiple of 90 
degrees from the longitude of a celestial 
object.  The RL of the rising point of the 
ecliptic in the eastern horizon at the instant 
of a pivotal NM (FM) at an epicenter is 
designated Reduced Ascendant (RA).  In 
what follows RL’s and RA’s refer to 
observations at the instant of the NM (FM) 
pivotal to the SF. 
In order to capture the approximate nature 
of the precondition we adopt the following 
strategy.  When the RL values of the solar 
bodies are close the hypothetical RA would 
be  determined  by  a  mean  of  the  RL’s.    If  the 
RL values are dispersed, however, the 
number of means can be more than one, 
especially when the order of the RL’s for the 
purpose of taking the mean is not unique.  
Initially, we restrict ourselves to the SF’s 
possessing a single mean corresponding to 
the situations where the longitudes of the 
solar bodies approximately coincide or differ 
by 90, 180, or 270 degrees.  The hypothesis 
predicts that an RA should have a statistically 
significant tendency to be near the mean.  
Indeed, this prediction is strongly fulfilled for 
the SF’s characterized by a single mean and 
for earthquakes of magnitude 7.0 or above in 
the period 1900-2006.  The hypothesis 
possesses remarkable internal consistency.  
If the mean (M) rule is indeed genuine then, 
occasionally, a pair of unconnected 
earthquakes in an SF should simultaneously 
display adherence to the rule and the overall 
number of such SF’s should be statistically 
significant.  This is eminently born out in 
If earthquakes, in general, abide by certain 
rules then, occasionally, the RA’s 
corresponding to a pair of unconnected 
earthquakes in an SF would be close and the 
overall number of such SF’s should be 
statistically significant.  Indeed, the RA pairs 
for the pairs of shallow earthquakes of 
magnitude 7.0 or greater belonging to the 
common SF’s during 1900-2006 show a 
statistically significant number of pairs of 
proximate values.  This sets the stage for the 
search for other rules. 
Just  as  mean  is  an  attribute  of  the  9  RL’s, 
inspection reveals another attribute 
designated Pseudomean (PM) which has a 
tendency to be close to an RA.   Like mean it 
can assume single or multiple values.  
Initially, we focus on SF’s characterized by a 
single PM corresponding to shallow 
earthquakes of magnitude 7.0 or greater for 
the period 1900-2006.  Once again the RA’s 
in this class show a statistically significant 
tendency to be near the PM.  As in the case 
of the mean rule, an occasional pair of 
unconnected earthquakes in an SF display 
simultaneous adherence to the PM rule and 
the overall number of such instances is 
statistically significant.  This provides a 
cross-corroboration of the PM rule. 
Page 17 For SF’s characterized simultaneously by a 
single mean and a single PM the RA’s also 
have significant affinity for four additional 
attributes.  The first among this is called 
MPM which obeys a symmetry in that it is an 
average of the mean (M) and the PM.  The 
remaining three attributes follow similar 
symmetry.  The above six attributes are 
shown to be statistically significant also for 
smaller earthquakes, namely, the ones with 
magnitude 6.0 or above but below 7.0.  In 
other words the study of large events predict 
the rules for the smaller ones. 
The statistical confirmations for the efficacy 
of the rules obtain pervasively, through 
varied strategies and across diverse 
segments of data.  Remarkably, the 
attributes embody symmetry, so much so 
that they could not have been deduced from 
the data without such considerations.  
Further, the operative framework exhibits a 
high degree of consilience, i.e. its various 
facets accord with and complement one 
another.  Ultimately, the statistical 
confirmations, the symmetry features and 
the consilience together render the rules 
extraordinarily compelling. 
It turns out that the hitherto unexplained 
proximate pairs of RA’s  belonging to 
common SF’s follow straightforward 
extensions of the first three of the aforesaid 
six attributes in the context of multiple 
means and multiple PM’s, thus supporting 
the theory that RA’s, in general, are 
determined by astronomical attributes 
specific to an SF. 
Chaotic nonlinear systems possess 
remarkable propensities to generate ordered 
spatial, temporal or spatiotemporal 
structures.  Typically, such systems describe 
physical situations where there exists some 
connection with the outside environment in 
the form of a consistent small perturbation of 
the main system.  As the outside influence is 
slowly altered a series of sudden changes 
occurs, during which the behavior of the local 
system changes in dramatic fashion.  It is 
possible that due to the chaotic states 
prevailing in the seismically active regions, 
the minuscule gravitational forces of the 
solar bodies constructively organize 
triggering of earthquakes.  The astronomical 
rules, in that case, would represent the 
spontaneously arising ordered structures 
common in such systems. 
Stratospheric ozone Depletion and Its 
Management: Lessons from the Montreal 
Protocol for Combating Other Artificially 
Induced Perturbations 
Gopichandran, R. R Gopichandran, PhD, PhD, 
LLB, Principal Research Scientist: 
Environment & Climate Change Wing, 
Gujarat Energy Research & Management 
Institute, Research, Innovation & Incubation 
Centre, Gandhinagar, Gujarat, 
One of the mainstays of successful 
preventive management of environmental 
perturbations is access to empirical 
evidences of causes and impacts of 
perturbations, that in turn drives appropriate 
regulation and market based interventions. 
This is best seen in the case of the 
implementation of the Montreal Protocol on 
substances that deplete the ozone layer. 
• Detailed observations on the incidence of 
UV B through real time observations across 
latitudes in India, and related sunburn 
indices are complemented by well structured 
institutional mechanisms to ensure phase out 
of ozone depleting substances aligned with 
India’s commitments to the Montreal 
• While these are positive attributes of the 
Protocol, technology leap-frogging has been 
another salient aspect.  
• Ironically inspite of this leap-frogging the 
Protocol inadvertently ran into issues of 
having to develop an accelerated phase out 
plan targeting interim alternatives. It is also 
burdened with the task of tackling ozone 
depleting substances (ODS) in refrigeration & 
air-conditioning equipment that have reached 
their end-of-life stages. If concerted efforts 
are not taken expeditiously, the advantages 
derived by phasing out ODS are expected to 
be offset by the release of ODS from such 
equipment destined for scrapping. 
The present effort is to  
• Highlight some of the insights gained in the 
process of responding to these challenges 
and contextualize them with respect to 
growing uncertainties in the developing 
mitigation and adaptation strategies vis-a-vis 
climate change.   
• Emphasize location-specific strategies to 
reduce vulnerabilities of ecosystems to 
perturbations that may impose themselves 
individually or synergistically. 
Page 18 Extreme Event for Earthquake Triggered 
Grasso, JR [*JR Grasso*], M Tahir,  
Stephane Garambois , A Helmstter L Tatard 
(LGIT, OSUG, CNRS, Université Joseph 
Fourier Grenoble, BP53X, 38041 Grenoble 
cedex France; ph 33476635256, fax: 
33476635256, email:grasso@obs.ufgrenoble.fr, tahirm@obs.ujfgrenoble.fr;Stephane.garambois@obs.ujfgrenoble.fr, agnes.helmstetter@obs.ujfgrenoble.fr, ltatard@obs.ujf-grenoble.fr) 
A large part of the fatalities induced by 
earthquakes are driven by the direct or 
indirect impacts of largest triggered 
landslides. We revisit various major 
sequences of earthquake triggered landslides 
to extract constrains and sensitivities on their 
space and size distribution as a function of 
the faulting style. Within the catalogue 
accuracies, the landslide distribution mimics 
the seismic aftershocks distribution in space. 
It suggests that the same rupture mechanics 
works for both instability types. Two different 
processes have been identified: a near field 
mechanism occurring at a distance of a few 
rupture fault lengths and a far field one 
occurring at a distance larger than ten fault 
lengths. We address the question of scales 
by (i) cross analysis of size and space 
distributions and (ii) deterministic analysis of 
the largest landslides setting. We review the 
possible candidates responsible for these 
scale-dependant behaviors, including 
dynamics of earthquake shaking through PGA 
and PGV as well as static brittle deformation 
induced by the earthquake slip. 
Multicomponent Seismic Applications in 
Coalbed Methane Development 
Gupta, Shilpi Shilpi Gupta and Partha Pratim 
Mandal Dept. of Applied Geophysics Indian 
School of Mines University, Dhanbad 
Coalbed Methane (CBM) is an almost pure 
form of natural gas found in subsurface 
coals. Methane and coal are formed together 
during coalification, a process in which plant 
biomass is converted by biological and 
geological forces into coal. Methane is stored 
in coal seams and the surrounding strata and 
released during coal mining. In recent 
decades it has become an important source 
of energy in United States, Canada and other 
countries. On a global basis coalbed methane 
contribute more than 1TCF(trillion cubic feet) 
of gas per annum. So development of 
coalbed methane is a potentially important 
new energy source. Newly developed 
technologies demonstrates that seismic 
methods are an invaluable tool in CBM 
prospecting and development. Vertical 
seismic profiles obtained at Ardley coal zone 
strata near Red Deer, Alberta implies the 
effectiveness of multicomponent seismic 
applications In CBM development. Zerooffset surveys show that a broad-band mini-P 
vibratory source is ideal for imaging the coal 
zone. The extraction of Vp/Vs from P-wave 
and S-wave seismic data yields a high Vp/Vs 
value in the near surface (~5), decreasing to 
approx. 2.5 at 300m depth. Reflectivity 
values from walkway surveys conclude that 
converted-wave data better resolve the 
upper coal contact than compressional-wave 
data. Time-lapse seismic imaging, a 
numerical modeling will be able to monitor 
changes in the reservoir resulting from 
dewatering, allowing producers to optimize 
enhanced CBM production throughout 
reservoir life. Extreme situation for 
production of CBM can be easily solved 
through the application of Multicomponent 
survey. Thus this method has a great role in 
the development of CBM exploration. 
Complex Seismic Activity at Koyna, India 
Gupta, Harsh Harsh Gupta, National 
Geophysical Research Institute, (Council of 
Scientific and Industrial Research), 
Hyderabad, 500007, India, 
We examine the case of Reservoir Triggered 
Seismicity (RTS) at Koyna, India. Soon after 
the impoundment of the Koyna dam in 1961, 
triggered earthquakes started to occur.  
Globally the largest RTS event of M 6.3 
occurred at Koyna on December 10,1967. 
Later, another reservoir, Warna, was 
impounded in the near vicinity of Koyna. 
Over the past 46 years, 20 earthquakes of M 
≥ 5 and several thousand smaller events 
have occurred in the Koyna- Warna region. 
Detailed investigations of this continued 
seismic activity in the Koyna- Warna region 
over the past 42 years has shown that:  
1. Earthquakes occur in a small area of 20 X 
30 sq. km, there are no other seismically 
active regions in the near vicinity. 
2. Earthquakes have been occurring every 
year following an increase in the water level 
during the monsoon period. 
3. A rate of loading of 12 m/week appears to 
be a necessary but not a sufficient condition 
for M ≥ 5 earthquakes to occur in the region. 
Page 19 4. Most M ≥ 4 earthquakes are preceded by 
well-defined foreshocks and are followed by 
5. It is inferred that the region was stressed 
close to critical before the impoundment of 
the Koyna reservoir and capable of having an 
M 6.8 earthquake. However, loading of the 
reservoir and the corresponding changes in 
the pore pressure regime introduced 
heterogeneity in the media and thereby 
triggering earthquakes. So far the seismic 
energy released is about 3/4th of a M 6.8 
earthquake. The remaining energy would be 
released in the next couple of decades or so. 
The occurrence of the future M  ≥ 5 
earthquakes would be governed by the 
Kaiser effect (water level in the reservoir 
exceeding the previous maxima), rate of 
loading and duration of retention of high 
water levels in the reservoir. 
6. Some precursory changes in b- value, 
spatial/temporal fractal dimensions, stress 
drop and corner frequency have been noticed 
prior to moderate size Koyna earthquakes. 
7. A quasi-dynamic nucleation process is 
observed 100s hours before M ~ 4 
8. A detailed study of the RTS sites globally 
revealed some of their common 
characteristics, which discriminate them from 
natural earthquake sequences also occurring 
in the same region. 
Beginning from August 2005, with the 
support of the Department of science and 
Technology, Government of India, monitoring 
of earthquakes in real time started in Koyna 
(after the formation of the Ministry of Earth 
Sciences (MoES), this program was taken up 
by MoES). Through V-Sat connectivity 
seismic data from several stations were 
brought to NGRI in real time and analysis 
carried out. It was found that earthquakes of 
M ~ 4 are preceded by well-defined 
nucleation. If the nucleation could be 
identified in real time, it could lead to shortterm earthquake forecast. This was indeed 
achieved. The following short-term forecast 
was made on May 16, 2006: 
The Challenge of Diagnosing a Nonlinear 
Geophysical Theory of Floods in River 
Networks and Potential Applications 
Under Climate Change 
Gupta, Vijay [*V K Gupta*] (Department of 
Civil and Environmental Engineering, 
Cooperative Institute for Research in 
Environmental Sciences, University of 
Colorado, Boulder, CO. 80309; ph. 303-492-
3696; fax 303-492-5077; e-mail: 
For decades, hydrologic studies have shown 
that quantiles of the annual peak streamflow 
distribution, e.g. the mean annual peak flow, 
the 100-year peak flow, have a power-law 
dependence on upstream basin area with an 
exponent that usually varies between 0.5 
and 1.0. A new geophysical theory has been 
developing to understand the scaling in peak 
flows in terms of space-time rainfall, runoff 
generation processes and water transport 
dynamics in channel networks. The central 
hypothesis of the theory is that scaling in 
peak flows for RF-RO events arises from 
solutions of mass and momentum 
conservation equations in self-similar 
network topologies and geometries in the 
limit of large drainage areas. Scaling is an 
emergent property that is common to many 
nonlinear geophysical systems. The key idea 
of diagnostics that serves as the intellectual 
framework for future development of the 
theory will be illustrated through examples 
involving data analysis and theoretical 
calculations. Our ability to better understand 
how physical processes and conditions are 
connected to the spatial statistical variability 
of peak streamflows, can be used to predict 
peak flows across multiple spatial and 
temporal scales. Self-similar river networks 
serve as the heart of the theory and they 
change little over the time scales at which 
climate change is viewed. Therefore, 
applicability of the theory does not depend 
on assumptions regarding climatic 
stationarity or non-stationarity due to global 
warming that is currently being discussed. 
Landslide Dam Outburst Flood in the 
Satluj Valley, Himachal Pradesh, India 
Gupta, Vikram Vikram Gupta ,Wadia Institute 
of Himalayan Geology,33 General Mahedeo 
Singh Road Dehra Dun – 248 001 
(Uttaranchal),Tel. + 91 135 2525403,Fax 
+91 135 2625212 Email. vgupta@wihg.res.in 
Landslides and related mass movement 
activities are common in the Himalayan 
terrain. Owing to the inherent geomorphic 
setting in the form of steep slopes and 
narrow valleys, these landslides often 
temporarily dam the major rivers or their 
tributaries, thus creating lakes. The landslide 
dams are formed in a wide range of 
geomorphic setting by variety of natural 
processes like excessive rainfall, snowmelt 
and earthquake. Most common type of these 
Page 20 dams is due to rock and debris avalanches, 
rock and soil slumps and debris flow. These 
landslide dammed lakes breach at a 
timescales varying from days to years after 
their formation depending upon the 
characteristics of the material involved and 
the quantum of water flowing through the 
channel. Often these lakes fail 
catastrophically causing landslide lake 
outburst flooding (LLOF) in the downstream 
The examples of the landslide dammed lakes 
and their subsequent breaching were 
documented in literature worldwide. From 
the northwestern Himalaya, these were 
reported on the Indus river (1841), 
Birehiganga river (1893; 1970), Dhauliganga 
river (1956), Rishiganga river (1967), 
Patalganga river (1970), Bhagirathi river 
(1978), Madhmaheshwar river (1998), Kali 
river (1998), Satluj river (1998; 2000) and 
Spiti river (2005). The present article 
discusses and analyzes the formation and 
breaching of historical and recent landslide 
dams in the Himalaya. The causes and 
consequences of the landslide dams created 
on Tibetan plateau in the Satuj river in 2000 
and in the Paree-Chu Nala in 2005 the have 
been analyzed in great detail. The data 
indicate that the frequency of the creation of 
the dams in the Himalayan terrain has 
increased in the recent past possibly due to 
climate change in the form of increase in 
temperature in the Tibetan Plateau and the 
more area falling under the influence of 
The outcome of this study has two major 
implications. First with the repeated LLOF in 
the Satluj valley, the risk posed by the 
natural hazard must be evaluated. This is 
well exemplified by 2000 and 2005 LLOF in 
the area. With these case studies, further 
work aim to link landslide / flood activity to 
temperature and rainfall intensity duration 
trends so that stochastic relationship may be 
developed. Secondly, if a successful 
relationship between the temperature, 
melting of glaciers, landslide activities and 
the flash flood can be established for the 
Himalayan region, analysis of the palaeoflood deposits may provide important new 
information on past variation in temperature 
/ rainfall trends. Equally such relationship 
may predict changes in mass movement 
activities in the Himalayan region based on 
modeled regional impact of global climate 
Active Deformation Within MBT-HFT 
Tectonic Wedge in Trans-Yamuna Dun of 
NW Sub Himalaya: Implication on 
Seismic Slip Partitioning 
Guru Dayal, Singh [*Guru Dayal Singh*] 
(National Geophysical Research Institute, 
Council of Scientific & Industrial Research 
(CSIR), Hyderabad; ph. +91-40-23434700 ; 
fax. +91-40-23434651; e-mail: 
gdsingh323@yahoo.co.in) ; Anand K. Pandey 
(National Geophysical Research Institute, 
Council of Scientific & Industrial 
Research(CSIR) Hyderabad ph. +91-40-
23434700 ; fax. +91-40-23434651; e-mail: 
akpandey@ngri.res.in); Prabha Pandey 
(National Geophysical Research Institute, 
Council of Scientific & Industrial 
Research(CSIR), Hyderabad; ph. +91-40-
23434700 ; fax. +91-40-23434651; e-mail: 
The exhumation of Sub Himalaya along the 
Himalayan Frontal Thrust (HFT) by 
recurrence earthquake led to the growth of 
Duns as piggyback longitudinal synclinal 
basin, which is bounded by Main Boundary 
Thrust (MBT) as roof thrust, in the north. The 
HFT is active since 0.5 Ma with the peak 
activity postdating-100 ka in the Garhwal, 
Sub-Himalaya (Thakur et al., 2007). A series 
of out-of-sequence structures within the 
MBT-HFT wedge partitions the intra-wedge 
deformation, in the Trans Yamuna Dun 
valley. These out-of-sequence thrust 
originating from basal décollement. Attitude 
of these out-of sequence structures increases 
towards MBT and in MBT vicinity they often 
become vertical with dominant strike-slip 
movement. The evidences of active 
deformation along these out-of-sequence 
thrust are observed in the form of structural 
and geomorphic expressions. These 
geomorphic landforms like piedmont fan and 
river terraces have yielded the ages ranging 
from 33.9 Ka to 4.9 Ka. The cross cutting 
relationship of out-of-sequence structure 
with these Quaternary landforms clearly 
suggest that the structures are active even 
during early Holocene. 
The development of out-of-sequence thrust 
within MBT-HFT tectonic wedge is analyzed in 
light of critical wedge theory, which suggests 
that all orogenic wedges develop taper 
toward their undeformed foreland and move 
only after attaining a critical angle (Davis et. 
al., 1983). This critical taper is attained 
either in the form of (a) under-critical 
wedges that increase their topographical 
slope by internal thickening or (b) overcritical wedges that decrease their 
topographical slope by internal deformation. 
Page 21 In Trans Yamuna Dun Valley, the MBT-HFT 
wedge taper is < 15° and ~ 10 km bulk 
shortening on the basis of retrodeformable 
cross sections, which is comparable to the 
adjoining regions. These parameters along 
with the observed movement on these outof-sequence thrust suggests a bulk 
shortening in the hanging wall by internal 
thickening leads to a condition analogous to 
the under-critical wedge. The long term 
strain obtained by retro-deformable crosssection (Power et al., 1998) or short term 
neotectonic / paleoseismic data (Wesnousky 
et al., 1999; Kumar et al., 2001) suggests a 
comparable shortening rate with ~600 to 
1000 yrs repeat interval for great earthquake 
event.  A bulk slip of the same is 
accommodated on these out-of sequence 
thrusts within MBT-HFT wedge in addition to 
the rupture along HFT during great 
Devis et al., 1983. JGR, 88, 1153-1172. 
Kumar et al., 2001. Science 294, 2328–
Power et al., 1998. GSA Bulletin 110, 1010-
Thakur et al., 2004. Journal of Asian earth 
Science, 29, 305-319. 
Wesnousky et al., 1999. Tectonics 18, 967-
Is There a Timescale Where the 
Clausius-Clapeyron Relation Describes 
Precipitation Rate Changes? 
Haerter, Jan [*J O Haerter*] (Max Planck 
Institute for Meteorology, Hamburg, 
Germany; ph. +49 40 41173-106; fax +49 
40 41173-298; email: 
jan.haerter@zmaw.de); P Berg (Institute for 
Meteorology and Climate Research, 
University of Karlsruhe and Karlsruhe 
Forschungzentrum, Karlsruhe, Germany; ph. 
+49 7247 82 4793; peter.berg@imk.fzk.de); 
S Hagemann (Max Planck Institute for 
Meteorology, Hamburg, Germany; ph. +49 
40 41173-106; fax +49 40 41173-298; 
email: s.hagemann@zmaw.de) 
Based on a total of 190 years of 
observational precipitation data at a temporal 
resolution of five minutes from six stations in 
Germany we obtain scaling relations of the 
probability distributions of precipitation 
intensity with temperature and timescale. By 
producing a cascade of averaging intervals, 
we obtain the behavior of precipitation 
intensity from the instantaneous to the daily 
resolution. The distribution of the shortest 
timescale displays a strict power-law tail with 
a remarkable coefficient. We explore whether 
this coefficient arises as a consequence of 
the self-regulating nature of the moistureprecipitation system. When temperatures are 
distinguished or when precipitation and dry 
periods are mixed at longer averaging 
intervals the distribution acquires a more 
elaborate scaling. The coefficient of increase 
with temperature is a continuously and 
strongly varying function of temperature and 
of percentile and does not show an abrupt 
increase as noted previously. Especially for 
extreme precipitation the increase with 
temperature is found to be large at the 
shortest timescales, whereas at longer 
timescales the situation is reversed. We 
caution that the Clausius-Clapeyron relation 
may not provide an accurate estimate of the 
temperature dependence of precipitation at 
any temporal resolution. 
Quantitative Modeling of Extreme 
Seismic Events 
Ismail-Zadeh, Alik [*A T Ismail-Zadeh*] 
(Geophysikalisches Institut, Karlsruhe 
Institute of Technology, Hertzstr. 16, 
Karlsruhe 76187, Germany; e-mail: 
alik.ismail-zadeh@gpi.uka.de; Institut de 
Physique du Globe de Paris, 4 Place Jussieu, 
Paris 75252, France; e-mail: aiz@ipgp.fr; 
International Institute of Earthquake 
Prediction Theory and Mathematical 
Geophysics, Russian Academy of Sciences, 
Profsoyuznaya str. 84/32, Moscow 117997, 
Russia; e-mail: aismail@mitp.ru); Alexander 
Soloviev (International Institute of 
Earthquake Prediction Theory and 
Mathematical Geophysics, Russian Academy 
of Sciences, Profsoyuznaya str. 84/32, 
Moscow 117997, Russia; e-mail: 
soloviev@mitp.ru); Valera Rozenberg 
(Institute of Mathematics and Mechanics, 
Ural Branch, Russian Academy of Sciences, 
S. Kovalevskoy ul. 16, Yekaterinburg 
620219, Russia; e-mail: 
Extreme seismic events are manifestations of 
complex behavior of the lithosphere 
structured as a hierarchical system of blocks 
of different sizes. Driven by mantle 
convection these lithospheric blocks are 
involved into relative movement, resulting in 
stress localization and earthquakes. I present 
a quantitative approach to simulation of 
earthquakes in models of block-and-fault 
dynamics, which feature the occurrence of 
large seismic events, earthquake clustering 
and interaction. Several applications of this 
model to study earthquake sequences and 
extreme events in the models will be 
discussed: the regional models (the Tibetan 
Page 22 plateau and Himalayans, and the Sunda Arc 
region) and a global spherical model. 
Gottwald-Melbourne Test for Chaos of 
Nonlinear Fluctuations in Complex 
Laboratory Plasmas 
Iyengar, A.N. Sekar, A.N. Sekar Iyengar1, 
S.Lahiri2 and D.Roy Chowdhury3, 1Saha 
Institute of Nuclear Physics, Kolkata, India, 
2Dinabandhu Mahavidyalaya, Bongaon, North 
24 Parganas, 743235, Kolkata, India, 
3Techno India, EM4/1, Sector V, Salt Lake, 
Kolkata 700091, Kolkata, India 
Plasma is a highly complex system exhibiting 
a rich variety of nonlinear dynamics over a 
range of parameters. Glow discharge 
plasmas possess a unique characteristic of 
not only being complex but also have a 
negative resistance  under some conditions. 
Hence depending on the conditions, it can 
exhibit either a transition from order to chaos 
or vice versa. Chaos in laboratory plasmas 
are explored by standard techniques of 
analysis like correlation dimension, and 
Largest Lyapunov exponent. As far as we are 
aware no work has been reported of 
correlating Largest Lyapunov exponent with 
Hurst exponent which is a standard 
diagnostics for long range correlations. In our 
work  we  have  found  that  at  the  transistion 
from order to chaos, the Largest Lyapunov 
exponent exhibits a sharp jump by a factor of 
ten, while the Hurst exponent shows a drop 
from 1 to 0.72 which is a typical value of real 
world fractal signals(chaotic). In addition we 
have for the first time carried out a 0-1 test 
suggested by  Gottwald and Melbourne[1] on 
laboratory plasma data and observe  clear 
transition from order to chaos which will be 
reported in this paper.   
Constraints on the Tectonic Setting of 
the Andaman Ophiolites, Bay of Bengal, 
India, From SHRIMP U–Pb Zircon 
Geochronology of Plagiogranite 
Jafri, Syed [*S H Jafri*] (National 
Geophysical Research Institute (Council of 
Scientific and Industrial Research), Uppal 
Road, Hyderabad-500007, India; ph.91-40-
23434682; fax 91-40-23434651; email: 
syed1401@rediffmail.com); D Srinivasa 
Sarma (National Geophysical Research 
Institute (Council of Scientific and Industrial 
Research), Uppal Road, Hyderabad-500007, 
India; ph.91-40-23434700; fax 91-40-
23434651; email: dssarma@ngri.res.in); Ian 
R. Fletcher (Department of Applied Geology, 
Curtin University of Technology, Bently 6845, 
Western Australia; ph.61-8-9266 9076 Fax: 
61-8-9266 3153; email: 
I.Fletcher@curtin.edu.au); Neal McNaughton 
(John de Laeter Centre, Curtin University of 
Technology, Bently 6845, Western Australia; 
Ph.61-8-92661244; fax:61-8-9266 2377; 
email: n.mcnaughton@curtin.edu.au ) 
Andaman ophiolites are well exposed in 
Andaman group of islands, which is a part of 
Sunda-Burmese double chain arc system in 
the Bay of Bengal, India. Plagiogranites 
occurring on the eastern margin of the 
southern part of South Andaman island show 
the occurrence of interstitial vermicular and 
micrographic intergrowths of quartz and 
plagioclase. They are tonalites to 
trondhejemites in composition, and the Rb, 
Yb, Ta and Y abundances in these 
plagiogranites are characterisitic of volcanicarc affinity. 
U-Pb ion microprobe (SHRIMP) dating of 
zircons from plagiogranites of Andaman 
ophiolite, has yielded a weighted mean 
206Pb/238U age at 93.6 + 1.3 Ma, 
interpreted as the age of its crystallization. 
The plagiogranite which is characterized by 
an island arc affinity is inferred to have 
intruded the gabbro unit of the Andaman 
ophiolites at 93.6 Ma in a subduction zone 
setting. The Andaman ophiolitic rocks which 
were formed before this intrusive event, 
(probably Early Cretaceous), are believed to 
have been obducted onto the leading the 
edge of the Eurasian continent during the 
Middle Cretaceous to Late Oligocene 
subduction event, prior to the currently 
active Late Miocene Andaman- Java 
Using For bush Decrease Events for the 
Prediction of Geomagnetic Storms
Jain, Manjula [Manjula Jain], Govt. Model 
Science College, Jabalpur (M.P.) 482001, 
India Email: rainbow_mjain@yahoo.co.in 
Forbush decrease (FD) is sudden decrease in 
the counting rates of neutron monitors, 
caused by fast Coronal Mass Ejections 
(CMEs) mostly associated with intense X-ray 
solar flares. The geomagnetic storm is known 
to occur simultaneously with large Forbush 
decrease events. Both phenomena have 
common origin – entry of the Earth into an 
interplanetary shock – therefore, study of FD 
can be used to anticipate an impending 
storm. The author has analyzed 61 FD events 
of magnitude >= 3.5% occurred during the 
23rd solar cycle (1996-2008) which are 
registered by Moscow Neutron Monitor 
Page 23 Station. Temporal evolution of individual FD 
event is studied along with the variation in 
interplanetary magnetic field intensity, solar 
wind velocity and geomagnetic activity 
indices- Dst and Kp index. It is shown that 
besides the known enhanced disturbances in 
the magnetic field of the Earth, the FDs in 
majority of events are accompanied by 
abrupt increase in the solar wind velocity. 
Though the correlation coefficient between 
the magnitude of FD and Dst index is 0.3, 
but 91% of FD events (55 out of 61) are 
associated with geomagnetic storms. The 
onset time of FD is found to be few hours 
earlier than that of the storm; this fact can 
be used to forecast a geomagnetic storm. 
The present investigation also verifies the 
relation of occurrence of FD with fast CMEs 
and subsequent transients. 
Storm Coals: A Extreme Depositional 
Systems in South Brazil Deposits 
Johansen, Lila [*M A M Medeiros*] 
(Department of Geology, University of Rio de 
Janeiro State, Rio de Janeiro, Brazil; R. São 
Francisco Xavier, 524, 4001-A, Maracanã; 
ph. 55-21-9638-6119; e-mail: 
geomalmann@gmail.com); L M Johansen 
(Department of Geology, University of Rio de 
Janeiro State, Rio de Janeiro; Brazil PosGraduated Program; R. São Francisco Xavier, 
524, 4001-A, Maracanã; ph. 55-21-2334-
0660; e-mail: lilajohansen@gmail.com) 
The brazilian paleozoic coals have low quality 
due to the high content of ash and sulfur. 
The presence of coals layers with HCS 
structures has led to reinterpretation of the 
depositional history of the studied deposits. 
It was observed that the coal deposits of the 
Carboniferous Province of Santa Catarina 
corresponding to allochthonous sediments, 
redeposited along the prodelta facies. The 
coal analysis, in the state of Rio Grande do 
Sul (a near site), denoted that the coal have 
been reworked by storm waves, but were 
redeposited in shallow platform conditions. 
Associated with these deposits was found 
paraconglomerates with plant fragments, 
clasts of fine-grained and lytic sandstone, 
which extend for up to 5 km with widths not 
exceeding 200 meters. These 
paraconglomerate are interpreted as 
hyperpycnal flows associated with flood 
deposits. The deposition of these coals is 
associated with regressive pulses within 
transgressive post glacial event of Permian 
that filled the Paraná Basin. 
Attenuation Relation for Garhwal 
Himalaya Obtained Using Damped Least 
Square Method 
Joshi, Anand  A.  Joshi  Department  of  Earth 
Sciences, Indian Institute of Technology 
Roorkee, Roorkee, India, e mail: 
anushijos@yahoo.co.in);  A. Sinvhal 
(Department of Earthquake Engineering, 
Indian Institute of Technology Roorkee, 
Roorkee, India); [*Ashvini Kumar*] 
(Department of Earth Sciences, Indian 
Institute of Technology Roorkee, Roorkee, 
India); F. F. Aptikaev (O.Yu.Shmidt Institute 
of the Physics of the Earth, Russian Academy 
of Sciences, Bolshaya Gruzinskaya str., 10, 
Moscow, Russia)  
 and O. O. Erteleva (O.Yu.Shmidt Institute of 
the Physics of the Earth, Russian Academy of 
Sciences, Bolshaya Gruzinskaya str., 10, 
Moscow, Russia) 
Attenuation relations are most commonly 
used relations for predicting strong motion 
parameters. In the recent past the Garhwal 
Himalaya has been visited by two 
devastating earthquakes viz., the Uttarkashi 
earthquake of 20th October, 1991 and the 
Chamoli earthquake of 19th March, 1999. 
These earthquakes are among very few 
major Himalayan earthquakes recorded in 
the strong motion network. In this work 
strong motion data of these two earthquakes 
from 20 stations have been used to develop 
regression relation of peak ground 
acceleration. The selection of regression 
model is based on various statistical tests 
like mean, standard deviation, correlation 
coefficient and stand error of estimate. 
Coefficients of regression model are 
estimated using the method of damped least 
square inversion. Following regression 
relation has been obtained for this region: 
PGA = 1.106e1.54M e.00323R (R+15)-1.51 
Where PGA is peak ground acceleration in 
cm/sec2, M is the surface wave magnitude 
and R is the hypocentral distance in km. The 
resolution and correlation matrix of the 
coefficient suggest that the values of 
coefficients of regression relation obtained 
from present inversion gives minimum error 
and better resolution. In order to compare 
the efficacy of developed relation we have 
compared the root mean square error (rmse) 
in computing peak ground acceleration from 
present relation with that obtained from 
attenuation relations of applicability for 
worldwide and Himalayan earthquakes. It is 
seen among all studied relations minimum 
rmse error of value .64 is obtained from the 
developed relation which indicates its 
Page 24 applicability in estimating strong motion 
parameter of major earthquakes in this 
region. Statistical check of various properties 
also indicates suitability of this relation over 
existing relations for prediction of strong 
ground motion. 
Simulation of Strong Motion Parameters 
Using Deterministic Modeling of Finite 
Source of Two Himalayan Earthquakes 
Joshi, Anand [*A. Joshi*] (Department of 
Earth Sciences, Indian Institute of 
Technology Roorkee, Roorkee, India, e mail: 
Peak ground acceleration during an 
earthquake plays an important role in 
deciding the engineering parameters of large 
structure. Scarcity of desired strong motion 
data poses hindrance in estimation of these 
important parameters at the site of 
construction. Recently it has been shown in 
different studies that semi empirical 
approach is among most successful methods 
in  simulation  of  strong  ground  motion  for 
Himalayan earthquakes (Joshi and Patel, 
1997; Kumar et al. 1999; Joshi, 1997, 1998, 
2004; Joshi et al. 1999, 2001). In this paper 
attenuation relation derived from strong 
motion data of the Uttarkashi and the 
Chamoli earthquake has been used in the 
semi empirical method initially develop by 
Midorikawa (1993) and latter modified by 
Joshi et al. (2001). 
Strong ground motion for the Uttarkashi (Ms 
7.0) and the Chamoli (Ms 6.6) earthquakes 
were simulated at those stations which has 
recorded these earthquakes using semi 
empirical approach. The parameters of 
rupture modeled for the Uttarkashi and the 
Chamoli earthquakes are same as those 
identified earlier by Joshi (2004). The 
division of rupture of target event into 
subevents is based on self similarity laws. In 
an attempt to check the dependency of 
attenuation relation on this semi empirical 
approach, strong ground motions were 
simulated by using the developed relation 
and the attenuation relation of Abrahamson 
and Litehiser (1989), respectively. The root 
mean square error in the peak ground 
acceleration computed using the developed 
attenuation relation and that given by 
Abrahamson and Litehiser (1989) in the semi 
empirical approach is obtained as .675 and 
.451 respectively.  This shows that the 
attenuation relation given by Abrahamson 
and Litehiser (1989) can be preferred over 
the developed relation for simulation of the 
Uttarkashi and the Chamoli earthquake 
because of its wide range of applicability in 
terms of magnitude and distance parameter. 
Further the rmse obtained while directly 
using the attenuation relation of Abrahamson 
and Litehiser (1989) is .682 which indicate 
the advantage of semi empirical method over 
conventional attenuation relation in 
predicting strong motion parameter. 
 Abrahamson, N.A. and Litehiser, J.J., 1989. 
Attenuation of vertical peak    
Joshi 2004, A simplified technique for 
simulating wide-band strong ground motion 
for two recent Himalayan earthquakes, Pure 
and App. Geophys., 161, 1777-1805. 
Joshi A., and Patel, R.C. 1997, Modelling of 
active lineaments for predicting possible 
earthquake scenario around Dehradun, 
Gharwal Himalaya, India, Tectonophysics,  
283, 289-310. 
Joshi, A., Brijesh Kumar, Sinvhal, A. and 
Sinvhal, H., 1999, Generation of synthetic 
accelerograms by modelling of rupture plane, 
ISET Journal of Earthquake Technology, 36, 
Joshi, A., 1998, Study of Uttarkashi 
Earthquake in Terms of Rupture Model and 
Isoseismals, Journal of Geophysics,14, 133-
Joshi, A., 1997, Modelling of peak ground 
acceleration for Uttarkashi Earthquake of Oct 
1991, Bull. Ind. Soc. Earth. Tech., 34, 75-96.  
Joshi A., Shakti Singh Narwal, and Kavita 
Giroti, 2001, The simulation of ground 
motion using envelope summation, Pure 
appl. geophys. (PAGEOPH), 158, 877-901. 
Kumar, D., Khattri, K.N., Teotia, S.S. and 
Rai, S.S., 1999, Modelling of accelerograms 
for two Himalayan earthquakes using a novel 
semi empirical method and estimation of 
accelerogram for 
a hypothetical great earthquake in the 
Himalaya, Current Sci. 76, 819–830. 
A GIS Tool to Automatically Extract Area 
Altitude Distribution of Glaciers 
Kaur, Rakesh [*Rakesh Kaur*], (National 
Technical Research Organization, New Delhi, 
India, Email: 
rakeshnarwal2003@yahoo.com); B. S. 
Chaudhary (Department of Geophysics, 
Kurukshetra University, Kurukshetra – 
136119, India, Email: 
Page 25 bsgeokuk@yahoo.com) and A. V. Kulkarni 
(Earth Sciences and Hydrology Division 
(MESG), Space Applications Centre (ISRO), 
Ahmedabad-380 015, India, Email: 
The snow in the Himalayan ranges plays a 
very significant role in the water resource 
management of various basins in northern 
states of India having rivers like Indus, 
Ganga and Brahmaputra. But this source of 
water from glaciers is not permanent as 
glacier dimensions are constantly changing 
with time. All over the world glaciers are 
retreating in response of climate change. 
These retreating glaciers have significant 
implications for the ongoing rise in global sea 
level, water resources and hydropower 
potential. In order to measure glacier retreat, 
it is urgently required to first accurately 
determine its area altitude distribution. 
Similarly, mass balance and area 
accumulation ratio (AAR) measurements are 
also dependent on area altitude distribution 
of the glacier. Traditional methods of 
determination of area altitude distribution are 
time consuming and expensive. Therefore, a 
tool is developed in Arc GIS environment for 
automatic extraction of area enclosed by 
glaciers in each elevation zone. In this paper 
this tool will be discussed which determines 
the area altitude distribution of glaciers 
automatically. The tool is tested for its 
performance in Baspa Basin having and it is 
found to be efficient in terms of time and 
accuracy. This tool will be useful in various 
snow field studies. 
Interplanetary Transient Solar Wind 
Flows and Extremely Disturbed 
Geomagnetic Field Conditions 
Kaushik, Subhash [*Subhash C. Kaushik *] 
(Department of Physics, Government 
Autonomous Excellent College, Datia, 475 
661 M.P. Jiwaji University, India; ph. +91-
94257-76767; Email: 
subash_kaushik@rediffamil.com); Vidya 
Charan Dwivedi (Physics Department, A. P. 
S. University, Rewa, 486 003, M P, India; ph. 
+91-94246-42956; Email: 
In the present investigation we have 
analyzed the interplanetary transients 
associated with the extremely disturbed 
geomagnetic field variation. These 
interplanetary transients are large scale 
structures containing plasma and magnetic 
field expelled from the active regions of solar 
atmosphere. We have studied the Bidirectional Electron Heat Flux (BEHF) Events. 
These are the fast magnetized plasmoids 
moving away from the Sun in to 
interplanetary space. As they come to 
interplanetary medium the interplanetary 
magnetic field drape around them. This field 
line draping was thought as possible cause of 
the characteristic eastward deflection and 
giving rise to complex geomagnetic activities. 
In this paper a systematic study has been 
performed to analyze these BEHF events 
occurred during solar cycle 23, by dividing 
them in two categories 1. Associated with 
coronal holes (CH) and 2. Non - Associated 
with coronal holes. In this work we used 
hourly values of IMF data obtained from the 
NSSD Center. The analysis mainly based on 
looking into the effects of these transients on 
earth’s magnetic field. The high-resolution 
data IMF BZ and solar wind data obtained 
from GOES satellite was available during the 
selected period. Dst and Ap are taken as 
indicator of geomagnetic activities. It is 
found that Dst index, solar wind velocity, 
proton temperature and the Bz component of 
magnetic field have higher values and 
increase just before the occurrence of these 
events. Larger and varying magnetic field 
mainly responsible for producing the shortterm changes are observed during the BEHF 
events associated with coronal holes 
Investigation of Intense Geomagnetic 
Storms and Associated Cosmic Ray 
Intensities: A Correlative Study 
Kaushik, Subhash [*Subhash C. Kaushik *] 
(Department of Physics, Government 
Autonomous Excellent College, Datia, 475 
661 M.P. Jiwaji University, India; ph. +91-
94257-76767; Email: 
subash_kaushik@rediffmail.com); K. A. Firoz  
(Korea Astronomy and Space Science  
Institute, Deajeon, 305 348,  South Korea, 
Email:  kazifiroz2002@gmail.com) 
In this study we discuss the behavior of 
cosmic rays during the phase of highly 
intense or ultra intense geomagnetic storms, 
as shocks driven by energetic coronal mass 
ejections (CME’s) and other interplanetary 
(IP) transients are mainly responsible for 
initiating large and intense geomagnetic 
storms. Observational results indicate that 
galactic cosmic rays (CR) coming from deep 
surface interact with these abnormal solar 
and IP conditions and suffer modulation 
effects. In this paper a systematic study has 
been performed to analyze the CRI variation 
during super storms i.e. very intense 
geomagnetic storms with Dst index  ≥ -300 
nT. The neutron monitor data of three 
stations Oulu (Rc = 0.77 GV), Climax (Rc = 
Page 26 2.97 GV) and Huancayo (Rc = 13.01 GV) well 
distributed over different latitudes and hourly 
values of IMF parameters derived from 
satellite observations near Earth IP medium 
from  OMNI  Data  base  is  used  for  the  period 
spanning over solar cycles 20, 21, 22 and 23. 
It is found that AP and AE indices show rise 
before the forward turnings of IMF, while the 
Dst index shows a classic storm time 
decrease. The analysis indicates that the 
magnitude of all the responses depends on 
BZ component of IMF being well correlated 
with solar maximum and minimum periods. 
Transient decrease in CR I with slow recovery 
is observed during the storm phase duration. 
Complex Tectonics and Recent 
Earthquakes in Northeast India: A  
Kayal, J. R. [*J R Kayal *] , (CSIR Emeritus 
Scientist, School of Oceanographic Studies, 
Jadavpur University, Kolkata 700032, India, 
Email: jr.kayal@gmail.com) 
The complex seismotectonics of northeast 
India region is reviewed in this paper. The 
different tectonic/seismic zones are 
examined using the teleseismic and the 
recent local microearthquake network data. 
The earthquakes in the northeast Himalayan 
collision zone are deeper (0-80 km) 
compared to that (0-20 km) in the western 
Himalayan seismic zone. The deeper 
earthquakes in the northeast Himalaya are 
mostly caused by transverse tectonics 
including the 1950 great earthquake (Ms 8.7) 
that occurred in the Assam syntaxis zone. 
The earthquakes in the Indo-Burma region 
on the other hand, are caused by the atypical 
continent-continent subduction; the 
shallower  (< 90 km) events show normal 
and strike-slip faulting, and the deeper 
earthquakes, depth 90-180 km, are 
generated by thrust faulting within the 
dipping seismic zone. The Shillong plateau 
activity is explained by the plateau pop-up 
tectonics, and the intense activity along the 
Kopili fault by transverse tectonics that 
extend to the northeast Himalaya. The lower 
activity of the Bengal basin is attributed to 
thicker sediments and locking of the plate 
below the basin. 
Further, seismic structures of the earthquake 
source zones are imaged using the large data 
set of the temporary and permanent 
microearthquake networks in the region. The 
earthquake source zones below the Shillong 
plateau is imaged as a high velocity structure 
at a depth 20-30 km in the lower crust. A 
high velocity structure is also imaged at a 
depth of 40 km at the end of the Kopili fault, 
below the Assam valley, which is inferred to 
be the source zone for intense activity along 
the ~300 km long Kopili fault, a transverse 
structure to the Himalayan trend. The Kopili 
fault is well reflected as a low velocity 
structure down to 30 km depth. The thick 
Bengal basin sediment is well imaged as a 
low velocity structure down to a depth of 20 
km.  The frequency-magnitude relation of the 
earthquakes, b-value, is mapped along with 
the fractal dimension mapping. The fractal 
dimension of the seismogenic 
faults/structures are imaged estimating 
correlation dimension of the relocated 
epicenters. These two maps clearly illustrate 
the circular pop-up seismic structure beneath 
the Shillong plateau and a long transverse 
structure beneath the Kopili fault as the most 
active source zones beneath these two areas. 
Index of Recurrence Asymmetry in 
Complex Systems: Application to 
Sunspots and Earth Surface 
Temperature Anomalies 
Kiselev, Vlad [*V B Kiselev*] ("PKS" 
Department, Saint-Petersburg University of 
Information Technologies, Mechanics and 
Optics, Saint-Petersburg, Russia, 197101, 
Kronverksky, 49; ph. +7-921-9559129; fax, 
+7-812-2328602; e-mail: 
It is possible to obtain data series of the 
same phase space variables from different, 
spatially separated parts of complex, spatial 
extensive systems (such as Sun, Earth 
atmosphere, human body, etc) as well as 
from whole system. Sunspot data are 
available for the full Sun, the northern 
hemisphere, and the southern hemisphere. 
Earth surface temperature anomalies data 
are available in similar way. Well known 
indexes of asymmetry (standard NA and 
modern LOS) are instantaneous indexes that 
don’t contain any information about system 
dynamics and interaction between 
hemispheres and the whole system. We 
introduce a new index -- index of recurrence 
asymmetry, called RRNA, which not have 
these disadvantages. We describe graphs of 
this index constructed for the following data: 
sunspots, Earth surface temperature 
anomalies (ocean, land, ocean and land) and 
show zones of asymmetry. 
Page 27 Productivity Pattern in the Equatorial 
Indian Ocean During the Last 300,000 
Krishna, Moturi Moturi S. Krishna1, Nittala S. 
Sarma1, Sk. G. Pasha1, M. Rama Reddy1, V. 
Balaram2, M.G. Yadava3, David M. 
Anderson4, 1Marine Chemistry Laboratory, 
Andhra University, Visakhapatnam, India – 
530003, 2National Geophysical Research 
Institute, Hyderabad,  
India–, 3Physical Research Laboratory, 
Ahmedabad, India -NOAA, Boulder, Colorado, 
We reconstructed the variability in the 
surface ocean primary productivity in the 
equatorial Indian Ocean during the last 300, 
000 years using multiple (paleo) productivity 
proxies, calcium carbonate, organic carbon, 
biogenic silica (opal) and barium in bulk 
sediments.  The gravity sediment core of 5 m 
long was recovered from the equatorial 
Indian Ocean region at 3oN and 77oE at a 
water depth of 4050 meters.  Oxygen and 
carbon isotopic composition was determined 
on surface dwelling planktonic foraminifer 
Globigerinoides sacculifer.  Chronology of the 
sediment core was established by tuning 
oxygen isotopic composition (δ18O) of G. 
sacculifer with SPECMAP track and 
radiocarbon ages measured on coarse 
carbonate fraction (+25µm).  Three 
characteristic carbonate minima occurred 
during 292-274 kyr, 200-190 kyr and 85-56 
kyr periods.  Peak carbonate concentration 
was recorded during  27-25 kyr period.  
Calculated calcium carbonate accumulation 
rates (AR) were ranged from 28.3 g cm-2 
kyr-1 to 192.5 g cm-2 kyr-1 with minimum 
accumulation during glacial and maximum 
accumulation during interglacial periods.  
Organic carbon showed two characteristic 
maxima during 211-191 kyr and 25-24 kyr 
periods.  Organic carbon accumulation rates 
were ranged from 0.37 g cm-2 kyr-1 and 
4.31 g cm-2 kyr-1 with high accumulation 
rate during the same periods.  Bulk 
sedimentary barium varied between 0.002% 
and 0.014% (wt %) with two characteristic 
minima during 208-191 kyr (avg: 0.004%) 
and 27-25 kyr (avg: 0.004%) periods.  
Maximum Ba concentrations were recorded 
at around 120 kyr and 284 kyr.  Barium to 
aluminium ratio was also shown more or less 
similar pattern as bulk sedimentary barium.  
Our results have shown that there are no 
clear glacial-interglacial variations in surface 
water primary productivity during the last 
300 kyrs.  However, 100 kyr cyclicity was 
observed in calcium carbonate indicating 
preservation/dissolution cycles. 
Consequences of the Fossil Fuel 
Extraction on the Climate Change of the 
Kumar, Basant [*Basant Kumar] 
(Department of Applied Sciences, Maharaja 
Agrasen Institute of Technology (GGSIP 
University), Sec. 22, PSP Area, Rohini, Delhi-
110086, India. Ph 91-9811230489, e-mail 
basakum@yahoo.com)* ; 2Ram Kishore 
(Department of Applied Sciences, Maharaja 
Agrasen Institute of Technology (GGSIP 
University), Sec. 22, PSP Area Rohini, Delhi - 
110086, India. Ph. 91-9899764547, e-mail 
The understanding of the causes of climate 
change of the earth is a very complex 
process. It can not be explained on the basis 
of one or two factors because it is governed 
by the various processes going  on for a long 
time in the solar system. We are creating 
more complexity in the climate change by 
ruthless exploitation of natural resources of 
the earth  which is resulting in the climate 
change at a faster rate. The climate change 
such as global warming due to burning   of 
fossil fuels, i.e. coal, minerals, gases etc. is 
very well  reported  in the literature, but very 
little work has been done on the contribution 
of the  extraction of fossil fuel from the 
earth’s crust, in changing various physical 
properties of the earth, affecting the climate 
of the earth.  
The extraction of fossil is a very old practice 
but for last 6-7 decades, it has increased 
very rapid. The imbalance between 
extraction and generation of fossil fuel is 
increasing day by day, which is changing the 
climate, of the earth in a different way. The 
change in the mass of the earth due to the 
extraction of fossil fuel from the earth’ crust,  
is changing the moment of inertia of the 
earth because the  extraction  is at the 
farthest distance from the axis of rotation. 
Thus a small change in the mass in the earth 
crust will affect the moment of inertia 
substantially. In order to conserve the   
angular moment ( L = IW), the angular 
frequency of the earth on its own axis as well 
as around the sun, must change. On the 
other hand the extraction of fossil fuels may 
not  be uniform throughout the earth, as the 
extraction  in northern hemisphere is 
reported to be  much higher than in southern 
hemisphere which may cause weight 
imbalance around the axis of rotation of the 
earth as well as around the sun. This may 
result in the change of the angle of tilt of the 
earth. This change in the tilt may be a very 
important factor, contributing in changing the 
climate at various places of the earth. Thus,  
Page 28 the extraction of fossil fuels may contribute 
to the  change in  various mechanical 
properties of the earth,  making the process 
of climate change such as global warming 
more complex to understand.   
We  shall    give  an  account  of    the  change  in  
the physical properties of the earth  rotation 
such as moment  inertia and angular velocity 
resulting from the extraction of fossil fuel 
and  predict its impact on climate change of 
the earth. 
1Ex-Research Scholar, Radio & Atmospheric 
Science Division, NPL, New Delhi –110012 
2Ex- Scientist ‘G’ (Director’s Grade), National 
Physical Laboratory, New Delhi –110012 
Deciphering Zeolitic Formations in 
Deccan Basalt – An Indirect Method of 
Finding Groundwater in Hard Rock Using 
Integrated Geophysical Approach 
Kumar, Dewashish [*Dewashish Kumar*] 
(Groundwater Division, Scientist-C, 
Groundwater Building 1st Floor Room No. 
111, Mail Box No.77, National Geophysical 
Research Institute {Council of Scientific and 
Industrial Research}, Uppal Road, Hyderabad 
– 500606, Andhra Pradesh, INDIA, Ph. 
No.+91-040-23434700 extn. 2636; Fax: 
+91-040-23434651, E-mail: 
dew_kumar@yahoo.co.uk); V. Ananda Rao 
(Groundwater Division, NGRI, 
anand9949@gmail.com); E. Nagaiah 
(Groundwater Division, NGRI, 
Groundwater is the important natural 
resources of the earth that we use daily and 
is elixir for human life. The scenario both in 
present day and future is challenging in the 
area of water resource sector especially in 
hard rock eg. Deccan Traps. Geologically 
Deccan volcanism is associated with the 
separation of the Seychelles micro continent 
from India and this breakup itself is often 
ascribed to the reunion plume head impact. 
The trappean rocks are the result of fissure 
type volcanic eruptions which spread over 
the vast area in western, central and 
southern parts of India at the end of the 
Mesozoic era (about 70 million years before). 
In hard rock water is available mainly due to 
secondary porosity while in Deccan trap - 
another variety of hard rock, the presence of 
zeolites along with weathered/fractured 
basalt is the direct indication of availability of 
water. Zeolites are porous crystalline solids 
and they are associated with 
vesicular/weathered basalts. These zeolites 
are a group of silicates containing true water 
of crystallization; hence identification of the 
zeolite/zeolite cavities which are the 
contributing sources for groundwater in 
Deccan traps is a challenging task. 
Keeping in view Integrated study using 
surface 1-D Vertical Electrical Sounding 
(VES), 2-D Electrical Resistivity Imaging 
(ERI), geological drilling & litholog 
preparation and lastly sub-surface resistivity 
logging using specially designed logging tool 
was carried out both for zeolites and 
groundwater in Pune, Nasik and Aurangabad 
regions of Western India. In total 39 2D 
resistivity survey completed and covered 
about 18 km profiles. 
The present integrated geophysical and 
geological interpretation had revealed zeolite 
bearing zones both at shallow and deeper 
depths. The ERI results have clearly shown 
the signature of high resistivity anomaly 
indicating the cavity effect or could be the 
cavity created due to zeolite, which is our 
main interest here in addition to groundwater 
exploration. In some of the 2-D sections the 
specific range of resistivity between 40 – 50 
Ohm-m and 90 – 105 Ohm-m had quite 
clearly indicated the zeolite bearing zone. At 
the same time the low resistivity 
zone/anomaly in few 2-D sections had also 
clearly indicated the potential water bearing 
zone(s). The layered structure of the basalt 
formation is seen in the 2-D resistivity 
sections with appreciable resistivity contrast. 
In addition, 1-D sounding results had 
delineated mostly the 4 layer case of the 
sub-surface. The % of RMS error for the 1-D 
sounding interpretation ranges from 2.79 to 
5.86 which shows the interpreted model 
parameters (resistivity and thicknesses) of 
the resistivity curves represents very close to 
the sub-surface resistivity values for the 
different layers. The qualitative nature of the 
model VES curves indicated namely A, H and 
K type and its combination which shows 
variation in the geological set up of the 
basaltic rock. Based on the confirmed 
resistivity anomaly/results five borewells 
drilled up to a maximum depth of 91.5 m and 
successfully encounter the aquifer zone in 
association with zeolite. Latter resistivity 
logging was performed at six borewells right 
from the static water levels to the bottom 
depth to confirm our results. On combined 
interpretation the characteristics resistivity 
obtained for fresh basalt in association with 
zeolite have a resistivity ranges between 90-
105 Ohm-m while the weathered zeolitic 
basaltic layer lies between 40-50 Ohm-m as 
compared to 500-600 Ohm-m which 
corresponds to fresh basalt without the 
presence of zeolite. It is very interesting to 
Page 29 note that the change in resistivity values in 
resistivity logs beautifully reflected 
conductive and resistive formations and the 
kinks observed in these logs very well shows 
even the minor variation in resistivity 
including the saturated part of the aquifer. 
Finally the resistivity logging aids in drawing 
the final conclusions and serves as a 
supplementary tool to understand better the 
geological set up of the Deccan basalt in the 
present study. 
Keywords: 1-D sounding, 2-D Imaging, 
Resistivity Logging, Deccan Traps, Zeolites, 
Groundwater, Western India 
Super Magnetic Storms: Hazard to 
Lakhina, G. [G. S. Lakhina], Indian Institute 
of Geomagnetism, New Panvel (W), Navi 
Mumbai, India 
Magnetic storms are the most important 
component of space weather effects on 
Earth.  Super-intense magnetic storms 
(defined here as those with Dst < -500 nT, 
where Dst stands for the disturbance storm 
time index that measures the strength of the 
magnetic storm), although relatively rare, 
can be hazardous to technological systems in 
space as well on ground. Such storms can 
cause life-threatening power outages, 
satellite damage, communication failures and 
navigational problems. The data for such 
magnetic storms during the last 50 years is 
rather scarce. Research on historical 
geomagnetic storms can help to create a 
good data base for intense and super-intense 
magnetic storms. The super-intense storm of 
September 1-2, 1859 is analyzed in the light 
of new knowledge of interplanetary and solar 
causes of storms gained from the spaceage 
observations.  We will discuss the results in 
the context of some recent intense storms, 
and also the occurrence probability of such 
super storms.   
Assessing the Characteristics of Extreme 
Rainfall Through an Examination of 
Atmospheric Circulation States Using 
Self Organizing Maps 
Lennard, C J [*C J Lennard*] (Climate 
Systems Analysis Group, University of Cape 
Town, Western Cape, South Africa; ph. 
+27216502684; fax +27216505773; e-mail: 
Extreme rainfall events are associated with 
significant societal and infrastructural 
impacts including fatalities and the massive 
displacement of communities. The 
Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change 
(IPCC)  has  reported  an  increase  in  the 
frequency and intensity of extreme rainfall 
and also state it is "very likely" that such 
events will become more frequent and 
intense as a result of greenhouse gas 
warming of the atmosphere (IPCC, 2007). 
Investigations into future changes in climate 
as a result of this warming are dependent on 
general circulation models (GCMs) that 
characteristically have coarse spatial 
resolutions. However, extreme rainfall is 
usually expressed at the regional scale and it 
is beyond the ability of GCMs to resolve this 
scale. Furthermore, regional climate models 
(RCMs), which dynamically downscale from 
the GCM resolution to a finer one, do not 
accurately capture the frequency and 
intensity of extreme rainfall events nor their 
temporal and spatial characteristics. In this 
context several questions emerge: 
regionally, have extreme rainfall events 
become more or less frequent, during which 
seasons and do we understand why? How do 
we assess extreme rainfall in the future given 
the effect global warming may have and the 
many uncertainties pertaining to potential 
changes in atmospheric dynamics and their 
influence on extreme rainfall. Are the 
changes in the characteristics of extreme 
rainfall a symptom of global warming or a 
consequence of the natural variability of 
climate on longer time scales?  
In an attempt to answer these questions, the 
synoptic scale circulation (the primary driver 
of local weather) was related to extreme 
rainfall events using a type of artificial neural 
net. Self organizing maps were used to 
identify circulation states associated with 
exreme rainfall in South Africa through the 
non-linear projection of the probability 
density function of high-dimensional input 
data onto a two-dimensional array of nodes. 
This technique spans the full continuum of 
data space results in the categorization of 
daily synoptic atmospheric data into 
characteristic synoptic circulations. With this 
information it is possible to relate extreme 
precipitation events to a driving circulation 
mode and examine the events within this 
synoptic context. It is thus possible to not 
only document changes in the characteristics 
of extreme precipitation such as frequency 
and intensity but also investigate the 
dynamical drivers of the change. To this end, 
decadal, seasonal and monthly attributes of 
the synoptic states will be related to the 
extreme rainfall data obtained from station 
records and the attributes of these presented 
and discussed. 
Page 30 Long-term Memory in Climate Records: 
Clustering of Extreme Events and the 
Detection Problem
Lennartz, Sabine [*S. Lennartz*] and A. 
Bunde (Institute for Theoretical Physics, 
University of Giessen, 35392 Giessen, 
Germany, e-mail: 
In the first part of this presentation, we start 
with a review of our recent results on the 
statistics of return intervals between events 
above some threshold q (a) in long-term 
correlated (monofractal) records 
characterized by a Hurst exponent H>1/2 
where the linear autocorrelation function 
decreases by a power law and (b) in 
multifractal data sets where the linear 
autocorrelation function vanishes and only 
nonlinear correlations are present. Both 
monofractal and multifractal data sets play 
an important role in geoscience, examples 
are temperature records, river flows, and 
precipitation. It is shown how the long-term 
memory affects the statistics of the return 
intervals and how it can be used for a 
superior risk estimation. In the second part, 
we focus on the detection problem in longterm correlated records, which is particular 
relevant in the context of global warming. In 
the detection problem, one is interested in 
the probability W(Delta) that an observed 
trend Delta occurs naturally, from which the 
anthropogenic part A_Q(Delta) of the 
temperature increase within a given 
confidence interval Q can be derived.  It is  
shown that for confidence intervals with Q 
above 80%, analytical expressions for 
W(Delta) and A_Q(Delta) can be derived, 
which request as input solely the Hurst 
exponent, as well as the temperature 
increase Delta obtained from the linear 
regression line and the standard deviation 
sigma_t around it. We apply this 
methodology to a large number of global and 
local stations and discuss the results. 
Study on Hydro-chemical Change of 
Epikarst Spring Based on Extreme 
Weather in the Jinfo Mountain of 
Chongqing: A Case Study of Extreme 
Drought 2006, Chongqing 
Linli, Li [*Li Linli, Xie Shiyou*],           
Li Yong, (College of Geographical 
Sciences,Southwest University Chongqing 
400715 China) 
              Fig1. Location of study area 
To understand Epikarstificaiton mechanism 
and the hydro-chemical change of karst 
water that responds for the extreme 
weather, a research was carried out at the 
Shuifang spring under extreme drought, 
2006. A site`s automatic records (CTDP300) 
was fixed up which can inspect five indexes 
such as rainfall, pH, conductivity, water 
temperature and water level. According to 
the data from automatic records the study 
was showed that: (1) Karst dynamic process 
of Epikarst zone is highly sensitive to the 
environment. Hydro-chemical change and 
karst intensity of Epikarstic water were 
obviously controlled by soil CO2 and H2O. 
Under extreme drought weather of long time 
the soil CO2 mainly flowed from deeply soil 
to shallow soil and released into atmosphere 
in the end. It leaded that Pco2 of karst water 
depressed and its SIc and pH inclined. It 
indicated that flow direction of soil CO2 was 
different contrasted with normal weather for 
little rainfall even in summer. Its intensity of 
karst also depressed. (2) “Soil CO2 effect” 
occurred for rain did not happened under 
drought weather of long time through diurnal 
inspect. On the contrary soil CO2 was 
accelerated to release into atmosphere for 
higher hot rain water and did not enter into 
karst  system.  It  leaded  that  Pco2  of  karst 
water depressed and its SIc and pH inclined. 
(3)Temperature of Epikarst water depressed 
even in summer under drought weather of 
long time because of strong evaporation (4) 
Epikarst water is formed in the open system 
of the carbonate rock-water-CO2 interaction. 
So, in the study on Epikarst water chemistry, 
both the water-rock interaction and the 
variation of CO2 with space and time have to 
be taken into account. Only when the threephase system (carbonate rock-CO2-water) is 
considered as a whole, the regularity of the 
spatial and temporal variations in karst 
hydrochemistry could be understood. 
Key words: Epikarst spring, extreme 
drought, hydro-chemical change of karst 
water, Jinfo mountain  
Background: Jinfo mountain is located at the 
south of Chongqing city, which is the north 
branch of Dalou mountain system., 
extending 28°50′-29°20′N and 107°32′-
107°20′E(Fig 1). it is in the subtropical 
humid monsoon zone with annual mean 
temperature of 8.2 and precipation of 
1,434.5 mm on the top of the mountain. 
Since karst is quite developed in this area, 
few surface water generated in the cathment 
except intermittent stream, which is at the 
flat bottom of the depression whith relatively 
thick soil distribution and lower permeability, 
eventurally into shuifang spring  
Page 31 Methods 
Automatic monitoring of rainfall, water stage, 
water temperature, pH and specific 
To measure detailed hydrochemical 
variations in epikarst aquifer, a Greenspan 
CTDP300 multi-channel datalogger was used 
in Shuifang spring, which includes the diffuse 
flow from karst fracture and/or conduit flow 
from karst conduits(the sensors being fixed 
tightly in a PVC tube with small holes on its 
wall, and then the PVC tube was located in 
flowing spring water about 10 cm below base 
flow`s surface). Rainfall, water stage, water 
temperature, pH and specific conductivity 
have been monitored every 15 min since 
June 2006. the logger was calibrated prior to 
deployment using pH(4,7 and 10) and 
conductivity(1412 us/cm) standards. Handheld water quality (WTW multiline P3 pH/LFSET) measurements were undertaken to 
check the reliability of data logger 
measurements at monthly interval, when 
retrieving data from data logger was 
conducted in each month. It is found that 
hand held meter and logger measurements 
are identical within 4% error. 
Ananysis of concentrations of major ions in 
In situtitrating was used to measure the 
HCO3- and Ca2+ of water with the Aqumerck 
Alkalinity test and Hardness test. The 
resolutions are 6 and 1 mg/l respectively. To 
understand the general chemistry of other 
major ions in the systems, water samples 
from the Shuifang spring was collected by 
filtering with 0.45um Minisart filter and 
analyzed in the lab. The analysis methods 
used were standard titration for bicarbonate, 
atomic absorpiton for K+ and Na+, titration 
with EDTA for Ca2+, Mg2+ and SO42-, and 
the Mohr titration for Cl- 
Estimate CO2 partial pressure and 
calcite/dolomite saturation index from 
continuous records of temperature, pH and 
specific conductivity The CO2 partial pressure 
and calcite/dolomite saturation index of 
spring water are related to its calcium, 
magnesium and bicarbonate concentrations, 
pH and temperature as discribed in an earlier 
study. However, while the continous 
monitors directly measure pH and 
tempeature, continuous calcium, magnesium 
and bicarbonate concentrations have to 
estimated indirectly. the Shuifang spring 
composition is dominated by calcite/dolomite 
dissolution. So, calcium and magnesium are 
the major cations and bicarbonage is the 
major counter-balancing anion. 
Consequently, these ions dominate the 
electrical conductivity and their 
concentrations are directly poportional to the 
eletrical conductivity. As the electrical 
conductivity is directly measured 
continuously, this feature is used to estimate 
calcium, magnesium and bicarbonate 
concentrations from the continuous electrical 
conductivity data. For the purpose, the 
linkages between concentrations and 
electrical conductivity need to be established 
from the spot-sampled monthly data. 
At the Shuifang spring experimental site, 
these concentrations are linearly related to 
specific conductivity by the relationships 
[Ca2+]=0.2032×spc+2.4794     r2=0.9954 
[HCO3-]=0.0095×spc+0.2029   r2=0.982 
Fig 1. Linear relationships between electric 
conductivity vs. calcium and bicarbonate,    
respectivity for the Shuifang spring 
Respectively, where Kcalcite and Kdolomite 
are the temperature-dependent equilibrium 
constant for calcite and dolomite 
respectively. If SI>0, water is supersaturated 
with respect to the mineral; if SI<0, water is 
aggressive to the mineral; and if SI=0, the 
equilibrium reaches. 
Hydrochemical varaition of Shuifang spring in 
long time scale 
In abserved time the waterlevel of Shuifang 
spring sustainedly falled under longtime 
drought through the curve of rain contrasted 
with curve of spring waterlevel(Fig 2). It 
meaned the discharge of spring sustainedly 
dropped down. At the same time spring 
water temperature and CO2 partial pressure 
also began to drop down. But pH and Sic of 
spring water sustainedly increased. Maybe 
there are two factors which caused these 
variation. The first, because of sustained high 
air temperature soil humidity decreased and 
void volume of soil increased. 
Soil CO2 more easily emissed into 
atmosphere than ordinary weather. Thus soil 
CO2 which entered into epikarst water is 
sustainedly reduced. It also leaded that CO2 
partial pressure of spring water decreased 
and pH and Sic of spring water increased. 
The second the water temperature of spring 
sustainedly decreased because strong 
evaporation must absorb too much heat  
Fig 2.Hydro-chemical variation curve of 
Shuifang spring in Jinfo 
Diurnal hydrochemical varaition of Shuifang 
spring under summer drought 
Page 32 In  abserved  time  it  rained  at  8:15.  the 
amount of rain was 7.5 mm. The spring 
water temperature began to increase at 
9:45. pH, Sic and specific conductivity of 
spring water also began to increase and the 
CO2 partial pressure began to 
decrease(Fig3). The added soil CO2 which 
rain soluted did not enter into the epikarst 
water system because rain temperature 
began to increase in summer drought. It 
leaded that pH, Sic and specific conductivity 
of spring water inclined and CO2 partial 
pressure of spring water decreased. 
Fig 3.Hydro-chemical variation curve of 
Shuifang spring in Jinfo mountain(2006/8/1  
A Nonlinear Synthesis for Understanding 
Atmospheric Complexity: Space-Time 
Lovejoy, Shaun [*S. Lovejoy*], Physics, 
McGill University, 3600 University st., 
Montreal, Que., Canada, 1-514-398-6537, 
lovejoy@physics.mcgill.ca; D. Schertzer, 
Université Paris-Est, ENPC/CEREVE, 77455 
Marne-la-Vallee Cedex 2, France, 33-1-
64153633, Daniel.Schertzer@cereve.enpc.fr 
In spite of the unprecedented quantity and 
quality of meteorological data and models, 
there is still no consensus about either the 
atmosphere's or the models' elementary 
statistical properties as functions of scale in 
either time or in space. We propose a new 
synthesis based on a) advances in the last 25 
years in nonlinear dynamics, b) a critical 
reanalysis of empirical aircraft and vertical 
sonde data, c) the systematic scale by scale 
space-time exploitation of high resolution 
remotely sensed data d) the systematic 
reanalysis of the outputs of numerical models 
of the atmosphere including GFS, GEM 
models and the ERA40, and the NOAA 20th 
Century reanalyses) and e) a new turbulent 
model for the emergence of the climate from 
"weather" and climate variability.  
We conclude that Richardson's old idea of 
scale by scale simplicity - today embodied in 
multiplicative  cascades - can accurately 
explain the statistical properties of the 
atmosphere and its models over most of the 
meteorologically significant range of scales, 
and perhaps  some of the climate range. The 
resulting space-time cascade model 
combines these nonlinear developments with 
modern statistical analyses, it is based on 
strongly anisotropic and intermittent 
generalizations of the classical turbulence 
laws of  Kolmogorov, Corrsin, Obukhov, and 
Entropy Production and Self-organised 
(sub) Criticality in Earthquake Dynamics 
Main, Ian Ian Main and Mark Naylor 
(ian.main:@ed.ac.uk,  ark.naylor@ed.ac.uk) 
School of GeoSciences, University of 
We derive an analytical expression for 
entropy production in earthquake populations 
based on Dewar’s formulation, including flux 
(tectonic forcing) and source (earthquake 
population) terms, and apply it to the OlamiFeder-Christensen (OFC) numerical model for 
earthquake dynamics. Assuming the 
commonly-observed power-law rheology 
between driving stress and remote strain 
rate, we test the hypothesis that maximum 
entropy production (MEP) is a 
thermodynamic driver for self-organized 
‘criticality’ (SOC) in the model.  MEP occurs 
when the global elastic strain is near, but 
strictly sub-critical, with small relative 
fluctuations in macroscopic strain energy 
expressed by a low seismic efficiency, and 
broad-bandwidth power-law scaling of 
frequency and rupture area.  These 
phenomena, all as observed in natural 
earthquake populations, are hallmarks of the 
broad conceptual definition of SOC, which to 
date has often in practice included selforganizing systems in a near but strictly subcritical state.  In contrast the precise critical 
point represents a state of minimum entropy 
production in the model.  In the MEP state 
the strain field retains some memory of past 
events, expressed as coherent ‘domains’, 
implying a degree of predictability, albeit 
strongly limited in practice by the proximity 
to criticality and our inability to map the 
stress field at an equivalent resolution to the 
numerical model. 
Seismic Response in an Anisotropic 
Majumder, Mandira [*M Majumder*] 
(Research Scholar, Department of Earth 
Sciences, IIT Roorkee, Ph. 09557107294; email: mandira5ism@gmail.com); V. N. Singh 
(Department of Earth Sciences, IIT Roorkee, 
Ph. 91-1332-285232; e-mail: 
vnsghfes[at]iitr.ernet.in); A. Joshi ( 
Department of Earth Sciences, IIT Roorkee, 
Ph. 091-1332-285887; e-mail: 
Page 33 Earth materials through which seismic waves 
propagate are rarely isotropic.Different 
causes of such anisotropic behaviour 
indicates anisotropy of rock is rule rather 
than exception. For study of anisotropic 
nature of wave propagation media which is 
used for AVO interpretation, an 
approximation of Zoeppritz equations has 
been used. 
Variation of P to P reflection coefficients has 
been studied for VTI and HTI media and also 
AVO analysis for different model has been 
done.It has been found that for small angles 
of incidence (~ 10 to 15 degrees); the 
reflection coefficients do not differ 
significantly from that for the isotropic case. 
However the effect of anisotropy becomes 
fairly appreciable at large angles of 
incidence. The amplitudes of reflection 
coefficients for large angles are governed by 
the contrast in Thomsen parameters. 
B-value and Fractal Dimension Imaging 
of the Epicentral Zone of the 2001 Bhuj 
Earthquake, Gujarat, India 
Mandal, Prantik [“Prantik Mandal”] (National 
Geophysical Research Institute (Council of 
Scientific and Industrial Research), Uppal 
Road, Hyderabad-500606 (India); ph. 0091-
40-23434688; fax. 0091-40-23434651; email: prantik@ngri.res.in); M.V. Rodkin 
(Geophysical Institute, Russian Academy of 
Sciences, Moscow; ph. +7(495) 9300546; 
fax. +7(495) 9300506; email; 
The devastating intraplate earthquake of Mw 
7.7 of 26 January, 2001 took place along the 
south-dipping reverse fault in the lower crust 
(~23 km) of Kachchh, Gujarat, India, 
obliterating some 14,000 people. The 
aftershock activity has been continuing for 
almost last nine years since the occurrence 
of 2001 mainshock. We jointly analyzed 2159 
aftershocks of Mw  ≥3.0 (2001-2008) to 
study the distributions of b-value, 
earthquake density and fractal dimensions in 
space and depth. We found that our dataset 
strictly follows the Gutenberg-Richter law, 
thus, all events of Mw≥3.0 are listed in this 
dataset. Correlations of images show a south 
dipping zone of high b-value, fractal 
dimensions and earthquake density at 5 – 35 
km depth below the aftershock zone 
coinciding well with the inferred causative 
fault zone of the 2001 Bhuj mainshock. We 
can infer that these high b value as well as 
formal fractal dimension anomalies are 
regions of increased heterogeneity, crack 
density, and/or high pore pressure caused by 
the presence aqueous fluids or volatile CO2. 
This interpretation is supported by all the 
available geophysical evidence, such as 
tomographic and geological studies. We also 
examine the dependence of the studied 
parameters with time. 
Seismogenesis of the Lower Crustal 
Intraplate Earthquakes Occurring in the 
Kachchh Seismic Zone, Gujarat, India 
Mandal, Prantik [“P Mandal”] National 
Geophysical Research Institute (Council of 
Scientific and Industrial Research, Uppal 
Road, Hyderabad-500606 (India); ph. 0091-
40-23434688; fax. 0091-40-23434651; email: prantik@ngri.res.in); O.P. Pandey 
(National Geophysical Research Institute 
(Council of Scientific and Industrial 
Research), Uppal Road, Hyderabad-500606 
(India); ph. 0091-40-23434618; fax. 0091-
40-23434651; e-mail: 
Large intraplate continental earthquakes like 
the 1811-12 New Madrid (Mw8.0) and the 
2001 Bhuj (Mw7.7) were highly destructive 
because they occurred in strong crust, but 
the mechanisms underlying their 
seismogenesis is not understood. Here we 
show, using local earthquake velocity 
tomography, and joint inversion of receiver 
functions and surface wave dispersion that 
the crust and uppermost mantle beneath the 
2001 Bhuj earthquake region of western 
India is far more complex than hitherto 
known through previous studies. A new 
image of the crust and underlying mantle 
lithosphere first time delineates the presence 
of a 18-km thick high velocity (Vp: 7.15 - 
8.11 km/s) differentiated crustal and mantle 
magmatic layer above a hot and thin 
lithosphere (only 70 km) in the epicentral 
region of 2001 Bhuj earthquake. This 
magmatic layer begins at the depth of 24 km 
and continues down to 42 km depth. Below 
this region, brittle-ductile transition reaches 
as deep as the Moho (~34 km) due to the 
possible presence of olivine rich mafic 
magma. Our study also demonstrates an 
updoming  of  Moho  (~  4-10  km)  as  well  as 
asthenosphere (~ 6-12 km) below the 
Kachchh rift zone relative to surrounding 
areas. Restructuring of this warm and thin 
lithosphere may have been caused due to 
two-fold rifting and thermal plume interaction 
at around 184 and 65 Ma. It appears that 
such kind of crust-mantle structure control 
the seismogenesis of lower crustal 
earthquakes in the continental rift zones and 
thus has a relevance to the global intraplate 
earthquake activity. 
Page 34 SKS/SKKS Splitting in the Kachchh rift 
Zone, Gujarat, India
Mandal, Prantik [“P Mandal”] National 
Geophysical Research Institute (Council of 
Scientific and Industrial Research), Uppal 
Road, Hyderabad-500606 (India); ph. 0091-
40-23434688; fax. 0091-40-23434651; email: prantik@ngri.res.in) 
410 measurements of SKS/SKKS phase 
splitting were obtained from twelve seismic 
stations in Kachchh, Gujarat.  The estimated 
mean fast directions and splitting times 
range from 70.9o to 117.6o and 1.26 to 
1.92, respectively. The mean fast 
polarization directions are 89.19.2o in the 
south of Kachchh rift, 88.88.5o in the 
western Kachchh mainland unit, 84.312.6o 
on the Wagad uplift, and 88.77.73o in the 
north of Kachchh rift. The simple mean for all 
the stations is (, t) = ((88.11 13.4)o, 
(1.59 0.20) s). The fast directions are 
mostly E-W in the Kachchh rift zone, which 
are parallel to the axis of rift. The main cause 
of this rift axis parallel anisotropy is 
attributed to the pre-existing lattice preferred 
orientations of olivine caused by 
asthenospheric flow and thin melts pockets in 
the partially molten asthenosphere directly 
beneath the Kachchh rift zone, which favors 
a transtensional deformation of the 
lithosphere during rifting episodes. 
A Study on Non-Linear 3-D Wavelet for 
Scale Extraction
Mohan, Nadimpalli Lakshmi [*D. Sujatha*] 
and N.L.Mohan, Centre of Exploration 
Geophysics, Osmania University, Hyderabad-
500007,India, sujatha25239@rediffmail.com, 
The 3-D anti-symmetric band limited wavelet   
(ASW) f(x, y) is defined.  The present work 
deals with the extraction of the scale 
parameters of 3-D anti symmetric band 
limited wavelet (ASW) using the 2-D Mellin 
transform (TMT), a scale invariant 
transformation    in  real        and  complex   
domains.  Further the 2-D Fourier transform 
(FT) of the 3-D anti symmetric band limited 
wavelet (ASW) is derived. Also, the 2-D 
Mellin transform of the Fourier transform (MF)  of  ASW  is  derived.  In  case  of  complex 
domains   the amplitude and phase 
components play a key role for scale 
extraction. Algorithms for the estimation of 
the scale parameters of 3-D anti symmetric 
band limited wavelet (ASW) are developed, 
using the mathematical transformations. 3-D 
anti symmetric wavelet models are simulated 
for different range of scales and subjected to 
the scale extraction procedure and thus 
established the validity of algorithms.  
Further, numerical procedure are tested on 
seismological data sets for extraction of scale 
parameters and proved the robustness of 
algorithms. The nonlinear phenomena of 
waveforms like x-rays, satellite images, data 
compression, computer vision, 3-D 
animation, human finger prints etc are 
potential areas for extraction of scale 
parameters, using the algorithms developed 
in the present study. 
Analysis of Earthquake Data of 
Himalyays - A New Approach 
Mohan, Nadimpalli Lakshmi [*V.V. Hara 
Gopal 1*], D.Vijaya Lakshmi2,                  
N.L.Mohan3, and D.Sri Nagesh4, 
The voluminous earth quake data sets, 
covering entire Northern part of India 
comprised of Himalayan Mountain belt is 
divided in to 3 parts i.e., North 
Western(NW), Central ( C ) and North 
Eastern( NE),  and also the total data 
samples of entire Himalayan belt , constitute 
with Latitude, Longitude, Magnitude(M  ≥ 4) 
and Focal depth(Lt, Ln, M, Fd)  are 
considered for the present study. An attempt 
is made to analyze the relation between the 
4 parameters Lt, Ln, M and Fd using the 
Cluster and Factor analyses. Cluster analysis 
sorts out different objects into homogeneous 
groups in a way the degree of association 
between two objects is maximal if they 
belong to the same group and minimal 
otherwise. In short, cluster analysis identifies 
structures in data without explaining why do 
they exist. Further, to substantiate this study 
the data sets are analyzed, using factor 
analysis technique which attempts to identify 
the underlying factors that explain pattern of 
correlations with a set of observed variables. 
Interestingly, it is determined that the total 
number of clusters is 20 in each zone (NW, 
C, and NE) and also for the entire area, 
respectively. It is observed that the distance 
from the centre point to each cluster (within 
a group of 20 clusters) varies for all the 3 
zones and as well for the entire Himalayas 
for all the parameters Lt, Ln, M and Fd. From 
Factor analysis (for the 4 parameters) it is 
noticed that NE and NW follow the same 
pattern of Commonalities M,Ln,Fd and Lt in 
descending order, whereas the  Central 
Himalayas  and total Himalayas follow the 
Page 35 similar pattern of  commonalities in  Ln,Lt,Fd 
and M .It is evident that from Factor analysis 
the Longitude (Ln) is a Common factor, 
which is dominant, extracted from the data 
sets of Central and Total Himalayas though 
independently. However, the Magnitude 
parameter is the Common factor which is 
dominant, extracted from data sets of 
Western and North Eastern Himalayas 
though independently. The most significant 
inference that is drawn from this analysis is 
that it could be possible only when the stress 
is applied on opposite directions that is, 
North western and North Eastern Parts of 
Himalayan zones  are compressing  against 
each other as a result the distribution could 
take place along the Longitudinal direction. 
Further it also correlates with the crustal 
thicknesses in the Central portion of the 
Himalayas is more compared to the 
neighboring North Eastern and North 
Western blocks. It is like when the stress is 
applied on opposite directions of a clay ball 
that would not only make the clay ball 
elongate in perpendicular directions of forces 
but also the thickness would increase in the 
central portion. 
Can We Resolve NMO and DMO- 
Nonlinear Problems in Exploration 
Mohan, Nadimpalli Lakshmi [*N.L.Mohan*], 
Ramraj Mathur , Centre of Exploration 
Geophysics, Osmania University, and 
N.D.J.Rao Alkor Technologies, Hyderabad, 
India, lakshmi_mohan639@rediffmail.com 
The most primary and unresolved problems 
in exploration seismics are normal move out 
(NMO) and dip move out (DMO) corrections. 
The reason is that the NMO and the DMO are 
nonlinear time functions t(x) and velocity 
estimation is based on trial and error 
approach. Since of NMO and DMO are 
essentially related to ‘scaled time functions’. 
The NMO equation is transformed into the‘s’ 
domain, using the scale invariant 
transformation, called Mellin transform. The 
transformed expression is recasted into 
logarithmic form, a simple linear equation 
which constitutes with velocity and depth. 
The mathematical algorithm is formulated for 
determination of the velocity and depth 
parameters. Further, the Mellin transform of 
the nonlinear time function of DMO is 
derived. Also, the derived transformed 
expression is reformulated into linear form 
and mathematical procedure is formulated 
for determination of parameters- velocity, 
depth and angle of inclination of dipping 
layer. The algorithms are tested on 
numerically simulated models. Also, validity 
of the algorithms is demonstrated on seismic 
data sets.  The algorithms do not require 
assumptions for determination of parameters 
–velocity, depth and angle of inclination of 
dipping layers. The algorithms can also be 
used for fractal analysis, attribute analysis 
and for resolving the anisotropy. The 
algorithm can be adopted, using concepts of 
artificial intelligence and expert system, for 
automatic estimation of parameters. 
Understanding the Severe Magnetic 
Disturbances of October 2003 – 
Challenges for Modelling 
Nagarajan, Nandini [*Nandini Nagarajan*] 
(National Geophysical Research Institute, 
Hyderabad, INDIA 500606, ph91-40-
23434768; fax 91-40-27171564;email: 
The adverse effects of severe space weather 
on modern technology are well known and 
well documented, and risk-mitigation 
procedures and technologies have been 
developed. The physical processes underlying 
space weather are also generally well 
understood, although improvements in our 
ability to model the space environment and 
to forecast severe space weather events are 
The worldwide network of magnetic 
observatories, augmented by satellites, 
monitor magnetic variations in near-real time 
and provide forecasts of possible 
electromagnetic disturbances, that would 
affect critical communications and 
navigation. Models have been developed to 
predict the effects of magnetic storms, in the 
earth’s near-space –ionosphere and 
atmosphere. Less well documented and 
understood, however, are the potential 
economic and societal impacts of the 
disruption of critical technological systems by 
severe space weather.  
Recent magnetic storms in October and 
November 2003 come under this category of 
‘extreme disturbances’. Apart from provided 
insights into the triggering of unusual solar 
phenomena, the accumulated data from 
interplanetary measurements, and a host of 
observations from ground-based 
instruments, of these events, have been 
modelled to understand the effects on the 
earth and its magnetosphere. The large 
amounts of energy transferred into the 
Earth’s near-space, have been the impetus 
for more effective means to protect satellites 
in space and decrease hazards of air travel 
Page 36 and navigation Explanations of related 
phenomena, of ionospheric and atmospheric 
disturbances, were sought using current 
models of magnetic disturbances. However, 
the failure of these ‘mean-state’ models have 
provided valuable pointers for a new 
approach to model these extreme events and 
some progress made in these efforts. 
Extreme Events Recovered in Subsurface 
Images Along the Tamil Nadu Coast 
Nair, Rajesh Rajesh R.Nair1, Ilya 
Buynevich2, Ron J Goble3, P.Srinivasan4, 
S.G.N.Murthy4, Vijaya Lakshmi.C.S1, 
Deshraj Trivedi1 and S.C.Kandpal1, 1 
Department of Geology and Geophysics, IIT 
Kharagpur, India, 2 Woods Hole 
Oceanographic Institute, USA, 3 University of 
Nebraska, USA, 4 Structural Engineering 
Research Centre, Chennai 
The 2004 Indian Ocean Tsunami event 
devastated a number of major coastal 
regions in South Asia, including the Tamil 
Nadu coast of India. In many areas on the 
east coast of India, distinct deposits of 
tsunami sands drape the landscape and 
overlie the muddy deposits of the coastal 
plain (Srinivasalu et al., 2007). The event 
highlighted the need for long-term research 
into extreme events, however to date little is 
known about the geological history of 
tsunamis to provide a meaningful 
assessment of their future impact on the 
coast (Rajendran et al., 2006; Monecke et 
al., 2008). Using erosional, as well as 
depositional features of the 2004 tsunami as 
proxy for past events, we present new 
subsurface evidence of past erosional events 
along the south-east coast of India (Figure 
1). Earlier, limited luminescence dating 
efforts to date paleo-tsunamis (Huntley and 
Clague, 1996) provided stratigraphically 
reasonable ages in the range 260 ± 20 to 
1,200 ± 95 BP for tsunami-sourced 
sediments in Washington state and British 
Columbia. However, truly ‘zero age’ tsunami 
samples have not been analyzed in detail and 
the recent tsunami event provided a unique 
opportunity to examine the extent of zeroing 
and hence the first possibility of establishing 
the ‘zero error’, if any, in the application of 
optically stimulated luminescence (OSL) for 
the dating of paleo-tsunami events. We use 
OSL dates on relict scarps within a prograded 
coastal sequence to reconstruct the 
chronology of earlier tsunamis on the 
Mahabalipuram coast, situated 55 km south 
of Chennai on the east coast of India. The 
coastline of Mahabalipuram comprises long 
open beaches with casuarinas’ plantations. 
The shoreline is oriented N-S with a 
coastward relief. The beaches have wideranging subaerial and subaqueous sand 
volumes (Subrahmanyan and Selvan, 2001). 
The near-shore zone of Mahabalipuram has 
an irregular seabed with rocky outcrops of 
granitic boulders, occasional sand patches, 
and a moderate relief towards the east. OSL 
dates obtained from sediments immediately 
overlying heavy-mineral concentration (HMC) 
anomalies associated with relict erosional 
disconformities (buried scarps) suggest 
probable tsunami events -ca. ~1,000 and 
3,700 years ago. 
The identification of tsunami deposits is the 
first step in tracing past events, yet it is 
often difficult to distinguish tsunami deposits 
from those produced by other high-energy 
event, such as storms (i.e., tempestites). 
The evidence left by a tsunami in the coastal 
stratigraphy can assist in providing direct 
modern analogs for the identification and 
interpretation of paleo-tsunami in the 
geologic record (Srinivasulu et al., 2007). 
Ground-penetrating radar (GPR) imaging has 
proven to be a successful tool for identifying 
and mapping sand-rich costal sequences, by 
providing high-resolution images of the 
extent and geometry of various facies 
boundaries (Meyers et al., 1996; Buynevich 
et al., 2007). The diagnostic signatures of 
erosional events (e.g. HMCs and 
disconformities mapped in trenches) can be 
mapped with GPR and their chronology may 
be established by OSL dating of associated 
Shore-normal geophysical records from 
Mahabalipuram Beach reveal a series of 
steep prominent reflections in the shallow 
subsurface (Figure 2) that can be used as 
diagnostic signatures of past erosional 
episodes. Each reflection coincides with a 
concentration of heavy minerals in sediment 
cores. HMCs typically contain 15-45% heavy 
minerals (the GPR response being primarily 
due to high magnetite content) compared to 
the background concentration of 5-10%. 
Although the storm origin cannot be ruled 
out, the extent and height above sea level, 
as well as geometry of the buried scarp is 
similar to that produced by the 2004 
tsunami. The OSL dating of the two oldest 
sand layers from profiles P1 , approximately 
40 m landward and P2 around 50 m 
landward from the beach (Figure 2) yield 
ages of 1,080 ± 60 (M4) and 3,710 ± 200 
(M5) years ago (before 2009). M4 and M5 
represent the major significant erosional 
events, if analyzed further for other samples 
as well; we can obtain the recurrence 
intervals of these major events with  high 
Page 37 resolution. These findings are the first step 
toward establishing an integrated 
geophysical and OSL database of erosional 
events along the south-east coast of India.  
By  R.  R.  NAIR,  I.  BUYNEVICH,  R.  J.  GOBLE, 
Funding from INCOIS, Ministry of Earth 
Science, India, is acknowledged.   
Buynevich, I.V., D.M. FitzGerald, and R.J. 
Goble (2007), A 1500 yr record of North 
Atlantic storm activity based on optically 
dated relict beach scarps, Geology, 35, 543-
546; doi: 10.1130/G23636A.1. 
Huntley, D.J., and J.J. Clague (1996), Optical 
dating of tsunami-laid sand, Quaternary 
Res., 46, 127-140. 
Meyers, R., D.G. Smith, H.M. Jol, and C.D. 
Peterson (1996), Evidence for eight great 
earthquake-subsidence events detected with 
ground-penetrating radar, Willapa barrier, 
Washington, Geology, 24, 99-102. 
Monecke K., et al. (2008), A 1,000-year 
sediment record of tsunami recurrence in 
northern Sumatra, Nature, 455, 1232-1234. 
Rajendran, C.P., K. Rajendran, T. Machado, 
T. Satyamurthy, P. Aravazhi, and M. Jaiswal 
(2006), Evidence of ancient sea surges at the 
Mamallapuram coast of India and 
implications for previous Indian Ocean 
tsunami events, Current Science, 91, 9, 
Srinivasalu, S., N. Thangadurai, A.D. Switzer, 
V.R. Mohan, and T. Ayyamperumal (2007), 
Erosion and sedimentation in Kalpakkam (N 
Tamil Nadu, India) from the 26th December 
2004 tsunami, Marine Geology, 240, 65-75.  
Subrahmanyan, K. S., Selvan, T. A., 2001. 
Geology of Tamil Nadu and Pondicherry. 
Geological Society of India, Special 
Publication, p. 192. 
Wintle, A.G., and A.S. Murray (2006), A 
review of quartz optically stimulated 
luminescence characteristics and their 
relevance in single-aliquot regeneration 
dating protocols, Radiation Measurements, 
41, 369-391. 
Author Information 
R. R. Nair, Dept. of Geology and Geophysics, 
IIT Kharagpur, India; 
rajeshnair.iitkgp@gmail.com; Ilya Buynevich, 
Woods Hole Oceanographic Institution, USA; 
Ron J. Goble, University of Nebraska-Lincoln, 
USA; P. Srinivasan, SERC, Chennai, India, S. 
G.  N.  Murthy,  SERC,  Chennai,  India,  S.  C. 
Kandpal, IIT Kharagpur; Vijaya lakshmi C. 
S., IIT Kharagpur; D. Trivedi, IIT Kharagpur  
Figure Captions: 
Figure 1. Location of the study area along the 
east coast of India (profile P1 and P2). Insets 
show the location of the study area, the area 
of origin of the 2004 Indian Ocean Tsunami 
(star) and the ground photographs of profiles 
P1 and P2. 
Figure 2. Topographic profiles and subsurface 
data of shore-normal transects P1 and P2 
(location shown in Figure 1). Also shown are 
heavy-mineral concentration (HMC; red 
boxes) and optical dates obtained on sands 
immediately overlying the HMCs (M4&M5). 
Segments of the Geophysical Survey 
Systems Inc. (GSSI) ground-penetrating 
radar profiles highlight prominent reflections 
in the upper part of the coastal plain 
sequence, which are interpreted as erosional 
disconformities. The OSL ages of samples 
associated with anomalies M4 and M5 are 
indicated in years before 2009. MSL- mean 
sea level. 
Figure 1 
Figure 2  
Page 38 Landslide Studies and Mitigation – With 
a Focus on Varunavat Landslide in 
Uttarkashi, Uttarakhand Himalaya, India 
Nawani, P.C. P.C. Nawani, Director, National 
Institute of Rock Mechanics, Kolar Gold Fields 
– 563 117, Karnataka, dto@nirm.in 
Landslides, though occur as localized events, 
are the major natural hazards which affect at 
least 15% of land area in India, covering 
more than 0.49 M Km2.  In the seismically 
sensitive and geodynamically active 
Himalayan region, landslides occur very 
frequently and affect the population severely.  
In Uttarakhand Himalaya, the landslides that 
had catastrophic effect include Varunavat 
Project Landslide (2003) in Uttarkashi, Malpa 
Landslide (1998) along Kailash Mansorover 
Yatra route, Kanaudiagud slide (1978) which 
blocked Bhagrathi river, Gohana Gad 
Landslides (1893) which blocked Birchiganga 
On 23rd September 2003, a huge and 
massive landslide was witnessed on 
Varunavat Parvat in Uttarkashi which 
disastrously affected the life and property of 
the population living at the toe of the hill.  
About 3000 people were affected and about 
5000 lacs worth property was damaged.  
However, fore-warning, given about one 
month back, based on the geologists’ 
observations helped the administration to 
evacuate the local population from high risk 
areas at the toe of the hill, thus preventing  
any loss of life.  Considering the huge 
dimension of the slide and its critical location, 
most effective design solutions based on the 
detailed engineering geological 
investigations/assessment were adopted for 
a long term stabilization of the slopes.  A 
scheme of post treatment monitoring using 
state-of-the-art techniques – 
microseismic/nanoseismic monitoring and 
slope stability radar has also been proposed. 
Earthquake Interevent Time 
Distributions Reflect The Proportion of 
Dependent and Independent Events 
Pairs And Are Therefore Not Universal 
Naylor, Mark Mark Naylor, Sarah Touati, Ian 
G.  Main  and  Andrew  F.  Bell,  School  of 
GeoSciences, University of Edinburgh, 
mark.naylor@ed.ac.uk, phone - ++44 (0)131 
Seismic activity is routinely quantified using 
event rates or their inverse, interevent 
times, which are more stable to extreme 
events [1].  
It is common practice to model regional 
earthquake interevent times using a gamma 
distribution [2]. However, the use of this 
gamma distribution is empirically based, not 
physical. Our recent work has shown that the 
gamma distribution is an approximation that 
drops out of a physically based model after 
the commonly applied filtering of the raw 
data [3]. We show that in general, interevent 
time distributions have a fundamentally 
bimodal shape caused by the mixing of two 
contributions: correlated aftershocks, which 
have short interevent times and produce a 
gamma distribution; and independent 
events, which tend to be separated by longer 
intervals and are described by a Poisson 
distribution. The power-law segment of the 
gamma distribution arises at the cross over 
between these distributions. This physically 
based model is transferable to other fields to 
explain the form of cascading interevent time 
series with varying proportions of 
independent and dependent daughter events. 
The role of correlations in a time series of 
interevent times also affects estimates of the 
mean interevent time [1]. When quantifying 
the uncertainty in the mean interevent time, 
we must take into account that interevent 
times are not independently drawn from this 
distribution; correlations exist between 
successive interevent times due to the 
aftershock activity. The error on the mean 
earthquake interevent time therefore does 
not exhibit simple Gaussian convergence with 
increasing sample size according to the 
central limit theorem.  
We have found that when the independent or 
background rate of earthquakes is high, as is 
the case for earthquake catalogues spanning 
large regions, significant overlapping of 
separate aftershock sequences within the 
time series "masks" the effects of these 
aftershock sequences on the temporal 
statistics. The time series qualitatively 
appears more random; this is confirmed in 
the interevent time distribution, in the 
convergence of the mean interevent time, 
and in the poor performance of temporal 
ETAS parameter inversions on synthetic 
catalogues within this regime [4]. The 
aftershock-triggering characteristics within 
the data are thus hidden from observation in 
the time series by a high independent rate of 
events; spatial information about event 
occurrence is needed in this case to uncover 
the triggering structure in the data. 
We show that earthquake interevent time 
data from the Kilauea volcano can be 
explained by this physical model and 
demonstrate that the form of the interevent 
time distributions separated in space reflect 
Page 39 the diversity of processes across the volcano 
[1] Naylor, M., Main, I.G. & Touati, S. (2009) 
Quantifying uncertainty in mean earthquake 
interevent times for a finite sample, J. 
Geophys. Res, 114, B01316. 
[2] Corral, A. (2004) Long-Term Clustering, 
Scaling, and Universality in the Temporal 
Occurrence of Earthquakes  Phys. Rev. Lett. 
92, 108501  
[3] Touati, S., Naylor, M. & Main, I.G., 
(2009) Origin and nonuniversality of the 
earthquake interevent time distribution, 
Phys. Rev. Lett .102, 168501 
[4] S. Touati, M. Naylor, I.G. Main and M. 
Christie (Submitted) Masking of earthquake 
triggering behaviour by a high spontaneous 
rate and implications for ETAS inversions 
[5] A. Bell, S. Touati, M. Naylor and I. Main, 
(Submitted) The structure of earthquake 
interevent-time distributions at Kilauea 
volcano, Hawaii 
Declining Predictability of Indian 
Summer Monsoon Weather, in the 
Backdrop of Increasing Heavy Rainfall 
Neena, Joseph [*Neena J.M.*] (Indian 
Institute of Tropical Meteorology, Dr Homi 
Bhabha Road, Pune 411008, Ph:  
09423561174 , email: 
neena144@gmail.com); Suhas E (Indian 
Institute of Tropical Meteorology, Dr Homi 
Bhabha Road, Pune 411008, Ph:  
09421053722 , email: suhase@gmail.com); 
B.N. Goswami (Indian Institute of Tropical 
Meteorology, Dr Homi Bhabha Road, Pune 
411008, Ph: +91020 25893924 , email: 
goswami@tropmet.res.in ). 
Weather in tropics, controlled by fast growing 
convective instabilities is, intrinsically less 
predictable than that in extra-tropics. 
Increased frequency and  intensity of 
extreme rain events in the tropics in the 
backdrop of global warming has a potential 
for further decreasing the potential 
predictability of the tropical weather. Using 
nonlinear dynamical techniques involving 
estimation of Lyapunov spectrum of gridded 
daily rainfall data over India for 104 years 
(1901-2004), here we show that the 
deterministic predictability limit of monsoon 
weather over central India in the latest 
quarter of the period has indeed decreased 
significantly compared to that in the earlier 
three quarters. The increased moisture in the 
atmosphere as a result of increasing global 
temperature makes the tropical atmosphere 
increasingly more unstable, as evidenced by 
the increasing trend in the convective 
available potential energy. This provides the 
favorable environment for the high frequency 
events, whose increase in occurrence would 
lead to faster growth of errors in the synoptic 
scales, lowering the predictability of the 
monsoon weather. The decrease of initial 
error doubling time from approximately 3.0 
days to 1.5 days is consistent with increased 
frequency of extreme events and increased 
potential instability of the atmosphere in the 
recent quarter. 
Quality Assessment, Reserve Estimation 
& Economic Analysis of Roofing Slate in 
the West Central Lesser Himalaya-Nepal 
Neupane, Naba Raj [*N R Neupane*]( 
Tribhuvan University, Department of 
Environmental Science, Amrit Campus, 
Thamel, Kathmandu, Nepal, ph. 977-1-691-
1780, email: nneupane@gmail.com); L P 
Paudel (Central Department of Geology, 
Tribhuvan University, Kathmandu, Nepal, ph. 
977-1-433-2449, email: 
Quality Assessment, Reserve Estimation and 
Economic Analysis of Roofing Slate can be 
carried out at Tharpu of Tanahun District, 
which lies in the Nawakot complex of the 
Lesser Himalaya-Nepal. It represents a part 
of northern limb of the Mahabharat 
Synclonorium.  Petrological study (Presser 
and Temperature of Metamorphism, and 
Thing Section) and Physio-chemical Test 
(Flexure Testing, Water absorption, 
Wethering Resistance, Abration Resistance, 
Sulphuric Acid Immersion Test, Wetting and 
Drying Test) have been done in the 
laboratory for quality assessment. Geological 
mapping and preparation of columnar 
sections have been done in the field for 
Reserve Calculation. The total reserve of an 
area is determined by dividing the tonnage 
with its tonnage factor. The volume is 
calculated by multiplying the total crosssection area by the perpendicular distance 
between each cross-section. Cost Benefit 
Analysis was applied for cost and benefit of 
slate mining to evaluate the viability of the 
slate business as well as environmental 
problem created due to the extraction of 
The major slate deposits of the study are 
belonging to the Benighat Slate and Nourpul 
Formation of the Lesser Himalaya. The 
Page 40 pressure and temperature of the 
metamorphism on the basis of b0-spacing 
and IC methods are 4.23 kbar and 380 C 
for Benighat Slate and 5.10 kbar and 375 C 
for Nourpul Formation roofing slate. Flexure 
strength of the slate along grain ranges from 
26. 26 to 50.57 MPa with average 36.24 MPa 
and standard deviation (SD) of 9.28 MPa. 
While, the same property across grain ranges 
from 36.37 to 59.78 MPa with average value 
43.1 MPa and SD of 9.59 MPa. Similalry, the 
elasticity of the tested sample of slate ranges 
from 1055.4 to 2974 MPa having mean value 
of 1774 MPa and SD of 740 MPa. Water 
absorption by weight is 0.789 to 1.473 
having mean value 1.02 and SD 0.3. While, 
the weather resistance of the slate lies within 
0.31 mm to 0.55 mm with average value of 
0.41 mm and SD is 0.1. Abrasion by weight 
has a range from 14.3 to 20.4 with average 
value 16.22 and SD 2.73. The permeability, 
sulphuric acid immersion, and wetting and 
drying tests give excellent results to the 
It was observed that from the field study, 
there is fine-grained with a fairly perfect 
natural cleavage, readily splitable into thin 
and smooth sheets of slate at Seratar (3000 
m northwest from Tharpu Bazaar) and Otandi 
(1000 m west from Tharpu Bazaar). Due to 
this thin splitting properties, most slate are 
used for roofing purposes. On the basis of 
physio-chemical testing and Petrological 
study, the slate of Nourpul Formation at 
Seratar and Benighat slate at Otandi are best 
for roofing as well as construction purpose 
even though inferior to the ASTM standard. 
The total probable reserve of the slate 
calculated by the cross-sectional method is 
to  be  52.9  million  m3  at  Otandi.  Mining 
method appropriate for the slate deposit is 
open pit mining. As cost benefit analysis (B/C 
ratio = 1.23), the mining of slate is good 
profitable. For profitable business, the 
benefits and cost ratio should always be 
greater than one. However, the slurry of 
quarry materials is affecting downward 
forest, water bodies and agriculture land with 
environmental degradation. 
Analysis and Prediction of Extreme day 
Mean Values of Total Ozone Amount 
Interannual Changes Over Europe in the 
Period From 1979 to 2006 yrs. 
Nikiforova, Maria [*Maria Nikiforova*] 
(Sevastopol National Technical University, 
Sevastopol, Ukraine, ph.: +38-050-926-68-
02, maha.ukraine@gmail.com); Aleksandr 
Kholoptsev (Sevastopol National Technical 
University, Sevastopol, Ukraine, ph.: +38-
Dynamics of total ozone amount (TOA) over 
different planet’s regions is one of the most 
significant factors of biologically active UV 
radiation flux changes, which can affect on 
their ecosystems and on the formation of 
troposphere ozone in them. Hence now TOA 
monitoring over the entire planet’s territory 
is being provided with the use of artificial 
Earth satellites and numerous ground based 
Near earth surface the most essential 
influence on the ecological conditions make 
extreme (maximum and minimum) day mean 
TOA values changes. It is deter-mined, that 
statistical features of these atmosphere 
characteristics’ changes allow to look on their 
dynamics as unsteady and multifactor 
process. This decreases its simulation validity 
while using traditional methods and allows to 
infer the possibil-ity of using a method, 
which accounts the indicated features. The 
method men-tioned above showed its 
efficiency in the tasks of the monthly mean 
TOA values dynamics’ simulation. 
Nevertheless, earlier, the possibility of using 
it for the ex-treme day mean TOA values 
changes’ analysis and prediction have not 
been viewed. As the result, now the 
regularities of extreme TOA values 
interannual changes over different planet’s 
regions are not clearly understood. Also the 
meth-ods of its prediction are not enough 
perfect. Thus, the development of the 
analysis and prediction method of mentioned 
processes is one of the topical problems of 
ecology and atmosphere physics. 
Solving of this problem for the heavily 
populated areas is in the main interest. One 
of such areas is Europe. The purpose of this 
work is the analysis of regularities of extreme 
day mean TOA values spatial-temporal 
changes over Europe, which are seen in 
different months and also to study the 
possibility of its prediction using the method 
shown in .  
With this aim in mind day mean TOA values 
time series over different Europe re-gions in 
the period from 1 January 1979 yr. to 31 
December 2006 yr. have been analyzed. To 
retrieve such time series graphic data was 
used, which is presented on the internet site 
of World ozone and ultraviolet data centre 
(WOUDC – http://www.woudc.org). This 
graphic material was converted with the use 
of a pro-gram to the digital data, 
corresponding to different squares of studied 
territory in size 1x1 angular degrees. 
Page 41 Adequacy of the information attained with 
the method described above was estimated 
with the use of ground based measurements 
data from the stations Provance (France), 
Aroza (Switzerland), Hradek Kralove (Czech 
Republic), Belsk (Poland), Kairo (Egypt) and 
Oxford (United Lingdom). 
For every year and every month maximum 
and minimum day mean TOA values within 
every square were defined. 
A comparison of energy spectrums of 
extreme day mean TOA values time series 
different segments, that were attained with 
the method mentioned above, has showed 
that its dynamics can be described with the 
next mathematical model: 
 , (1) where   – linear trend of a studied 
  – steady, Gauss noise of measurements, 
which has a zero mean value; 
  – correlative, unsteady part, which has a 
zero mean value. 
For the model parameters identification a 
numerical procedure, which is based on the 
random choice method, was used. The 
spatial distributions over the Europe territory of linear trends slope ratios of extreme 
day mean TOA values and also simu-lation 
errors dispersion were studied. The spectral 
composition of characteristics dynamics 
mentioned above was analyzed. The 
possibilities of its prediction using the errors 
dispersion assessments, which were deduced 
with the regard to the stud-ied processes 
prehistory in the mentioned stations of the 
ground based observa-tions, were estimated. 
The developed method can be used for 
simulation and pre-diction of extreme day 
mean TOA values interannual changes over 
other planet’s regions and also any other 
extreme parameters, which can be described 
by time se-ries with the similar statistical 
features as for the TOA values ones. 
Artificial Neural Networks (ANN) Based 
Modeling for Landslides Susceptibility 
Zonation in Parts of Himalayas 
Nwankwo, Levi L. I. Nwankwo 1 and P. K. 
Champati Ray 2, 1 Department of Physics, 
University of Ilorin, Ilorin 240003, Nigeria, 2 
Geosciences Division, Indian Institute of 
Remote Sensing, Dehradun 248001, India, 
levinwankwo@yahoo.com, +91 80 570 65 
Landslides are major natural geological 
hazards and each year these are responsible 
for enormous loss of human lives and 
property in Himalayan region spreading over 
Pakistan, India, Nepal, and Bhutan. Recent 
studies have revealed that landslides occur 
due to complex interaction of several 
geoenvironmental parameters such as 
lithology, geological structures (faults, 
lineaments), geomorphology, slope gradient, 
slope aspect, soil texture, soil type, drainage, 
land use and anthropogenic factors. Attempts 
have been made to integrate such factors 
based on either statistical or heuristic 
approach and produce landslide hazard 
zonation maps showing relative susceptibility 
of a given area to landslide hazards. 
However, such methods have several 
limitations and therefore, an attempt is made 
to integrate layers by training the data set 
using artificial neural network (ANN) to arrive 
at more reliable results. The methodology 
was developed on a small area in Bhagirathi 
basin and is being tested with databases 
from two different areas. Causative 
parameters and landslide maps were derived 
from interpretation of satellite images, 
topographic maps, field survey and other 
maps. These parameters were taken into 
consideration while using the backpropagation of neural network method. The 
weights obtained from the trained network 
were consequently utilized for map 
integration and classification. The resulting 
landslide susceptibility zonation map 
delineates the area into five classes: Very 
High, High, Moderately High, Low and Very 
Low. These classes were validated by 
correlating the results with actual landslide 
occurrences. The early results are very 
encouraging and attempts are being made to 
further improve the training and classification 
Fractal Clustering of Reservoir Induced 
Seismicity in the Koyna-Warna Reservoir 
Padhy, Simanchal [*S Padhy*] 
(Seismological Observatory, National 
Geophysical Research Institute, Hyderabad – 
500007; Ph. +91-040-23434664; fax +91-
040-27171564; email: spadhy@ngri.res.in); 
V P Dimri (Fractals Group, National 
Geophysical Research Institute, Hyderabad – 
500007; Ph. +91-040-23434600; fax +91-
040-27171564; email: director@ngri.res.in) 
The Koyna-Warna region has been prone to 
reservoir-triggered seismic activity, where 18 
earthquakes of magnitude  ≥ 5, and several 
hundred thousand smaller earthquakes have 
occurred over the past 40 years, is an ideal 
site for monitoring earthquake precursors. 
Here, we study the present day activity, from 
August 2005 to June 2009, characterized by 
Page 42 the cluster of events occurred around the 
Koyna-Warna seismic zone in terms of 
seismic b-value and the fractal dimension D 
of the earthquake epicenters both in space 
and time. We estimated the spatial fractal 
dimension over six blocks of dimension 
0.1º×0.1º. The results imply that scaleinvariant fractal clustering occurs in both 
space and time with temporal fractal 
dimension Dt (0 < Dt < 1) and spatial 
dimension Dr (1 < Dr < 2). The areas 
exhibiting low b and relatively high Dr are 
consistent with low magnitude, clustered 
earthquakes in space. Over the time period 
we discuss the correlation between b and D 
values statistically significant at 1σ level in 
terms of present day seismic activity, where 
the seismicity rate starts deviating from the 
mean rate of background seismicity (number 
of events/day). We discuss the changes in b 
and D values in relation to stress loading and 
unloading of the reservoir. Possible 
seismogenic interpretations of the results will 
be presented. 
Thermal Upwellings, Magmatic Extrusion 
and Intra-plate Rift Valley Earthquakes 
in India 
Pandey, Om Prakash [*O.P. 
Pandey*](National Geophysical Research 
Institute, Council of Scientific & Industrial 
Research, Uppal Road, Hyderabad – 500 007, 
India; ph. +91-40-23434618; fax +91-40-
23434651; e-mail: 
Geodynamically, the Indian shield with 
dynamic past and active history of rifting, 
multiple plume interaction and continental 
breakup episodes differs considerably from 
other stable areas of the world. It is made up 
of several ancient cratonic blocks which are 
separated by prominent rift valleys and mega 
suture zones. Many of these rift valleys have 
been frequented by number of destructive 
earthquakes since historical times which 
caused heavy loss of human life and 
property. These include 1819 Kutch, 1927 
Son Valley (Mw 6.4), 1938 Satpura (Mw 6.3), 
1956 Anjar (Mw 6.0), 1967 Koyna (Mw 6.3), 
1969 Bhardachalam (Mw 5.7), 1970 Broach 
(Mw 5.4), 1997 Jabalpur (Mw 5.8) and 2001 
Bhuj (Mw 7.7) earthquake. In spite of several 
geoscientific investigations by various 
agencies, siemotectonics of these rifted 
regions are still being debated.  
Our multiparametric study of such regions 
indicate massive restructuring of the crust 
and underlying subcrustal mantle lithosphere 
due to episodic thermal upwellings which 
resulted into (i) large scale removal of the 
granitic-gnessic crust from the surface due to 
sustained uplift and erosion, (ii) high input of 
heat flow from the mantle, sometimes 
exceeding 40 mW/m2, (iii) thin and warm 
lithosphere and (iv) thick high velocity and 
high density magmatic underplating across 
the crust mantle boundary. These 
characteristics have made the underlying 
crust below the rift zones extremely weak 
and vulnerable to multiple tectonic 
reactivations, thereby causing seismic 
Radon Transform and Its Application In 
Partha Pratim, Mandal Partha Pratim Mandal, 
Dept. of Applied Geophysics, Indian School of 
Mines, Dhanbad 
Radon transform is able to transform two 
dimensional images with lines into a domain 
of possible line parameters, where each line 
in the image will give a peak positioned at 
the corresponding line parameters. This have 
lead to many line detection applications 
within image processing, computer vision, 
and seismic. The very strong property of the 
Radon transform is the ability to extract lines 
(curves in general) from very noise images.  
In seismic it is used for signal enhancement 
and removal of multiples. Both the forward 
and inverse transform have contribution in 
seismic survey. In the conventional Radon 
transform, integration surfaces are 
hyperbolic rather than linear. This specific 
hyperbolic surface is equivalent to a parabola 
in terms of computational expense, but more 
accurately distinguishes multiples from 
primary reflections. Multiples can be 
suppressed by an inverse transform of the 
data, where the forward transform separates 
seismic arrivals by their differences in travel 
time move out. Parabolic Radon transform is 
one of the most effective methods to 
eliminate multiple. Based on the parabolic 
Radon transform, a new method is utilized 
for missing offset restoration, resampling and 
regularization of pre-stack individual 
common depth point (CDP) gathers. The 
method is also valid for resampling spatially 
aliased seismic data. An application of radon 
transform is discussed which shows how the 
multiples are attenuated and improve signal 
Page 43 Analysis and Prediction of Rainfall Data: 
Fractal Approach 
Pathak, Arundhati Arundhati Pathak 
(WesternGeco, BSEL Technology Park, Sector 
30A, Vashi, Navi-Mumbai, India – 400 705, 
ph.91-22-3911 4261, fax 91-22-3911 4280, 
e-mail: pathak.arundhati@gmail.com); 
[*Ravi P. Srivastava*] (National Geophysical 
Research Institute (CSIR), Uppal Road, 
Hyderabad, India – 500 606, ph.91-
4023434767, Fax 91-40-23434651, e-mail: 
We  have  analyzed  rain  fall  behavior  of  India 
for all the seasons. The four seasons are 
considered as summer (March, April, and 
May), monsoon (June, July, August, 
September) and winter (November, 
December, January). Further, to study the 
rainfall time series data, we divided study 
areas into six regions like North East (NE), 
North West (NW), North Central (NC), West 
Peninsula (WP), and East Peninsula (EP) and 
Southern Peninsula (SP). Due to very little 
rain fall in NW, it often suffers from drought. 
On the contrary due to heavy rain fall in NE 
and EP, these regions experience flood. Thus, 
our main aim of the paper is to predict the 
possibilities of extreme drought and flood 
which will be very much useful information 
for agriculture. This prediction is also helpful 
to reduce hazard. Statistical analysis (power 
spectrum, variogram and Hurst coefficient) of 
Indian rainfall data depicts typical 
characteristic of power law behaviour. Our 
approach for possible prediction of rainfall in 
extreme conditions of NW and NE India uses 
combination of fractal and Autoregressive 
Moving Average (ARMA) methods. From 
fractal theory we estimate Hurst coefficient 
and scaling exponent from the available 
rainfall data which tells about the persistence 
of the time series. Further, using fractional 
differencing technique based on ARMA we 
simulate rainfall data in order to predict the 
flood or drought situations. We have used 
monthly averaged data for our analysis. Our 
technique clearly demarcates the possible 
flood/draught period in predicted sequence. 
However,  a  more  high  resolution  data  can 
provide better estimates. 
Wavelet Analysis of Marine Oxygen 
Isotope δ18O Record 
Prakash, M Ravi [*M Ravi Prakash*] 
(National Geophysical Research Institute 
(Council of Scientific and Industrial 
Research), Uppal Road, Hyderabad, India – 
500 606; ph. 91-4023434700; fax 91-40-
23434651; e-mail: mr_prakash@ngri.res.in); 
Nimisha Vedanti (National Geophysical 
Research Institute (Council of Scientific and 
Industrial Research), Uppal Road, 
Hyderabad, India – 500 606; ph. 91-
4023434767; fax 91-40-23434651; e-mail: 
nimisha@ngri.res.in); V P Dimri (National 
Geophysical Research Institute (Council of 
Scientific and Industrial Research), Uppal 
Road, Hyderabad, India – 500 606; ph. 91-
4023434600; fax 91-40-23434651; e-mail: 
There has been a growing recognition of the 
importance of global climatic changes to the 
future well being of humanity, in particular to 
the mechanism of climate. In the present 
study an attempt has been made to study 
the climatic dynamics through wavelet 
analysis of  δ18O record from five deep-sea 
cores (V22-174, V28-238, V30-40, RC11-
120, DSDP 502). From the Auto-Correlation 
and Wavelet Spectrum analysis of denoised 
signal, it is observed that the variations in 
δ18O record are strongly correlated over the 
past 780,000 years. The first zero crossing of 
autocorrelation, which corresponds to the 
Milankovitch precession period is between 
23-24ka. A lower fractal dimension (1.51 ± 
0.02) for short time scales ranging from~3-
20ka and significantly higher dimension 
(1.74 ± 0.05) for longer time scales between 
~20-65ka, is obtained from spectrum 
analysis.  On carrying out wavelet variance 
analysis, it is observed that the fractal 
dimensions are repeated for different scales 
around 1.29 and 1.79. The advantage of 
analyzing a signal with wavelets is its ability 
to study features of the signal locally with a 
detail match to their scale, i.e., broad 
features on a large scale and fine features on 
small scales. This property is especially 
useful for signals that are either nonstationary, or have short lived transient 
components, or have features at different 
scales, all these features are present in δ18O 
record, hence most suitable for its analysis. 
Inundation Modeling at Different 
Locations Along the West Coast of India 
Due to Tsunamigenic Earthquakes From 
the Makran Subduction Zone 
R. Krishna, Kumar Kirti Srivastava (Council of 
Scientific and Industrial Research, National 
Geophysical Research Institute, Hyderabad, 
India; Ph. +91-40-23434793; e-mail: 
kirti@ngri.res.in); [*R. Krishna Kumar *] 
(Council of Scientific and Industrial Research 
, National Geophysical Research Institute, 
Hyderabad, India; Ph. +91-40-23434793; email: armykrishna@gmail.com); and V. P. 
Dimri (Council of Scientific and Industrial 
Page 44 Research, National Geophysical Research 
Institute, Hyderabad, India; Ph. +91-40-
23434600; Fax: +91-40-23434651; e-mail: 
The Makran subduction zone is seismically 
active and the notable earthquake from this 
region is the great earthquake of magnitude 
Mw 8.1 which occurred on 27th November 
1945. This subduction zone is one of the 
world’s largest forearc regions and the age of 
the deformation front is around 70-100 Ma. 
The region is divided into two segments by 
Sistan Suture Zone based on morphotectonic features, contrasting seismicity 
patterns and the varying rupture histories. 
The eastern segment is experiencing small to 
moderate sized thrust earthquakes and in 
past experienced a large thrust earthquake 
whilst the western segment has no 
established historical records of any large 
earthquake. One of the major differences 
between the two segments is the absence of 
coastal earthquakes in the Western Makran. 
This subduction zone which is 1000 km in 
length is a consequence of shallow 
subduction of northward moving Oman 
oceanic lithosphere beneath the Iranian 
micro plate and the active orogenesis has 
resulted in densely faulted coastal mountain 
ridges along the coastal region. The 1945 
earthquake occurred in the eastern segment 
and was felt in several parts of Baluchistan, 
Pakistan and northern India and had 
generated a large destructive tsunami. The 
seismicity analysis for the region has been 
carried out using Fractal Dimension. The 
Fractal Dimension in this region is seen to 
vary from 1.8 to 2.4. 
A possibly large tsunamigenic earthquake  
from the region is modeled to quantify the 
tsunami propagation, the arrival times and 
run ups at different locations along the west 
coast of India. The state of Gujarat being 
close to the Subduction zone has to be 
closely monitored and detailed inundation 
modeling has been carried for several coastal 
location like Dwarka, Porbandar, Somnath, 
Nagoa Beach, Gulf of Khambhat. The run up 
heights are seen to range from 3 to 4 m.  
Inundated distances have been obtained only 
at few locations. The varying nature of the 
width of the shelf in this region is responsible 
for the variation in the arrival times of the 
tsunami along the Gujarat coast. Also as the 
shelf is wide in this region the inundated 
distance is not very significant. 
Hydrological Complexity Model of Active 
Upper Crust Under Koyna (India) Region 
Ramana, D.V. D.V.Ramana1; Asha Chelani2; 
R.K. Chadha1; and [*R.N.Singh*]1 1National 
Geophysical Research Institute, (Council of 
Scientific and Industrial Research), 
.com ;Fax:+91-040-27171564, Tel:040-
ell), 2National Environmental Engineering 
Research Institute, (Council of Scientific and 
Industrial Research), Nagpur 
Crust under Koyna region is exhibiting 
continuous seismicity since last four decades. 
This crustal section is highly fractured and is 
being fed by rivers and reservoirs and is also 
subjected to fluctuating plate boundary 
forces and   significant gravity induced 
stresses due to crustal inhomogeneities. The 
ongoing seismicity thus requires 
understanding coupled hydrological and 
tectonic processes in the region.  Water table 
fluctuations are one reflection the ongoing 
hydro-tectonics of the region.   We have 
performed nonlinear dynamical analysis of 
these observations at several locations and 
show that these time series appear to be 
generated by a low dimensional attractor.   
Changes in the dimension of this attractor 
with  time  have  also  been  investigated.    Now 
there is good understanding of turbulence 
phenomena in fluids and solids and changes 
in the fractal dimensions are seen in the way 
the line, surfaces and volume elements of 
the turbulent media evolve.  Implications of 
these results towards predictability of seismic 
phenomena in this region will be discussed. 
High Intensity Rainfall Event on 
Subsurface Water Regime: A Case Study 
in Granite Watershed, Andhra Pradesh, 
Rangarajan, R. [*R. Rangarajan*] (National 
Geophysical Research Institute, Hyderabad, 
500 007; ph. 91 40-23434763; fax: 91 40-
27171564; email: rrangarajan@ngri.res.in); 
D. Muralidharan (National Geophysical 
Research Institute, Hyderabad, 500 007; ph. 
91 40-23434698; fax: 91 40-27171564; 
email: muralidharan@ngri.res.in) 
Soil moisture, the primary control on 
vegetation and eco systems; groundwater 
recharge, replenishing groundwater reserves 
and surface runoff feeding streams & rivers 
are potentially very sensitive to changes in 
climate in Semi Arid Tropical (SAT) regions. 
Local flooding is often triggered by short 
Page 45 duration high intensity rainfall events. This 
paper evaluates the impact of a one day high 
intensity and high quantum daily rainfall 
event on moisture flux transfer in the vadoze 
zone of a semi arid granite watershed and 
the resultant improvement of groundwater 
availability and its quality. 
A high intensity and high quantum daily 
rainfall event was recorded during 2005 
monsoon season in Wailapalle granite 
watershed (115 km2) in Nalgonda district of 
Andhra Pradesh, India. The watershed 
covered by red sandy loam to loamy sand 
soils experiences an average annual rainfall 
of 600 mm. On a single day in the month of 
October 25, 2005, the rainfall recorded at 7 
rain gauge stations in the watershed area 
varied in range from 157 – 313 mm, with the 
mean value of 225 mm and the coefficient of 
variation of about 45 %. This average single 
day rainfall amount in the watershed 
constitutes about 40 % of average seasonal 
rainfall. The rainfall intensity recorded from 
the automatic rain gauge station in the 
watershed area is about 23 mm/hr with a 
rainfall period of more than six hours. The   
moisture flux transfer below the root zone 
evaluated through tritium tracer studies at 
different sites due to rainfall  is in the range 
from 86 to 175 mm with the average value 
of 138 mm,  which far exceeds the average 
total moisture flux transfer in this watershed 
during normal rainfall years. Repeated depth 
moisture measurements through neutron 
moisture probe also indicate increase in 
moisture flux and deeper migration of 
infiltrated moisture front in the vadoze zone. 
Groundwater level monitoring revealed 
significant water level rise in bore wells even 
over deep water table condition areas with 
the maximum water level change of about 16 
The impact of these types of typical high 
intensity and high quantum rainfall events on 
changes in vadoze zone and groundwater 
conditions in the areas of dry semi arid 
tropical regions can be used as an indicator 
of impact assessment on climate change. 
Doughnut Precursory Seismicity 
Patterns in the Indian Shield 
Earthquakes: An Observation 
Rao, Buddah Ramalingeswara [* B Rao *] 
(PABX: +91-40-23434761, Email: 
brrao_buddha@yahoo.com, National 
Geophysical Research Institute, Hyderabad, 
India; Council of Scientific and Industrial 
During the past six to seven decades before 
the onset of the Cratonic Killari earthquake of 
30 September 1993; deep crustal 
(geofractured rift zone) Jabalpur earthquake 
of 21 May 1997 and Continental rift margin 
Bhuj earthquake of 26 January 2001, the 
doughnut precursory seismicities have been 
observed. Recently, Desamangalam, Trishur- 
Palghat region, Kerala has also been 
exhibiting the precursory doughnut seismicity 
in the region, which may infer the impending 
moderate earthquake in future.  The 
occurrences of micro to moderate 
earthquakes may be the signatures of 
reactivation of old faults. According to Mogi 
(1979), the doughnut precursory seismicity 
may be observed mostly in continental rifts 
and subduction zones. 
The analyses of stress conditions visa-a-vis 
the Coloumb-Navier criterion of failure 
indicates the necessity of the reduction of 
normal stress. This reduction of normal 
stress due to pore–fluid pressures, 
differential erosion or a combination of both 
(and thereby the uplift of the crustal blocks 
in the area) could be the possible cause of 
the occurrences of the above earthquakes in 
the peninsular shield. The estimated porefluid pressures of about 67MPa at the depth 
of 6.5km, 880MPa at the focal depth of 35km 
and 559MPa at the depth of 23km for Killari, 
Jabalpur and Bhuj earthquakes respectively. 
The causative factors for the occurrences of 
these major earthquakes might be 
predominantly due to pore fluid pressures. 
Pore fluid pressure developed during the 
earthquake process, has been estimated by 
using Mohr’s diagram. It is found to be very 
high in the above case studies, which might 
be generated by the dehydration of 
serpentinites in the lower crust and has 
diffused isotropically vertically upwards 
through the fault zones. Thus, the physical 
significance of the doughnut seismicity 
pattern can be identified with the presence of 
the strongest material that accommodates 
the high strain accumulation in the region. 
The High Himalayan Orogeny Time: 
Upper – Early Oligocene? 
Rao, D. Gopala [*D. Gopala Rao*] (Geology 
Department, Osmania University, 
Hyderabad-500007, India. Ph.91-40-
23416566; fax.91-40-
Collision between India and Eurasia during 
Eocene has resulted in closure of Tethys Sea, 
but time for high rises of Himalayas 
especially the Tibetan Plateau is being 
Page 46 speculated. Imprints of kinematics and 
geologic structure, seismic sequence 
stratigraphy of sediments of the western 
continental margin of India (WCMI), Bay of 
Bengal (BOB), Central Indian Ocean 
Basin(CIOB), Seafloor spreading in the 
Eastern Arabian Sea (EAS) and  published 
results of the Tibetan Plateau have been 
reviewed  to constrain on time of the 
Himalayan mountains/plateaus reaching high 
levels. The crustal deformation of the CIOB 
has been noted to occur prior to 15 Ma and 
intimately connected to the geodynamics of 
the high Himalayan mountain ranges, 
outward push (potential energy) of the 
mountains. The Tibetan plateau had reached 
present elevations, 1000 - 2500 m prior to 
15 Ma and perhaps 25-30 Ma ago as 
suggested from Stable isotope Paleoaltimetry and fossil leaf assemblages studies 
of the plateau regions. Morphological 
similarities of flat surfaces of the plateaus of 
western Himalayas and the southwest 
Tibetan Plateau areas have been considered 
for their coeval origin. Second episode of 
seafloor spreading in the EAS began since 30 
Ma (magnetic chron 20/21time) after pause 
for about 15 Ma.  The plateau formation and  
recurrence of spreading times mark close 
kinematics as plate end geodynamics, the 
obduction process and crust generation at 
the diverging plate boundary in the eastern 
Arabian Sea are in separable and closely 
linked  as  proposed  in  case  of  the  CIOB.  The 
mid-crustal fluid flows noted from resistivity 
and seismic reflection images beneath the 
plateau region shall evidence convection 
destabilizing it. Increased sedimentation 
(Progradation/ aggradation) during 
Oligocene/middle Miocene to Recent of the 
WCMI marks rapid denudation from high 
plateaus of the east. The Oligocene turnbidite 
sediment sequence of the northern Bay of 
Bengal and eastern Arabian Sea (~15 
degrees north) and pre-rift sedimentary 
units, clastics and carbonates carpeting the 
Eastern Continental Margin of India basins by 
the same period mark massive fluid flow of 
sediments from the north resulting in 
turbidites sequences and Leeve- Channel 
complexes, cut and fill type and over bank 
build-up thick fan sedimentation. Therefore 
denudation and transport processes must be 
much earlier to the sediments deposition. 
Plus negligible subsidence during upper late 
Eocene and early Miocene i.e. 40 Ma to 22 
Ma of Dahanu Depression of Bombay coast in 
the north and Vijayadurg Depression of 
Ratnagiri coast in the south of the WCMI is 
an event noting quiescence in tectonics 
followed by supply of sediments in large 
quantities from north /the high plateau areas 
into the seas resulting in the thick Neogene 
sediments sequences. The significant 
0nshore/offshore geodynamics and imprints 
of geologic structure have lead to suggest 
the orogeny resulting in formation of the high 
plateaus of the Himalayas prior to late 
Oligocene. The timing had implications in 
considering onset of Indian/Asian monsoon 
pattern and offshore mass fluid flow of 
Possibility of Slow Viscoelastic Process 
or Change in Rheology in Late and Longdistance Triggering of Shocks in Gujarat, 
Western India After the 2001 Mw 7.7 
Bhuj Earthquake 
Rastogi, Bal [*B.K. Rastogi*] Institute of 
Seismological Research, Gandhinagar- 382 
009, India <brastogi@yahoo.com> 
The Gujarat region in western India is 
seismically one of the most active intraplate 
regions. It was known to have low seismicity 
but high hazard region in view of the 
occurrence of several large earthquakes but 
fewer moderate or smaller shocks. The 
scenario is changed during the first decade of 
the 21st Century when 30 felt shocks (of M4 
or so) occurred at 20 different locations. In 
contrast the twenty decades earlier to this 
decade experienced hardly one or two felt 
shocks with the exception of the decade of 
1930’s when 5 earthquakes of M4-5 were felt 
at Paliyad in Saurashtra. The Gujarat region 
has EW trending major faults of the failed 
Mesozoic rifts of Kachchh and Narmada which 
are getting reactivated by thrusting. There 
are some smaller transverse strike-slip 
faults. South of Kachchh, in the Deccan 
Volcanics of Saurshtra, the NW and NE 
trending smaller strike-slip faults are 
activated in the form of moderate 
earthquakes in response to the platetectonics stress. 
Aftershocks in the 2001 Mw 7.7 rupture zone 
in Kachchh are continued at M5.7 level until 
2006 and M≤5 level subsequently. For two 
years the activity concentrated along the 
2001 rupture zone in 80kmx50km area. The 
epicentral area expanded to nearby areas 
along different faults in EW direction (more 
towards E). By 2004 and July 2006 the 
epicentral area expanded to 100kmx75km 
and 125kmx75km. By 2008 the area further 
expanded to 200kmx80km covering South 
Wagad and Banni faults.  Additionally the 
epicentral area expanded by 60 km towards 
NE to Gedi fault and transverse fault across it 
by March 2006. The EW expansion was as 
predicted from Coulomb stress change due to 
Page 47 2001 earthquake but not in other directions. 
Moreover, the activity along the Allah Bund 
and Island Belt faults has also increased, 
making north Kachchh area of 250km 
x150km sparsely active by 2008 with mostly 
M<4 shocks. 
The activity had also spread towards south to 
Saurashtra and mainland Gujarat: 120km by 
2006, 200km by 2007 and 400km by 2008 
along several faults. At three sites the 
activity is in the form of sequences along 
faults with largest shocks of M≤5 and several 
hundreds of M≥0.5 shocks recorded on local 
networks. At some sites the sequences had 
fewer shocks. Only one such sequence was 
reported earlier during 1986 in south 
The shear deformation for adjustment 
process in Bhuj earthquake zone is now 
negligible as deduced from only 2-3 mm/yr 
movements of GPS stations. The viscoelastic 
process / rheology change appears to be the 
plausible mechanism for long distance and 
delayed triggering of earthquakes with 
diffusion rates of 5-50 km/yr. 
Influence of Solar Wind Plasma and 
Interplanetary Magnetic Field on the 
Low-latitude Geomagnetic Variations 
During Descending Phase of Solar Cycle 
Rawat, Rashmi [*R Rawat*] (Indian Institute 
of Geomagnetism, Plot No. 5, Sector-18 Near 
Kalamboli Highway, Navi Mumbai, 
Maharashtra-410218, Tel: +91-22-
27484060; Fax: +91-22-27480762; Mobile: 
+91-9769122383; e-mail: 
rashmir10@gmail.com); S Alex (Indian 
Institute of Geomagnetism, Plot No. 5, 
Sector-18 Near Kalamboli Highway, Navi 
Mumbai, Maharashtra-410218, Tel: +91-22-
27484005; Fax: +91-22-27480762; e-mail: 
salex@INDIANs.INDIANm.res.in); G S 
Lakhina (Indian Institute of Geomagnetism, 
Plot No. 5, Sector-18 Near Kalamboli 
Highway, Navi Mumbai, Maharashtra-
410218, Tel: +91-22-27484127; Fax: +91-
22-27480762; e-mail: 
Occurrence characteristics of transient 
sporadic emissions from the Sun, like solar 
flares and coronal mass ejections vary during 
different phases of solar cycle. Solar cycle 23 
witnessed numerous energetic solar 
eruptions in the descending phase (2002-
2006) unlike the previous solar cycles. Many 
intense geomagnetic storm events were 
produced by these eruptions. Geomagnetic 
storms are large disturbances in the 
geomagnetic field caused when highly 
energetic charged particles emitted from the 
Sun penetrate into the Earth’s 
magnetosphere and enhance existing current 
systems therein. Investigative analysis is 
carried out to ascertain the contribution of 
solar wind and interplanetary parameters like 
IMF By, Bz and dynamic pressure for 
development of intense main phase for the 
storms occurred during the descending phase 
of solar cycle 23. Geoeffectiveness of the 
rapidly changing interplanetary conditions on 
the geomagnetic field variations are 
examined using the digital magnetic data 
from the chain of low-latitude geomagnetic 
observatories in the Indian longitude sector 
along with the multisatellite observations of 
solar wind plasma and interplanetary 
parameters. Interplanetary drivers like 
interplanetary coronal mass ejections 
(ICMEs) comprising magnetic cloud 
structures responsible for producing 
significant southward Bz are also discussed. 
Nonlinear Solitary Electric Field 
Structures in the Earth's Magnetosphere 
Reddy, Virupakshi [*R V Reddy*] (Indian 
Institute of Geomagnetism, New Panvel, Navi 
Mumbai - 410218, India; ph. +91-22-
27484000; fax +91-22-27480762; e-mail: 
vreddy@INDIANs.INDIANm.res.in); R 
Pottelette (LPP-CNRS/INSU, 4 avenue de 
Neptune, 94107 Saint-Maur des Fosses, 
France; ph. 33-1-45114263; fax 33-1-
48894433; e-mail: 
Electrostatic solitary waves exhibiting 
unipolar, bipolar and tripolar pulses in the 
electric field parallel to the ambient magnetic 
field have been observed throughout the 
Earth's magnetospheric regions such as 
plasma sheet boundary layer, auroral 
ionosphere and the bow shock. The most 
commonly observed solitary waves in the 
Earth's magnetosphere are electron solitary 
waves and ion solitary waves. The fluid 
theory of plasmas is being used by several 
authors to study the nonlinear evolution of 
electron and ion solitary waves in a multispecies space plasmas. The electron (ion) 
solitary waves are also interpreted as 
Bernstein-Greene-Kruskal (BGK) electron 
(ion) phase space holes by using kinetic 
theory of plasmas. The BGK nonlinear 
structures are formed through a process of 
coalescence of the vortices of the trapped 
particles in an electric potential well, which 
are described by solutions of nonlinear 
Vlasov-Poisson system of equations in a 
Page 48 collisionless plasma. Using one dimensional 
electrostatic particle simulation code in a 
multi-species plasma we study the nonlinear 
evolution of electric field structures in an 
auroral plasma consisting of cold, hot, and 
beam electrons and ions. We discuss the 
evolution of both solitary waves and envelop 
solitary waves and the results are compared 
with satellite observations. 
Examination of the Distribution of 
Maximum Earthquake Magnitudes by 
Combining the GEV and GPD Limit 
Distributions of Extreme Value Theory 
Rodkin, Mikhail M.V. Rodkin (Geophysical 
Centre, Russian Academy of Sciences, 
Moscow; ph. +7(495) 9300546; fax. 
+7(495) 9300506; email: rodkin@wdcb.ru); 
V.F.Pisarenko (International Institute of 
Earthquake Prediction Theory and 
Mathematical Geophysics,  Russian Academy 
of Sciences, Moscow;  ph. +7 (495) 333-
4513; fax. +7 (495) 333-4124; email: 
A new method for the statistical estimation of 
the tail of the distribution of rare strong 
events is presented for the cases of 
earthquake sizes recorded in the Harvard 
catalog of seismic moments converted to 
Mw-magnitudes and a few regional catalogs. 
The method is based on the two main limit 
theorems of the theory of extreme values 
and on the derived duality between the 
Generalized Pareto Distribution (GPD) and 
Generalized Extreme Value distribution 
(GEV). We establish the direct relations 
between the parameters of these 
distributions, which permit to evaluate the 
distribution of the T-maxima of earthquake 
size in future time intervals of arbitrary 
duration T. We develop several procedures 
and check points to decrease the scatter of 
the estimates and to verify their consistency. 
The traditionally used maximum magnitude  
Mmax values are shown to be potentially non 
robust  that can explain the known fact of  
repetition of underestimations in the Mmax 
value evaluation in seismic assessment. We 
test our procedure on the global Harvard 
catalog (1977-2006), the regional 
Fennoscandia catalog (1900-2005), and 
Japan catalog (1923-2007). The tail 
distribution behavior can be characterized 
besides the Mmax values by quantile Qq (T) 
at any desirable statistical level q and time 
interval T. The quantile Qq(T) provides a 
much more stable and robust characteristic 
of seismic risk than the traditionally used 
absolute maximum magnitude  Mmax value; 
note that Mmax can be obtained as the limit 
of Qq(T) for large T values. Because of result 
of such comparison we recommend to use in 
seismic risk assessment Qq(T) values instead 
of potentially non robust Mmax values. The 
same statistical approach can be used in 
other cases of examination of risk resulting 
from the rare strong events. 
Seismicity in the Generalized Vicinity of 
Strong Earthquake as the Most Studied 
Example of Arising of Instability in 
Natural Systems 
Rodkin, Mikhail M.V. Rodkin (Geophysical 
Institute, Russian Academy of Sciences, 
Moscow; ph. +7(495) 9300546; fax. 
+7(495) 9300506; email; rodkin@wdcb.ru) 
The earthquake origin is probably the most 
known example of origin of instability in 
natural systems. However, even in this 
carefully studied case there are a few notions 
on the typical features of the process of pre- 
and post- period of strong earthquake 
seismicity. Having this vagueness in mind the 
average evolution typical of the vicinity of 
strong earthquakes was examined. 
Earthquake catalogs were used to construct a 
generalized space–time vicinity of large 
earthquakes and to investigate the seismicity 
behavior in the generalized vicinity of strong 
earthquke. The character of the inverse 
cascade (increase in seismicity rate toward 
the moment of the main shock) and of the 
aftershocks, as well as the weak seismicity 
increase occurring in the larger vicinity of the 
main shock were examined. It was shown 
that the inverse and aftershock cascades are 
accompanied by several anomalies indicating 
the decrease in strength of the lithosphere in 
the space–time vicinity of strong earthquake; 
this effect consists in decrease of apparent 
stress values, an increase in relative 
contribution of lower frequency domain into 
the earthquake oscillations spectrum, and an 
increase of correlation (homogeneity) of 
strain state in the vicinity of strong events. 
The revealed features concern to a common 
development of instability irrespective of a 
particular mechanism of instability origin, 
and to a more specific features characterizing 
the physical mechanism of process of very 
seismic instability. 
Complex Seismic Structures in the 
Andaman-Sumatra Subduction Zone:  
Fractal Dimension and b-Value Mapping 
Roy, Sohini [*S Roy*] Uma Pal1, Sugata 
Hazra and J R Kayal ( School of 
Oceanographic Studies, Jadavpur Univesity, 
Page 49 Kolkata 700032,  and  1  Lalbaba College, 
Howrah, India) 
The Anadaman-Sumatra subduction zone is 
seismically one of the most active and 
complex subduction zones that produced the 
December 26, 2004 mega thrust earthquake 
(Mw 9.3) and large number of aftershocks. 
About 8100 epicenters, including more than 
3000 aftershocks (M>4.5) of the 2004 
earthquake, recorded during the period 1918 
- 2007, are relocated by the EHB method. 
We have analysed this large data set to map 
the fractal dimension and b-value 
characteristics of the seismogenic structures 
of this ~ 3000 km long mega thrust 
subduction zone  in southeast Asia in the 
region between 15°S-15°N latitude and 
90°E-125°E longitude. 
Fractal dimension, more precisely the 
correlation dimension ( D2 ) of the 
epicenters, and the  b-value, the frequencymagnitude relation of the earthquakes, are 
estimated using the above large data set. 
The D2 is estimated by the correlation 
integral technique and the b-value by the 
maximum likelihood method. In order to 
spatially map the D2 and b-value, the study 
area is divided into 2°×2° grid with an 
overlapping of 1°. The grids are overlapped 
along the X direction, Y direction and both in 
X-Y direction.  This exercise generated about 
200 grids with at least 50 events in each 
grid. Center of each grid is taken as the 
plotting point for making contour maps.  
The maps revealed the major complex 
geological structures of the region, like the 
Andaman-Sumatra trench, West Andaman 
fault (WAF), Sumatra fault,  and the 
Andaman Sea Ridge (ASR), the back arc 
spreading zone with an quantitative 
estimates of D2 and b-value. A prominent 
NW-SE trending contours with fractal 
dimensions between 0.70 and 1.4 indicate 
that the epicenters mostly follow linear 
features, which are basically correlated with 
the major seismogenic structures of the 
region. The spatial variation of fractal 
dimension is prominent; the D2 <1.0 
indicates more of a cluster zone of the 
epicenters, where as the structures with D2> 
1.0  indicates that the seismogenic structure  
is  more    linear  in  nature.    It  may  be  noted 
that linear nature of the seismogenic  
structures  increases from north to south, 
from the ASR to the Sumatra fault. The 
Andaman-Sumatra trench shows fractal 
dimension ~ 1.0 in some parts, but in major 
parts it shows greater fractal dimension ~ 
1.80, which indicates a 2-dimensional nature 
of the trench.  Similar observation is made at 
the ASR. A spatial variation of the b-value 
(0.8-1.8) is also observed; along the 
Andaman-Sumatra trench the  b-value is 
higher ( 1.4-1.8 ).  The b-value is much low 
along the WAF and Sumatra fault, whereas 
the D2 is higher along these structures; a 
negative correlation between the fractal 
dimension and b-value is thus observed in 
the subduction region. 
Extreme Events, Return Intervals and 
Long Term Memory 
Santhanam, M.S. [M. S. Santhanam] Indian 
Institute of Science Education and Research, 
Sai Trinity, Pashan, Pune 411 021, Phone : 
020 2590 8088, Email : 
One of the important quantities of interest in 
the study of extreme events is the 
distribution of times between successive 
occurrences of the extreme events or the 
return intervals. This is useful for estimation 
of probabilities for the next occurrence of 
extreme event and also as an indirect 
method to characterise and infer the 
autocorrelation exponent of a process. For an 
uncorrelated or memory less process, the 
return interval distribution is known to be an 
exponential. Hence, in this case, the 
probability for return intervals being much 
longer than the average are very low. On the 
other hand, most of the natural processes as 
well as many of the socio-economic time 
series display long term memory. For 
example, it is known that the magnitude of 
earth quakes, temperature records, river flow 
records, precipitation etc. display long term 
memory. This implies that their 
autocorrelation function displays a slow 
algebraic decay. In such cases, what is the 
return interval distribution for extreme 
events? In this work, we obtain an 
approximate analytical expression for the 
return interval distribution of extreme events 
for long range correlated time series. It turns 
out that the distribution we obtain is a 
product of a power law and a stretched 
exponential and depends on (i) the 
autocorrelation exponent of the original time 
series and (ii) on the threshold used to 
define the extreme event. We obtain a good 
agreement with the simulation results as well 
as with the observed data. We also point out 
some of the limitations of our result. 
Page 50 Archives of Extreme Events in Holocene 
in the Himalaya 
Sati, S.P. [S. P. Sati] Department of Geology, 
HNB Garhwal University, Srinagar Garhwal 
Uttarakhand, India 246174, 
The Himalaya is known as a multi hazard 
prone regions of the world. Most of its 
landscapes are either the result or largely 
influenced by either extreme climatic events 
or tectonic pulses or the combination of both. 
These events have been the destiny of this 
loftiest and youngest mountain system of the 
world throughout its geological past, though 
the size and extend may be varied at time to 
time. Efforts are being made the reconstruct 
the dimension and timing of these events.  
It  is  found  that  in  most  of  the  parts  of  the 
Himalaya, the traditional tools are not much 
effective to record the extreme events of 
past. Present paper is an attempt to 
describes some convincing tools to find the 
imprints of these events. The paper also 
deals that why these tools are effective in 
reconstructing the past extreme events. 
Study of Coseismic Ground Deformation 
Due to Recent Earthquakes & Crustal 
Deformation Measurements on Active 
Faults In and Around India Using SAR 
Satyabala, S.P. [*S.P. Satyabala*]  (National 
Geophysical Research Institute, Uppal Road, 
HYDERABAD - 500 007, India; ph: 91-040-
23434683; e-mail: 
The technique of SAR Interferometry (InSAR) 
has been used to study recent earthquakes 
and active faults in and around the Indian 
tectonic plate.  Our InSAR data for the 1999 
Chamoli, 1993 Latur earthquakes are the 
only geodetic measurements for these 
earthquakes.  InSAR studies of two active 
faults, viz the Chaman Fault and the Salt 
Ranges were taken up as both the regions 
exhibit very low levels of seismicity.  InSAR 
study of the Chaman Fault, on the western 
margin of the Indian plate, revealed a slow 
earthquake. In the Salt Range region, InSAR 
study revealed seismic rupture of the 
décollement beneath the Kohat plateau.  
These results will be presented emphasizing 
their importance for Seismic Hazard studies 
in and around India. 
Multifractal Extreme Value Theory (MEV) 
Schertzer, D. D.  Schertzer1,2, 
Tchiguirinskaia1,3,  S.  Lovejoy4, P. Hubert5 
, 1 University Paris-Est,  Ecole des Ponts 
ParisTech, Marne-la-Vallée, France, 2 Meteo 
France, CNRM, Toulouse, France, 3 
Cemagref, OHAX, Aix-en-Provence, France, 4 
McGill University, Physics Department, 
Montreal, Quebec, Canada, 5 University P.& 
M. Curie, SISYPHE, Paris, France 
The classical Extreme Value theory is an 
extremely convenient mathematical 
framework that is widely used in all scientific 
domains, e.g. from theoretical physics to 
engineering applications.  Indeed, the 
resulting and ubiquitous Generalized Extreme 
Value distribution (GEV) is often considered 
as the universal probability distribution of 
time-series extrema. However, it suffers 
from strong limitations: it cannot be 
extended to long range time-series or 
processes and becomes a bit weird for non 
uni-dimensional fields.  
We first argue that the multifractal 
framework is rather generic to study the 
extremes of long range and /or higher 
dimensional fields and leads in a rather 
straightforward manner to an alternative 
extreme value theory. The already available 
applications to geophysical fields, in 
particular rainfall and river discharges, are 
amply discussed.  
Continuous Time Random Maxima:  
Stochastic Models for Estimating 
Recurrence of Extreme Events in Time 
Series With Long Range Correlations 
Schumer, Rina [*R Schumer*](Division of 
Hydrologic Sciences, Desert Research 
Institute, Reno, NV 89512; ph. 775-827-
2752; email: rina@dri.edu 
<mailto:rina@dri.edu>); B Baeumer 
(Department of Mathematics and Statistics, 
University of Otago, Dunedin, NZ; ph. 64-
479-7763; email.  
bbaeumer@maths.otago.ac.nz); D A 
Benson(Department of Geology and 
Geological Engineering, Colorado School of 
Mines, Golden, CO 80401; ph.303-273-3806; 
email dbenson@mines.edu 
<mailto:dbenson@mines.edu>); M M 
Meerschaert(Department of Statistics and 
Probability, Michigan State University, East 
Lansing, MI 48823; ph. 517-353-8881; 
email: mcubed@stt.msu.edu) 
Power-law interarrivals can be the source of 
long-range correlations found in Earth, 
Page 51 atmospheric, and geospace time series. Long 
term evolution of these time series have 
been modeled using continuous time random 
walks (CTRW) and fractional kinetic 
equations that govern CTRW scaling limits.  
However, these models can not quantify the 
recurrence of extreme events that result in 
high cost or physical risk to humans.   
Continuous time random maxima (CTRM) are 
similar to CTRW but track event maxima 
instead of sums.  Their solutions are 
probability densities governing the size of the 
largest event over time and can be used to 
calculate recurrence intervals.  CTRM 
generalize classical extreme value models 
through accommodation of non-Poissonian 
interarrivals such as power-laws.  Densities 
that are limiting solutions to CTRM with 
random power law waiting times can be 
obtained via subordination of classical EV 
densities (Gumbel, Frechet).  CTRM can also 
be designed to predict recurrence of 
extremes when event magnitude is 
dependent on interarrival length. 
Modeling to Assess Tsunami Effects on 
the Indian Coasts from Earthquakes 
Along Makran and Andaman-Sumatra 
Subduction Zones 
Singh, Ajay Pratrap [*A.P. Singh*] and B. K. 
Rastogi (Institute of Seismological Research 
(ISR), Raisan, Gandhinagar-382009, Gujarat, 
India, email: apsingh07@gmail.com) 
East coast of India is affected by tsunami 
generated along Andaman-Sumatra 
subduction zone and west coast from Makran 
subduction zone. Modeling of tsunami 
amplitude, travel time and run-up have been 
made for the Indian coasts from both the 
sources using Tunami N2. The bathymetry 
data is taken from ETOPO-2 and near shore 
data from C-MAP. For tsunami run-up the 
land topography data was collected using 
SRTM data. 
Makran, Fault strike 270°: The fault 
parameters of the earthquakes for the 
generation of tsunami are: fault area (200km 
length and 100km width), angle of strike, dip 
and slip (270°, 15° and 90°), focal-depth (10 
km), magnitude (8.0). From the source in 
central part of Makran the amplitude of 
tsunami near the source is 6m and Gujarat 
coast is 4.5m or less (Jakhau 4.5 m, 
Porbandar 4.0 m and Dwarka 3.0 m). In Gulf 
of Kutch tsunami reaches in 3 hr with 1m run 
up. The simulation of model results show 
that the tsunami wave propagated initially 
very fast in Arabian Sea and it slowed down 
when it reached shallow region of Gujarat 
coast. The tsunami waves reach the Indian 
coast in 2hr that is in good agreement with 
the 1945 tsunami travel times given by 
Pendse (1948). At Dwarka, positive tsunami 
waves arrive within approximately 2 hours 
and 10 minutes and to Mandvi after 3 hours 
10 minutes. If the tsunami strikes during 
high tide, we should expect more serious 
hazards which impacts local coastal 
Makran, Fault strike 250° and other 
parameters as above: Directivity is found to 
be directed towards India. If the source is 
considered along the western part of Makran 
the travel time increases. 
Andaman-Sumatra, 1300km fault divided 
into five segments: Each segment is 
assumed to have different fault parameters. 
The northern three segments are found to be 
contributing to the tsunami amplitude 
affecting east coast of India. The combined 
effect of all the segments is also estimated. 
This estimate gives 7-8 m run up at 
Nagapatanam (which matches well with the 
observation than 5 m estimated by other 
workers considering only one fault in their 
Characteristics of Auroral Electrojets 
During Intense Geomagnetic Activities 
Singh, Anand [*Anand K. Singh*] (Indian 
Institute of Geomagnetism, Navi Mumbai, 
India - 410 218, Ph. No. +91 22 27484054, 
Fax +91 22 27480762, e-mail: 
singhaaks@gmail.com); A. K. Sinha (Indian 
Institute of Geomagnetism, Navi Mumbai, 
India - 410 218, Ph. No. +91 22 27484054, 
Fax +91 22 27480762, e-mail: 
ashwini@INDIANs.INDIANm.res.in); B. M. 
Pathan (Indian Institute of Geomagnetism, 
Navi Mumbai, India - 410 218, Ph. No. +91 
22 27484145, Fax +91 22 27480762, email:bmpathan@INDIANs.INDIANm.res.in); 
Rahul Rawat (Indian Institute of 
Geomagnetism, Navi Mumbai, India - 410 
218, Ph. No. +91 22 27484051, Fax +91 22 
27480762, e-mail: rahulINDIAN@gmail.com) 
Variations in auroral electrojet indices, AU 
and AL during the intense geomagnetic 
storms, representing the maximum current 
density of the eastward and westward 
auroral electrojets, respectively, have been 
investigated in conjunction with 
interplanetary conditions. It is found that 
sometimes during the main phase of intense 
storms the AU index comes close to zero or 
even becomes negative in some cases. This 
gives an impression that the eastward 
Page 52 auroral electrojet disappears for sometime 
during intense storms and the whole auroral 
oval is dominated by westward electrojet 
only. Movement of eastward electrojet 
towards the equator could lead to such 
phenomena as auroral stations are under the 
sole influence of westward electrojet. Few 
intense cases have been looked into by 
examining magnetic data from chain of 
stations so that such movement could be 
tracked. The similarities and dissimilarities 
between normal and intense events, defined 
in terms of Dst index, have been brought 
Site-Dependent Attenuation Study for 
Peninsular Shield of India 
Singh, Chandrani [*Chandrani Singh*] 
(National Geophysical Research Institute, 
Council of Scientific and Industrial Research, 
Uppal Road, Hyderabad 500007, India; 
phone: (040)-23434700 (extn 2349); email: 
chandranigoswami@rediffmail.com); S. 
Karimulla Basha, (National Geophysical 
Research Institute, Council of Scientific and 
Industrial Research, Uppal Road, Hyderabad 
500007, India; phone: (040)-23434700 
(extn 2349); email: 
karimullabasha.cud@gmail.com); M. Shekar 
(National Geophysical Research Institute, 
Council of Scientific and Industrial Research, 
Uppal Road, Hyderabad 500007, India; 
phone: (040)-23434700 (extn 2349); email: 
shekar@ngri.res.in); R. K. Chadha (National 
Geophysical Research Institute, Council of 
Scientific and Industrial Research, Uppal 
Road, Hyderabad 500007, India; phone: 
(040)- 23434630; email: chadha@ngri.res.in 
The knowledge of regional values of 
attenuation factor Coda Qc and its spatial 
variation attracts considerable interest in 
relation to tectonics and seismicity, being an 
important subject in seismic risk analysis and 
engineering seismology. For the present 
study Qc estimates have been obtained by 
analyzing coda waves of ~ 400 local 
earthquakes in the Indian Peninsular shield 
to find whether the distinct geologic 
provinces of Indian shield region with 
differential heat variation show any disparate 
attenuation characteristics. The earthquakes 
have their epicentral distances within 250 km 
with 2.5_ M _ 4.0. The investigation sites 
include four from the Archaean Dharwar 
craton, one from the Proterozoic Cuddapah 
basin of southern India, one from Eastern 
Ghat, lower Gondwana belt, three from the 
southern part of the Cretaceous-Eocen 
Deeccan Volcanic Province (DVP) of central 
India and one site from recent Cenozoic era. 
Qc  estimation  is  done  at  different  central 
frequencies with variation of lapse time 
starting at double the travel time of the Swave. The result indicates the level of crustal 
heterogeneities to varying degrees. 
Recent Extreme Wet and Dry Spells 
Across India
Singh, Nityanand [*Nityanand Singh*] 
(Climatology and Hydrometeorology Division, 
Indian Institute of Tropical Meteorology, Dr. 
Homi Bhabha Road, Pashan, Pune – 411008, 
India; ph. 020-25893600; fax 020-
25893825; email: nsingh@tropmet.res.in); 
Ashwini Ranade (Climatology and 
Hydrometeorology Division, Indian Institute 
of Tropical Meteorology, Dr. Homi Bhabha 
Pashan, Pune – 411 008, India; ph. 020-
25893600; fax 020-25893825; email: 
For the analysis of wet and dry spells the 
country has been divided into 19 subregions 
by considering spatial annual rainfall 
distribution, physiography, drainage and 
onset and withdrawal of the summer 
monsoon. Daily rainfall of 1˚ grid cells over 
the country for the period 1951-2007 is used 
in the study. The wet (dry) spell has been 
identified by applying an objective criterion ‘a 
continuous period with daily rainfall equal to 
or greater than (less than) daily mean 
monsoon rainfall (DMMR) over the area of 
interest’. Variability of rainfall amount, 
rainfall intensity, duration and starting date 
of extreme wet (dry) spells in respect of 
(i.r.o.) of rainfall amount, rainfall intensity 
and duration is reported. In total, 
characteristics of 24 parameters of the 
extreme wet and dry spells have been 
RAINFALL AMOUNT - Duration of extreme 
WSs in this category is longer (22-30 days) 
over the south peninsula and West Coast and 
shorter (13-21 days) elsewhere; rainfall 
amount higher (590-1051mm) along the 
West Coast followed by 361-367mm over 
WCI, ECI and NEI and lower (154-338mm) 
elsewhere; and rainfall intensity greater (32-
40mm/day) along the West Coast followed 
by 17-20mm/day over east/northeast India 
and weaker (11-16mm/day) elsewhere. In 
general, the duration of extreme WSs is 2.16 
times longer than that of the actual WS 
(SDAI = 8.7 days), rainfall amount 2.34 
times (SDAI = 173.2mm) and rainfall 
intensity 1.12 times (SDAI = 4mm/day). The 
spell occurs over parts of WC, northeast and 
Page 53 extreme north during the month of June, 
over most parts during July and over the 
southeastern peninsula, moving from North 
to South, during August, September and 
October. The SDAI is about 27.3 days which 
suggests that extreme WS can occur 
anywhere during the period of rainfall 
activities. The heaviest amongst subregional 
extremes occurred over the SCWC (SR3) 
which started on 24 June 1961, continued for 
42 days and produced rainfall of 2080.2mm 
at the rate of 49.5mm/day. The year 1961 
was the wettest recorded since 1813.  
RAINFALL INTENSITY - Duration of such 
extreme WS is longer (15-23 days) over the 
south peninsula and West Coast and shorter 
(6-12 days) elsewhere; rainfall amount is 
higher (504-520mm) along the West Coast 
and 259-292mm over ESEP and WCI and 
lower (87-205mm) elsewhere; and rainfall 
intensity greater (35-43mm/day) over the 
West Coast followed by 20-25mm/day over 
east/northeast India and weaker (12-
19mm/day) elsewhere. Broadly, duration of 
the extreme WS is 1.33 times (SDAI =8.5 
days), rainfall amount 1.65 times (SDAI 
=185.6mm) and rainfall intensity 1.27 times 
(SDAI = 4.1mm/day) than that of the actual 
WS. Rainfall amount and rainfall intensity is 
higher over high (annual) rainfall areas and 
lower over low rainfall areas. Duration, 
however, shows a typical spatial pattern- it 
increases from north/northeast to 
south/southeast. The extreme WS can start 
around 10 July along WC, 30 July over the 
northwest, 10 August over the 
east/northeast and 30 September-15 
October over the southeast peninsula. The 
SDAI is about 48.3 days which suggests 
occurrence of extreme WS anywhere 
between the first and last WSs, inclusive. The 
most intense extreme wet spell occurred 
over NWC (SR-8) starting on 20 June 2005 
with rainfall amount of 1042.2 mm, rainfall 
intensity of 61.3mm/day and duration of 17 
DURATION - Duration is longer (23-31 days) 
along the West Coast and over the central 
peninsula and shorter (14-22 days) 
elsewhere; rainfall amount was higher (576-
1046mm) along the West Coast followed by 
341-366 mm over central and northeast 
India and lower 145-314mm elsewhere; and 
rainfall intensity 30-39mm/day over the West 
Coast and 9-19mm/day over other places. 
The average duration for the whole country is 
2.23 times (SDAI =8.4 days), rainfall amount 
2.28 times (SDAI =176.6mm) and rainfall 
intensity 1.04 times (SDAI =3.4mm/day) 
than that of the actual WS. The duration 
increases from northwest to extreme 
southeast peninsula, however, rainfall 
amount and rainfall intensity is higher over 
highlands and low over plains. It starts 
around 30 June along the West Coast and 
northeast, during July over areas north of 
18˚N, mid-August over the central peninsula 
(SRs 6 and 7) and 10-25 September over the 
southeast peninsula. The SDAI is about 24.7 
days suggesting occurrence of extreme WS 
anywhere during the period of seasonal 
rainfall activities. The longest wet spell on 
record occurred over SR2 starting on 28 June 
2005 with duration of 91 days, rainfall 
amount of 1645.2 mm and rainfall intensity 
of 18.1mm/day. In general, the different 
extreme wet spells are lengthier (2.16 
times), wetter (2.09 times) and more intense 
(1.14 times) than the actual. 
RAINFALL AMOUNT - Duration is 11-16 days 
over northern India and 4-7 days over all 
other subregions; rainfall amount 24-49mm 
over the West Coast, 1-7mm over the 
southern peninsula and 9-17mm elsewhere; 
and rainfall intensity near-zero (0.4-
2mm/day) over hot, dry regions of the 
northwest and southern peninsula, 6-
11mm/day along the West Coast and 3-
4mm/day over other places. Broadly, the 
duration of extreme DSs is shorter (0.42 
times) than the actual DS; the rainfall 
amount lower (0.34 times) and the rainfall 
intensity slight weaker (0.96 times). Such 
extreme DS occurs during July over western 
India (SRs 1, 3, 5, 8, 11 and 15) and 
northeastern parts, during August over 
central and eastern parts, and during 8-11 
September over the southeastern peninsula 
(SRs 2 and 4). The most extreme DS of nil 
rainfall occurred over dry regions of ESEP 
during 24-25 December 1965, SCP on 13 
September 1960 and NNWI on 31 July 1983. 
RAINFALL INTENSITY - Duration of extreme 
DSs is shortest (10 days) over CIGP (SR17) 
and it increases in all directions: 37 days 
over ENI, 26 days over NNWI, 23 days over 
SCWC and 13 days over ESEP; rainfall 
amount is 7mm over NNWI, 3-9mm over SCP 
and SEP, 72-154 mm along the West Coast 
and 18-51mm elsewhere; and rainfall 
intensity near-zero (< 2mm/day) over NNWI, 
SCP, CEC, CSEP and ESEP, 3-8mm/day along 
WC and 2-3mm/day elsewhere. For the 
country as a whole, the duration of extreme 
DS is 1.28 times than that of actual DS; 
rainfall amount 0.87 times and rainfall 
intensity 0.64 times. Such extreme DS 
occurs around 18 June over ENI (SR19), 
during July along the West Coast and SNWI 
Page 54 (SRs 1, 3, 5 and 11), CIGP (SR17) and NEI 
(SR18), during August over almost the entire 
area of central India and ESEP (SR2) and 
around 21 September over CSEP (SR4). The 
most extreme DS with the lowest rainfall 
intensity (0.0mm/day) occurred over ESEP 
during 24-25 December 1965 and over NNWI 
on 31 July 1983. 
DURATION - Duration is shortest (24 days) 
over CIGP and ECI and it increases to 32 
days over NEI, 36 days over NNWI, 50 days 
over ENI and 58 days over ESEP; rainfall 
amount is lowest (13mm) over NNWI and it 
increases to 220mm along the West Coast, 
89mm over NEC, 150mm over ENI and 
78mm over ENI; and rainfall intensity nearzero (<2mm/day) over NNWI and the 
southeast peninsula, 5-9mm/day along the 
West Coast and 2-5mm/day elsewhere. 
Broadly, the duration of extreme DSs is 1.28 
times the duration of an actual DS, rainfall 
amount 1.93 times and rainfall intensity 0.89 
times. It occurs around 15 May over ESEP 
(SR2), during June over CSEP (SR4) and ENI 
(SR19) and during July-August over 
remaining areas. The most extreme dry spell 
occurred over NNWI (SR15) starting from 8 
July 1980; duration was 168 days, rainfall 
amount 56.3 mm and rainfall intensity 
0.3mm/day. In recent years/decades, 
persistent positive/negative tendencies 
spread over 11 or more subregions are seen 
in some of the parameters. Notable among 
them are a decreasing tendency in duration 
and an increasing tendency in rainfall 
intensity of actual and extreme WSs, and an 
increasing tendency in duration and a 
decreasing tendency in rainfall intensity of 
actual and extreme DSs. These changes in 
rainfall time distribution appear to be related 
to changes in frequency, duration and 
intensity of rain producing weather systems. 
Over the country, the number and duration 
of low pressure areas (LPA; central pressure 
difference of 2mb from surrounding and 
surface wind speed <17 knots) show an 
increasing trend since 1961 at the rate of 
1.4/10-year and 8.1 days/10-year 
respectively, and the number and duration of 
depressions/storms (DDS; central pressure 
difference >2mb from surrounding and 
surface wind speed >17knots) shows a 
significant decreasing trend at the rate of 
1.5/10-year and 6 days/10- year 
respectively. Further it appears there is some 
change in middle tropospheric (850-500 hPa) 
circulations (trough, convergence zone and 
cyclonic circulations) due to a warmer 
environment. In random occurrences, if 
surface and middle tropospheric circulations 
were coherent (both lower and upper 
troposphere warmer) shorter, intense WSs 
occurred otherwise (lower and/or upper 
troposphere cooler) longer, severe DSs 
Extremely Long Duration Total Solar 
Eclipse on 22 July, 2009: Effect on Dregion Ionosphere Dynamics as Studied 
from VLF Signals Observations 
Singh, Rajesh [*Rajesh Singh*], B 
Veenadhari, A K Maurya, P Vohat (Indian 
Institute of Geomagnetism, New Panvel, Navi 
Mumbai – 410218 India; ph. 91-22-
27484191; fax 91-22-27480762; e-mail: 
rajeshsing03@gmail.com); P Pant 
(Aryabhatta Research Institute of 
Observational Sciences (ARIES), Manora 
Peak, Nainital – 263129 India; e-mail: 
ppant@aries.res.in); A K Singh (Physics 
Department, Banaras Hindu University, 
Varanasi – 221005 India; e-mail: 
abhay_s@rediffmail.com); M B Cohen, U S 
Inan (STAR laboratory, Stanford University, 
Stanford, California, USA; e-mail: 
mcohen@stanford.edu); Y-Sil Kwak (Korea 
Astronomy and Space Science Institute, 
Daejeon, South Korea; e-mail: 
yskwak@kasi.re.kr); S Park (KAIST, Bushan, 
South Korea; e-mail: smpark@kaist.ac.kr) 
An extremely long total eclipse of the Sun, 
greatest during the century happened to be 
observed on 22 July, 2009 from the narrow 
corridor on the Earths eastern hemisphere. 
The Moons umbral shadow began on western 
coast of India then moved through middle 
India, Nepal, Bhutan, China and after 
crossing mainland ended in Pacific Ocean. 
Solar eclipses are the rare events to observe 
and understand its effect on Earths geosphere for scientific community. As obvious, 
blocking of solar radiation during eclipse 
decrease the level of ionization and thus 
affects dynamical processes in different 
layers of the ionosphere. But it is the Dregion of the ionosphere which experiences 
drastic changes during eclipse. It is affected 
most because the principle sources of its 
ionization, the Lyman alpha line of solar 
spectrum (121.5 nm), EUV radiation (80-
111.8 nm) and X-ray (0.2-0.8 nm) are 
blocked for the duration of eclipse. Naturally 
occurring ELF/VLF broadband (03-30 kHz) 
and man-made VLF transmitter signals 
provides one of the best tool for continuous 
monitoring of D-region ionosphere. VLF 
waves travel long distances in Earthionosphere waveguide due to multiple 
reflections without any appreciable 
attenuation. A special campaign for the 
observation of VLF signals was carried out at 
Page 55 the three locations of Allahabad, Varanasi 
and Nainital in India. Two sites are located in 
the totality path and one out of the totality, 
suitable to study the D-region dynamics in 
and out of the totality region. Apart from 
broadband signals, amplitude and phase of 
the fixed frequency VLF transmitter signals 
were monitored. The signals monitored were 
JJI at 22.2 kHz, transmitting from Japan and 
NWC at 19.8 kHz from Australia. The path of 
JJI signals to sites in India is parallel to the 
movement of totality, whereas the NWC 
signal path is intersecting the totality path. 
The observation of JJI signal at Bushan, 
South Korea is also used in present study. 
The data analysis has revealed significant 
increase/decrease in amplitude and phase of 
the signal, signifying major change in the 
behavior of the D-region ionosphere. Lower 
boundary of the ionosphere, the D-region is 
pushed up by ~6-8 km during different 
phases of eclipse and decrease in electron 
density is also observed. Detailed results will 
be discussed during the conference. 
Electrostatic Solitary Waves in NonThermal Plasmas 
Singh, Satyavir [*S.V. Singh*] (Indian 
Institute of Geomagnetsim, New Panvel, Navi 
Mumbai-410210); G.S. Lakhina (Indian 
Institute of Geomagnetsim, New Panvel, Navi 
Mumbai-410210 ) 
Interaction of solar wind with the Earth’s 
magnetic field leads to the formation of the 
magnetosphere which has several boundary 
layers like magnetopause, plasmas sheet 
boundary layer and auroral zone etc. These 
boundary layers play important role in the 
distribution of energy extracted from solar 
wind to various regions of the 
magnetosphere. The free energy available in 
the boundary layers in the form of gradients 
and currents can drive several plasma waves 
at different scale lengths. Thus, the boundary 
layer offers an opportunity to study the 
physics of the variable scale plasma 
processes. Broadband plasma waves, having 
wide range of frequencies from lower hybrid 
to electron plasma frequency and above, 
have been observed by many satellites on 
the auroral and cusp field lines. The 
amplitude of the electric field of these waves 
can be from a few tens to hundreds of 
mV/m. Higher electric amplitude suggests 
importance ofnonlinear phenomena in Earth’s 
magnetosphere. Electrostatic solitary waves 
(ESWs) have been observed by many 
satellites in various regions of the Earth’s 
magnetosphere. These ESWs are found to be 
having bothpositive as well as negative 
potentials. Eare studied in a four-component 
unmagnetized plasma consisting of by using 
the Sagdeev pseudo-potential method. The 
amplitude, velocity and width associated with 
the electron-acoustic solitary waves are 
numerically obtained. ResultsEarth’s 
Application of Doppler Wind Lidar 
Observations to Improve Scientific 
Understanding and Forecasting of 
Extreme Weather Events 
Upendra N. Singh1, Michael J. Kavaya1, 
Robert M. Atlas2, and George D. Emmitt3, 
1NASA Langley Research Center, Hampton, 
VA 23681, USA, 2NOAA Atlantic 
Oceanographic and Meteorological 
Laboratory, Miami, FL 33133, USA, 3Simpson 
Weather Associates, Inc., Charlottesville, VA 
22902, USA 
For nearly 30 years, the atmospheric 
research community has been aware that 
pulsed laser-based Doppler wind lidars 
(DWL) promised new insights to the 
evolution of severe weather such as tropical 
cyclones, tornadic storms and mesoscale 
convective complexes. Although there have 
been a few airborne pulsed DWL field 
campaigns in this period, advances in the 
lidar technology and investment in its utility 
for atmospheric studies is now accelerating, 
being targeted at not only basic research but 
also operational meteorology and a future 
space-based mission. Recent (2008) 
experiments in the western Pacific involved 
two airborne pulsed DWL systems in a 
focused investigation of typhoon genesis and 
intensification. Results from that effort are 
now going into the design of an ambitious 
program of hurricane research using airborne 
lidars on such platforms as NOAA’s P3, 
NASA’s DC8 and Global Hawk and the Navy’s 
P3 and Twin Otter. If all goes as planned, 
within the next 5 years there will be more 
than 1000 flight hours of pulsed DWL 
equipped aircraft collecting data that has the 
potential to transform the way in which we 
monitor and predict the lifecycles of severe 
NASA Langley Research Center has a long 
history of developing 2-micron laser 
transmitter for wind sensing. With support 
from NASA Laser Risk Reduction Program 
(LRRP) and Instrument Incubator Program 
(IIP), NASA Langley Research Center has 
developed a state-of-the-art compact lidar 
transceiver for a pulsed coherent Doppler 
lidar system for wind measurement.  
Page 56 Recently, LaRC 2-micron coherent Doppler 
wind lidar system was selected to contribute 
to the NASA Science Mission Directorate 
(SMD) Earth Science Division (ESD) 
hurricane field experiment in 2010 titled 
Genesis and Rapid Intensification Processes 
(GRIP). The Doppler lidar system will 
measure vertical profiles of horizontal vector 
winds from the DC-8 aircraft using an 
existing 2-micron, pulsed, coherent 
detection, Doppler wind lidar system that is 
ready for DC-8 integration. The 
measurements will typically extend from the 
DC-8 to the earth’s surface. They will be 
highly accurate in both wind magnitude and 
direction. Displays of the data will be 
provided  in  real  time  on  the  DC-8.  The 
pulsed Doppler wind lidar is much more 
powerful than past Doppler lidars. The 
operating range, accuracy, range resolution, 
and time resolution will be unprecedented. 
We expect the data to play a key role, 
combined with the other sensors, in 
improving understanding and predictive 
algorithms for hurricane strength and track. 
Inversion of 2-D Resistivity Data Using 
Rapid Optimization and Minimal 
Complexity Neural Network 
Singh, Upendra [*U. K. Singh*]; R. K. 
Tiwari2; S. B. Singh2, 1Indian School of 
Mines University Dhanbad- 826 004, India, 
2National Geophysical Research Institute, 
The steepest descent method of optimization 
algorithm, backpropagation (BP) is well 
known for poor performance and 
unfortunately a proof of global convergence 
for an algorithm does not ensure that it is an 
efficient method. The inappropriateness of BP 
for Artificial Neural Network (ANN) training is 
the subject of considerable research activity. 
Well-established optimization methods, as 
well as novel algorithms, frequently used 
Radial basis and Levenberg–Marquardt (LMA) 
algorithms appear in the neural network 
literature. Our own work has addressed the 
suitability of fast inversion technique LMA of 
the interpretation of data resistivity surveys, 
simulated annealing algorithms for 
computational neural network training. 
Improvements in the computational ANN 
modeling process are described with the 
goals of enhancing the optimization process 
and reducing ANN model complexity. 
Improvements to the optimization process 
not only speed computation also can enhance 
the quality of the result. Complex ANN model 
require more intensive optimization 
procedures and are considerably more 
difficult to interpret. The efficiency of trained 
LMA and Radial basis (RB) network by results 
is applied and tested on synthetic 2-d 
resistivity data and finally applied to actual 
field vertical electrical resistivity sounding 
(VES) data collected from the Puga Valley, 
Jammu and Kashmir, India. This ANN 
reconstruction resistivity results are 
compared with the result of conventional 
inversion approach, which are in good 
agreement. The depths and resistivity 
structures obtained by the ANN methods 
correlate extremely well with the known 
drilling results and geologic boundaries. 
Identification of Seismicity Pattern for 
Some Destructive Earthquakes 
Singharoy, Pareshnath  [*P.  N.  S. 
Roy*](Department of  Applied Geophysics, 
Indian School of Mines University, Dhanbad-
826 004, Jharkhand, INDIA; Phone: +91 326 
2235469; FAX: +91 326 2296563 E-mail: 
Mondal(Department of Applied Geophysics, 
Indian School of Mines University, Dhanbad-
826 004, Jharkhand, INDIA;FAX: +91 326 
2296563 E-mail: sarojbum@gmail.com) 
Earthquake occurrence pattern studies are 
carried out globally in order to make proper 
hazard estimate in a region spatially as well 
as temporarily. Scores of studies has 
contributed substantially but not robustly for 
the hazard estimate of a region. Here an 
attempt has been made to understand the 
spatio-temporal scaling of intermediate 
earthquakes prior to some of the strong 
earthquakes. The August 17, 1999 Izmit 
earthquake of 7.8Ms, November 3, 2002, 
Dennali earthquake of 8.5Ms, December 26, 
2004 Great Sumatra of 9Mw, October 8, 
2005 Muzafarabad Earthquake and May 12, 
2008 Sichuan Earthquake of 7.9Mb are some 
of the destructive earthquake studied with 
the help of spatial correlation fractal 
dimension (Dc) variation with time for the 
intermediate earthquake distribution. The 
scaling of intermediate earthquakes prior to 
the strong earthquakes shows that they are 
highly clustered which is indicated by low Dc. 
Identification of low Dc value for the  
clustering of intermediate earthquake from 
well constrained catalogue may be used as 
an indicator of strong earthquake of a 
seismically active region. Hazard map 
developed with this spatio-temporal pattern 
input for the active seismicity region will be 
more appealing for the purpose of disaster 
mitigation and management. 
Page 57 The Complex Nonlinear Process of 
Equatorial Spread F: How Far Are We 
From Operational Predictability? 
Sridharan, R. R. Sridharan, Space Physics 
Laboratory, Vikram Sarabahi Space Centre, 
Trivandrum, 695 022, Email: 
The post sunset phenomenon of Equatorial 
spread F is one of the most complex 
equatorial ionospheric processes that had 
been posing a challenge through its various 
manifestations.   Though the gross features 
are fairly well understood this being an 
outcome of mutually interacting neutral 
atmospheric and ionospheric processes, its 
day to day variability had been a real 
challenge.   Some of the recent results from 
systematic investigations have revealed that, 
one could circumvent the problem and even 
be able to make reasonable prediction of the 
phenomenon well ahead of its actual 
occurrence.   The role of the background 
ionospheric and thermospheric conditions 
and also the possible role of initial 
perturbations, the intensity and the duration 
of the phenomenon all being crucial for 
operational forecast would be highlighted 
with an aim to show how far we are from real 
operational forecasting. 
Estimation of the Ground Motion and 
Site Effects of Indo-Gangetic Plains 
Srinagesh, D. [*D. Srinagesh*] (Council of 
Scientific and Industrial Research, National 
Geophysical Research Institute, Hyderabad, 
India; Ph. +91-40-23434792; e-mail: 
srinagesh@ngri.res.in); R.K. Chadha (Council 
of Scientific and Industrial Research, National 
Geophysical Research Institute, Hyderabad, 
India; Ph. +91-40-23434630; e-mail: 
chadha@ngri.res.in), S.K. Singh (Institute of 
Geophysics, UNAM, Mexico, 
krishnamex@yahoo.com), A. Paul (Wadia 
Institute of Himalayan Geology, 33-GMS 
Road, Dehra Dun248001, India; 
ajaypaul@wihg.res.in) and  R.S. Dattatrayam 
(IMD, Lodi Road, New Delhi, India; e-mail: 
We have operated 10 broad band 
seismological stations in the Indo Gangetic 
plains and the Bundelkhand craton with the 
objective to quantify the ground motion due 
to earthquake sources are mainly from 
Himalaya. The site effect has been estimated 
by analyzing earthquakes which have been 
located near Khursali, Pithoragarh and Delhi 
of which the first two are from the Himalayan 
collision front. The magnitudes of all these 
earthquakes are around 4.7. The acceleration 
spectra for Khursali and Pithoragarh have 
been estimated at various locations in the 
Indo Gangetic plains vis a vis stations located 
in Bundelkhand craton and Uttaranchal 
Himalaya. The response spectra estimates 
clearly show the stations on the soft 
sediments have been modified and amplified 
in correspondence to the stations located on 
the hard rock. Using Random vibration 
theory we simulated the ground motion for 
an earthquake of 7.5 magnitude at 
Pitoragarh and found that the Peak ground 
acceleration in the soft sediments is three 
times larger in comparison to the stations 
located on hard rock. 
Seismological Constraints for Great 
Kangra Earthquake of 1905 and 
Associated Hazard in NW India 
Srivastava, Hari Narain [*H N Srivastava*] 
(128, Pocket A, Sarita Vihar, New Delhi 
110076; ph 09350904775; email: 
hn_srivastava@hotmail.com); M Verma 
(Seismology Division, Ministry of Earth 
Sciences, Mausham Bahawan, Lodhi Road, 
New Delhi 11003; ph 24618241 ext. 4435; 
email: mverma.moes@gmail.com) 
The great Kangra earthquake of 1905, 
occurred when seismological instrumentation 
with low gain optical recording seismograph 
were very sparsely located.  However, 
attempts are made in recent time not only to 
refine the epicentral data but even to 
postulate new earthquake (Hough et al 2005) 
to explain secondary meizoseismal area near 
Dehradun.  Careful re-examination of their 
analysis has brought out that the postulated 
earthquake near Dehradun was misleading 
interpretation. The seismological data given 
by them fits better  with the large aftershock 
of great Kangra earthquake which occurred 
within a few minutes  The meizoseismal area 
near Dehradun was a  indeed  a site 
response effect similar to that of Bihar Nepal, 
1934, Bhuj 2001,  Mexico (1985) and other 
earthquakes as was  inferred earlier by most 
of the scientists.  It has also been highlighted 
that for earthquake hazard assessment, the 
role of secondary meizoseismal areas should 
not be ignored.  Also, the places which were 
already affected by earthquakes of 
magnitude  ≥  8,  should  be  prioritized  from 
earthquake hazard and disaster management 
point of view. 
Page 58 Geomorphic Evolution of Himalaya and 
Its Foreland: The Last 60 ka Perspective 
Srivastava, Pradeep [*Pradeep Srivastava*] 
(Wadia Institute of Himalayan Geology, 33 
GMS Road, Dehradun 248001; ph. 0135-
2525351; Fax. 0135-2625212; email: 
The past glacial events are the driving forces 
behind the geomorphic evolution of the 
Earth. North Indian Subcontinent is being 
drained by several major rivers that originate 
from glaciated zones of Himalaya. A study in 
Spiti, Ganga and Brahmaputra river systems 
indicate that although the glaciation was the 
major source of sediment generation but it 
the shorter phase of climatic transition (e.g. 
18-11 ka) from drier to wetter that was 
responsible for huge sediment supply and 
floodplain aggradations in the Himalayan 
foreland and Delta. Separate studies from 
the deltaic zones suggest 4-9 times 
increased sedimentation rates during the 
climatic transitions. Spiti River in the arider 
Himalaya experienced increased landslide 
activity and related river damming. Humid 
Ganga river valley, both in its mountainous 
and foreland segments, experienced 
extensive wide aggradation. The chronology 
of the sediments in Himalayan river valleys 
indicates two pulses of sedimentation being 
surged into the valley as a result of 
deglaciation of and. The two-phased 
deglaciation from ~63-18 ka (MIS-3 and 
MIS-2), supplied pulses of higher sediment 
loads and massive valley aggradation in NW 
Himalayan. The ~40 luminescence ages 
represent aggradation in the Ganga valley 
was centered ~40-25 ka and 18-11 ka. The 
Spiti River showed deviation conforming to 
present day rainfall conditions. The wetter 
conditions (~11-6 ka) of the early Holocene 
led to increased stream power and river 
incision. Although, the catchment in the 
Ganga plain responded asynchronously with 
their Himalayan counterparts and incised 
after 7 ka. Similar results are obtained from 
Nepal, Sikkim and NE Himalaya. The study 
indicates that evolution of landscape takes 
place in pulses where the climatic events like 
glaciation and deglaciation play important 
Could the Magnitude of an Earthquake 
be Bounded From Above? 
Srivastava, Vipin [*Vipin Srivastava*] 
(School of Physics, University of Hyderabad, 
Hyderabad 500046, India) (0091-40-
23134364) (0091-40-
It is suggested that the formation of 
microfractures in the course of 
theprogressive damage of the earth system 
that leads to a critical failure and eventually 
results into an earthquake could follow a 
fractal pattern. This is combined with ideas 
from ‘self-organized-criticality’ to study if 
there is a maximum scale, or upper fractal 
limit, at which the rupture reaches the size of 
the entire system and thus imposes a limit, 
or a cut-off, on the maximum magnitude of 
which an earthquake can occur. 
Mantle Plumes, Their Depth of Origin 
Within the Mantle and Excess 
Subrata, Das Sharma [*S. Das Sharma*] 
(National Geophysical Research Institute, 
Uppal Road, Hyderabad-500007, Council of 
Scientific and Industrial Research, India; ph. 
+91-40-23434632; fax +91-40-27171564; 
e-mail: dassharma@ngri.res.in); D. S. 
Ramesh (National Geophysical Research 
Institute, Uppal Road, Hyderabad-500007, 
Council of Scientific and Industrial Research, 
India; ph. +91-40-23434632; fax +91-40-
27171564; e-mail: 
Mantle plumes are classified as one of the 
extreme candidates that can leave largescale imprints on the global biogeosphere. 
Some of the contentious issues that need 
detailed examination and understanding are 
detectibility, strength and depth of origin etc. 
of the mantle plumes. Innovative techniques 
are already on way to address these issues 
(Montelli et al., 2004, Science, v. 303, p. 
338; Putirka, 2008, Geology v. 36, p. 283). 
In this study we develop an alternative 
approach and attempt to resolve these issues 
of importance through integration of our 
geophysical results with isotope geochemical 
data, mineral-melt equilibria results and 
those from mineral physics. Using P-to-S 
converted seismic waves from the 410-km 
and 660-km depth discontinuities, we 
investigate disposition of these boundaries 
beneath 12 prominent oceanic hotspot 
regions distributed on the globe. The 
thickness of the mantle transition zone 
(MTZ), measured from P660s-P410s 
differential times (tMTZ), is determined. Our 
analyses reveal that the MTZ thickness 
beneath hotspots studied by us varies 
between 210 km and 250 km. The MTZ 
thickness follows a power law relation with 
the strength of the plume, measured as their 
Page 59 buoyancy flux, B. The shrinkage of the MTZ  
beneath hotspots yields the following order: 
Hawaii > Kerguelen > Pitcairn > Galapagos 
> Samoa > Iceland > Canary.  Hoggar, St. 
Helena, Easter and Afar are characterized by 
marginally low MTZ thickness compared to 
the global average of ~ 250 km, possibly 
because of a lower heat budget associated 
with these hotspots or because of their 
relatively small size or both. It is also 
possible that the observed MTZ response for 
these four hotspots relates to the waning 
stage of hotspot activity, well past their 
energetic phase. Two plume-ridge interaction 
affected hotspots such as Afar and Azores 
yield near-normal MTZ thickness of ~250 
Excursions induced to the MTZ thickness are 
used to estimate the excess temperatures 
beneath each hotspot location using the 
concept of effective seismological Clapeyron 
slope [Bina & Helffrich, 1994, JGR v.99, p.15, 
853]. The insight obtained from our results 
concerning the depth character of the studied 
plumes, their excess temperatures and the 
relationship they exhibit with the available Useries disequilibria measured in hotspot lavas 
(Bourdon et al., 2006, Nature, v. 444, p. 
713) are discussed. Finally, hotspots are 
indeed geophysically detectable and 
associated with an excess temperature of 
200-300 degrees. Many Pacific Ocean 
hotspots seem to have their origin in the 
transition zone or deeper. 
Spectral Characterization of Soil and 
Coal Contamination on Snow Reflectance 
Using Hyperspectral Analysis 
Sushil Kumar, Singh [S. K. Singh*] 
(ESHD/MESG/RESA, Space Applications 
Centre (ISRO), Ahmedabad-380 015, India; 
ph. +91-79-26914380; fax. +91-79-
26915825; e-mail:sushil@sac.isro.gov.in); A. 
V. Kulkarni (ESHD/MESG/RESA, Space 
ApplicationsCentre (ISRO), Ahmedabad-380 
015, India; ph. +91-79-26914380; fax. +91-
79-26915825; e-mail: 
anilkul@sac.isro.gov.in); B. S. Chaudhary 
(Department ofGeophysics, Kurukshetra 
University, Kurukshetra – 136119, India; ph. 
+91 94163 36163;fax +91 1744 238035/ 
238277; e mail: bsgeokuk@yahoo.com) 
Snow is highly reflecting object found 
naturally on the Earth and its albedo is highly 
influenced by the amount and type of 
contamination. In present study, two major 
types of contaminants (soil and coal) have 
been used to understand the effects on snow 
reflectance in Himalayan region. These 
contaminants were used in two categories 
quantitatively - addition in large quantity and 
addition in small quantity. Snow reflectance 
data were collected between 350-2500 nm 
spectral ranges and binned at 10 nm interval 
by averaging. The experiment was designed 
to gather the field information in controlled 
conditions and radiometric observations were 
collected. First derivative, band absorption 
depth, asymmetry, correlation coefficient and 
percentage change in reflectance in optical 
region  were  selected  to  identify  and 
discriminate the type of contamination. The 
band absorption depth has shown initially 
increasing pattern for small amount of 
concentration but for large amount of 
concentration, a decrease in band depth 
could observed at 1025nm. The absorption 
peak was left asymmetric in nature and not 
significant difference was found for the width 
of absorption feature at 1025 nm. The 
percentage change in reflectance was quite 
high for small amount of coal contamination 
rather than soil contamination, however, a 
shift of peak was observed in soil 
contaminated snow which was not present in 
coal contamination. The albedo significantly 
drops due to coal contamination rather than 
soil contamination. This will provide an 
important input to understand the effect of 
contamination on snow and glacier studies 
due to changed atmospheric conditions. 
Fractal and Multifractal Characteristics 
of Time Series in Seismogenic Regions 
of 1897 Assam, 1905 Kangra and 1934 
Bihar Great Earthquakes 
Teotia, Satybir Singh [*S.S.Teotia*] 
(Department of Geophysics, Kurukshetra 
University, Kurukshetra-136119, India; 
ph.09416266580(M); fax 91-1744-238035; 
email: teotia_ss@rediffmail.com); Dinesh 
Kumar (Department of Geophysics, 
Kurukshetra University, Kurukshetra-132116, 
Recent advances in seismology and rock 
physics are very useful in understanding the 
available empirical laws in seismology. Such 
laws are interpreted from a fractal 
perspective, and earthquakes are viewed as 
a self organized critical phenomenon (SOC). 
Earthquakes occur as an energy dissipation 
process in earth’s crust to which tectonic 
energy provides continuous input. As the 
crust gets self-organized into critical state, 
the temporal and spatial fractal structure 
emerges naturally.Power laws relations 
known in seismology may be considered as 
the expression of critical state of the earth’s 
crust. SOC model for earthquakes are able to 
Page 60 explain the Gutenberg-Richter in size, the 
Omri’s law of aftershocks in time, the 
hypocentral distribution in space. Most fractal 
systems in nature are hetrogeneous. For 
such fractals, a unique fractal dimension is 
insufficient to characterize them and same 
differs depending upon the method used to 
estimate it. Fractals and multifractal 
characteristics are studied using seismicity 
data from USGS catalogue in various 
seismogenic regions i.e.1897 Assam, 1905 
Kangra and 1934 Bihar great earthquakes in 
The correspondence between fractal 
dimension and other seismotectonic 
parameters are also studied in the region for 
understanding the implications in seismic 
hazard and risk mitigation. 
Rodinia Supercontinent, Snowball Earth 
and Extreme Global Paleoclimate 
Change: Evidences From the  Lesser 
Himalaya and Marwar Supergroup , 
Tewari, V C *V C Tewari* Wadia Institute of 
Himalayan Geology, Dehradun, Uttarakhand , 
248001, India , 00911352525213 , 0091-
135-2625212, vtewari@wihg.res.in 
The Rodinia Supercontinent existed during 
Meso- Neoproterozoic and its breakup and 
reassembly as Gondwana Supercontinent is 
now well established in the Proterozoic earth 
history.The Rodinia breakup resulted in the 
rifting around 650 Ma and rift basins and 
passive margins were formed. 
Neoproterozoic glacial events recorded 
globally ,  now better known as snowball 
earth have strong evidences from the Lesser 
Himalayan glacial diamictite deposits known 
as Blaini Diamictites with pink cap 
carbonates in the north India and Pokharan 
Boulder beds in the  Marwar Supergroup, 
western Rajasthan.The global distribution of 
Neoproterozoic diamictites  and cap 
carbonate occurrences in the low 
paleolatitudes inferred from paleomagnetic 
data and carbon isotopic excursions have 
been discussed in the present paper. The 
reconstruction of Rodinia Supercontinent and 
the paleoposition of India ( Lesser Himalaya ,  
southern China  and  Marwar  basins )  
strongly suggest that they were very closely 
situated and shared the identical 
paleolatitude and paleoclimate. Post Rodinia 
breakup on earth possibly witnessed the 
most extreme climatic fluctuations between 
750- 600 Ma.Paleoglacieres might have 
reached the equator around 635 Ma covering 
the whole earth. Carbon isotopic evidences 
from Australia, China, India, Oman, northern 
polar Europe, Canada, North America, Africa 
and South America suggest there are 
Sturtian, Marinoan and Gaskiers glacial 
events. General paleomagnetic 
reconstructions are available on breakup of 
Rodinia, Neoproterozoic rifting ,  glaciation 
and emergence of  multicellular Ediacaran 
biota in the Indian Lesser Himalaya.. 
However , detailed rock magnetic and  
paleomagnetic data is still to be generated to 
reconstruct APW path of Indian subcontinent 
Climate Catastrophe: Spectral 
Characteristics and Model Behavior of 
Abrupt Climate Changes Over Present to 
Millennial Time Scales 
Tiwari, Ram Krishna  [*  R.  K.  Tiwari  *] 
Theoretical Modeling Group, National 
Geophysical research Institute, Council of 
Scientific & Industrial Research, Uppal Road, 
Hyderabad.Phone:91-40-23434648, Fax:91-
40-23434651, rk_tiwari3@rediffmail.com) 
Complex climate variability indicate role of 
land-ocean-atmosphere-cryospherebiosphere coupling and possible linkages with 
various types of external forcing such as 
changes in CO2 and solar variability. These 
various non-linearly interacting components 
have different response time and spatial 
variations and hence produce beat 
frequencies, resonances and modulations 
cycles in the climate system. Internal 
rearrangements of the system dynamics 
make it further quite difficult to determine 
true equilibrium in abrupt dynamical system. 
Present modeling studies have often 
represented such complex and transient 
spacio-temporal structure simply as uniform 
which appears to have contributed to 
reduced model sensitivity to threshold 
crossing compared to the real response. 
Steady state climate variability in a certain 
time window, however, could be 
characterized by significant oscillations. 
Modern spectral analyses of proxies of 
climate variability indicate some evidence of 
quasi-periodicities in well recognized 
astronomical frequency bands ranging from 
some couple of years to thousand of years. 
We analyzed here some recently published 
climate proxies’ records using multiple 
methods of spectral analyses. The analyzed 
data include: sea surface temperature off 
central Japan since the last glacial minima, 
Indian  Rainfall  (IRF)  time  series  covering  the 
time span of 1826-1994 and the coral growth 
rate time series for a relatively short period 
from the Arabian Sea, NINO3 temperature 
Page 61 records to investigate the signature of ENSO 
response of the Indian monsoon and 
temperature variability record decoded from 
tree-rings of western Himalayas.Multi-taper 
spectral analysis of IRF time series resolves 
(reveal coherent cyclic modes of varying 
order.) statistically significant variability (i) 
at multi-decadal (66-70 year’s) scales related 
to the well-known global temperature 
variability of internal atmospheric-ocean 
origin, (ii) relatively weak signals at 13 and 
22 years (solar cycles) and (iii) the 2.5 to 7.5 
year cycles associated with the ENSO 
frequency band. Spectra of the coral growth 
rate record also reveal statistically significant 
periodicities within 1.8-4.2 ENSO frequency 
band, and at 12.8 years. Wavelet spectra 
reveal non-stationary “localized modes” of 
ENSO evolution corresponding to 2-7 years 
and higher order terms. Although matching 
periodicities are present in these records, 
cross-spectral analysis of IRF and NINO3 
temperature records exhibits significant 
“coherency” at periods 5.4 years and 2.7 
years suggesting the significant role of ENSO 
dynamics in organizing the subtle Indian 
monsoon at these frequencies.  
Bimodal and hysterisis pattern observed in 
abrupt climate change records (e.g. in 
Greenland ice core and several other 
records) appears quite interesting, which 
possibly indicate “critical state” of climate 
variability. This observed “catastrophic jump” 
and delayed asymmetric patterns could be 
explained more precisely by using the 
concept of “catastrophe theory”. Model 
response suggests that such extreme events 
could be induced at the time of “criticality” in 
the system dynamics even in the presence of 
slow external forcing (solar / CO2 variability) 
which could be further amplified by 
stochastic forcing. 
Extreme Seismic Events and Gravity 
Anomalies in the Subduction Zones 
Tiwari, Virendra  [*V.  M.  Tiwari*]  (National 
Geophysical Research Institute, Hyderabad 
(CSIR), India, 500 606, fax: +91-40-
27171564, email: vmtiwari@ngri.res.in); 
D.A. Bhaskar Rao (National Geophysical 
Research Institute, Hyderabad (CSIR), India, 
500 606, email:sunniearjun@yahoo.co.in); 
B. Singh (National Geophysical Research 
Institute, Hyderabad (CSIR), India, 500 606, 
email: bsingh@ngri.res.in) 
Extreme Seismic Events (ESE), i.e. megathrust earthquakes in the Sumatra-Andaman 
subduction zone are located in the relatively 
low gravity anomalies over forearc. The 
differences in the nature of gravity anomalies 
are originated from variations in the 
geometry of subduction zone, evolved over 
geological time period. Complex geometry 
and thermal property in the SumatraAndaman subduction zone appear to govern 
width of Seismogenic coupling zone and thus 
the lateral variation in the seismozonic 
behavior (Gravemeyer and Tiwari, EPSL, 
2006). We further investigate the nature and 
sources of gravity anomalies and their 
association with ESE, through analyses of 
gravity data over Aleutian, Kamchatka and 
other subduction zones. Gravity anomalies, 
corrected for bathymetry, sediment and 
crustal thicknesses show a remarkable visual 
correlation with location of ESE. The sources 
of the gravity anomalies are debatable 
however; causal link of subduction process to 
gravity anomalies might suggest that gravity 
anomalies may be useful indicators for the 
long term seismic behavior in the subduction 
Some Characteristics of the K-T 
Boundary Mass Extinction Event 
Tripathi, Priyanka [*Priyanka 
Tripathi*](National Geophysical Research 
Institute, Council of Scientific & Industrial 
Research, Uppal Road, Hyderabad – 500 007, 
India; ph. +91-40-23434618; fax +91-40-
23434651; e-mail: 
Our earth is known to be an extremely 
dynamic system associated with complex 
evolutionary processes.  It underwent several 
cycles of evolution and extinction during the 
course of its geologic history.  In the last 250 
ma, there have been about eight major mass 
extinction events.  K-T boundary event was 
one of them which eliminated simultaneously 
a wide spectrum of animal and plant groups 
from the land as well as oceans, viz., 
dinosaurs, reptiles, invertebrate groups of 
planktic and benthic foraminifera, calcareous 
nannoplanktan and molluscs etc. In the 
present study, we have studied the nature of 
marine and non-marine extinction across the  
K-T boundaries which indicates that the 
extinction pattern have differed for different 
groups of animals and plants.  For example, 
dinosaurs disappeared entirely at the end of 
Mesozoic era but much smaller mammals 
suffered only moderate losses.  In the sea, 
ammonoids and large marine reptiles 
(plesiosaurs and mosasaurs) died and other 
groups also declined sharply.  Many species 
of the inoceramid bivalves and ammonoids 
declined in diversity over most of 
maastrichtian age and disappeared before its 
end. A periodicity of 333 Ma has been 
reported in mass extinction episodes.  
Page 62 K-T boundary mass extinction was 
apparently caused by an asteroidal impact 
induced massive volcanism on the western 
margin and adjacent offshore.  It was also 
the time when this region was uplifting due 
to massive melt generation underneath.  
These phenomena led to shallowing of the 
sea, alteration of seawater chemistry and 
ultimately biological catastrophe. 
A Study on Chaotic Behaviour of 
Equatorial/low Latitude Ionosphere 
Over Indian Subcontinent, Using GPSTEC Time Series 
Unnikrishnan, K. K. Unnikrishnan* 1,2, 
Sudha Ravindran3  1 Department of Physics, 
N S S Hindu College, Changanacherry, Kerala 
686 102, India 2  School of Pure and Applied 
Physics, Mahatma Gandhi University, 
Priyadarshini Hills, Kottayam, Kerala– 686 
560, India 3 Space Physics Laboratory, 
Vikram Sarabhai Space Centre, 
Thiruvananthapuram, Kerala-695022, India 
The deterministic chaotic behaviour of 
ionosphere, over Indian subcontinent falling 
under equatorial/low latitude region, -
0.3─22.19oN (Geomagnetic), was studied 
using GPS-TEC time series. The values of 
Lyapunov exponent are low at 
Thiruvananthapuram, and Agatti (-0.30 and 
2.38oN, Geomagnetic, respectively), and 
thereafter increase through Bangalore, and 
Hydrabad (4.14, and 8.54oN Geomagnetic, 
respectively), and attain maximum at 
Mumbai (10.09oN Geomagnetic), which is 
ananomaly crest station. Correlation 
dimension and entropy computed for TEC 
time series show no appreciable latitudinal 
variabilites. The values of non linear 
prediction error exhibit a trough, around the 
latitude sector, 2.38-19.84oN 
(Geomagnetic). The observed latitudinal 
variabilities of chaotic behaviour of TEC over 
Indian sub-continent could be due to the 
influence of features like, equatorial 
electrojet, equatorial noon time bite-out, the 
equatorial ionization anomaly, and day-today variability of electron density. 
Paleoseismological Study in the Nepal 
Himalaya – Present Status 
Upret, Bishal Nath  B.N.  UPRETI1,  Y. 
KUMAHARA2 and T. NAKATA3 1Department 
of Geology, Tri-Chandra Campus, Tribhuvan 
University, Ghantaghar Kathmandu, Nepal 
(bnupreti@wlink.com.np) 2Faculty of 
Education, Gunma University, 4-2, 
Aramaki,Maebashi, 371-8510 JAPAN 3 
Faculty of Environmental Studies, Hiroshima 
Institute of Technology, 2-1-1 Miyake, Saekiku, Hiroshima 731-5193, Japan 
Based on the study of the aerial photographs 
and field observations, the present authors 
have mapped a large number of active faults 
in the Nepal Himalaya, and the detailed 
active fault maps of the entire country are in 
the process of publication. The active faults 
belong to the Main Frontal Thrust, Main 
Boundary Thrust, Main Central Thrust and 
Lesser Himalayan Active Fault systems. 
Himalaya represents seismically one of the 
most active regions on our planet. Historic 
records are far and few except the great 
earthquakes of the last two centuries. Active 
fault trenching began only very recently in 
the Himalaya, and a few successful trenching 
in Nepal and India have produced important 
results which with further works will help to 
build up database for the earthquake hazard 
assessment in this region.  
The first successful trenching on an active 
fault that was carried out in the Himalaya in 
eastern Nepal on the Main Frontal Thrust, 
produced a result indicating the most recent 
surface rupture around 1200 AD with a 
displacement of at least 4 m (Nakata et al, 
1998, Upreti et al., 2000). This observation 
clearly precludes the rupture to belong to the 
1934 earthquake. Similar trenchings in eastcentral and western Nepal also demonstrate 
that no surface ruptures associates with the 
known great earthquakes of the last two 
centuries (1897, 1905, 1934 and 1950) seem 
to be present. Instead, in all these studies 
carried out so far in Nepal along the 
Himalayan Frontal Thrust (HFT), two large 
earthquakes with surface displacement 
reaching as much as ~20 m have been 
recognized (Lave et al., 2005, Yule, et al, 
2006). They date approximately 1100 (eastcentral and eastern Nepal), post ~1450 AD 
(western Nepal, probably belonging to the 
known 1505 historic earthquake). These two 
earthquakes with such large displacements 
may have produced magaearthquakes 
exceeding magnitudes Mw 8.6, much larger 
than the 1934 or 1833 earthquakes of Nepal. 
Thus, the central Himalayan seismic gap of 
1505 and the eastern Nepal seismic gap of 
~1100 are now potentially dangerous and 
the seismic gaps are now sufficiently 
matured to trigger renewed rupture 
producing large earthquakes. This puts Nepal 
on a global map of very high earthquake risk 
zone. However, to strengthen the database 
for a better understanding of the seismic 
history and to evaluate seismic hazard in the 
region, a large-scale trenching activity 
Page 63 combined with shallow seismic survey  is 
needed along the Himalayan front. 
Key words: Active fault; Paleoseismology; 
Himalaya; Trenching; Earthquakes. 
Kumahara, Y. (1998). “First successful 
paleoseismic trench study on active faults in 
the Himalaya”. Fall meeting, American 
Geophysical Union, San Francisco. 
Lavé, et al. (2005). “Evidence for a great 
medieval earthquake (~1100 A.D.) in the 
Central Himalaya, Nepal . Science 307, 1302-
Nakata, T., Yagi, H., Okumura, K., Upreti, 
B.N., Rockwell, T.K., Virid, N.S., Maemoku, 
H. and Upreti, B.N., Nakata, T., Kumahra, Y., 
Yagi, H., Okumura, K., Rockwell, T.K., Virdi, 
N.S., and Maemoku, H. (2000). “The latest 
active faulting in southeast Nepal”. 
Proceedings of the Hokudan International 
symposium and School in active faulting, 17-
26 January, 2000: 533-536. 
Thrust in east-central and western Nepal: 
Evidence for an unprecedented type of 
Himalayan earthquake.? Abstract volume, 
International workshop on seismology, 
seismotectonics and seismic hazard in the 
Himalayan region, 28-29 November, 2006, 
Kathmandu, 13-14. 
Yule, D., Lavé, J., Sapkota, S.N., Tiwari, D., 
Kafle, B., Pandey, M.R., Dawson, S., Madden, 
C., and Attal, M. (2006). Large surface 
ruptures of the Main Frontal 
Spatial and Temporal Variations of Bvalue and Fractal Analysis of the 
Earthquake Distribution from the 
Andaman-Sumatra Subduction Zone of 
the Indian Ocean 
V. Swaroopa, Rani [D. Srinagesh] (Council of 
Scientific and Industrial Research, National 
Geophysical Research Institute, Hyderabad, 
India; Ph. +91-40-23434792; e-mail: 
srinagesh@ngri.res.in); [*V. Swaroopa 
Rani*] (Council of Scientific and Industrial 
Research , National Geophysical Research 
Institute, Hyderabad, India; Ph. +91-40-
23434793; e-mail: 
swaroopa_rv@yahoo.co.in); Kirti Srivastava 
(Council of Scientific and Industrial Research, 
National Geophysical Research Institute, 
Hyderabad, India; Ph. +91-40-23434793; email: kirti@ngri.res.in) and V. P. Dimri 
(Council of Scientific and Industrial Research, 
National Geophysical Research Institute, 
Hyderabad, India; Ph. +91-40-23434600; 
Fax: +91-40-23434651; e-mail: 
Spatial and temporal distribution of b-value 
and fractal dimension which help in deciding 
which region is highly stressed up and which 
is not, have been carried out for earthquakes 
from the Andaman-Sumatra subduction 
zone. Using these values the stress levels 
before and after the mainshock have been 
deciphered. We have observed a decrease in 
b-value with time before the mainshock 
signifying that the region having enough 
stresses and is ready to rupture. Similarly an 
increase in b-value after the mainshock 
signifies that the region had released the 
accumulated stresses and has ruptured. This 
trend has been observed in all the blocks 
where we had the 26th December 2004, 
Sumatra earthquake of Magnitude Mw 9.3, 
2005 Nias event of magnitude Mw 8.6 and 
the 12th September 2007 Bengkulu 
earthquake of magnitude Mw 8.4. Comparing 
the spatial and temporal variations of ‘5’ 
blocks it is clear that some regions are still 
having stresses and could be regions for 
significant earthquakes. 
Understanding the Complex Behavior of 
Crustal Heat Production 
Vedanti, Nimisha [*Nimisha 
Vedanti*](National Geophysical Research 
Institute (CSIR), Uppal Road,Hyderabad, 
ph.91-4023434767, fax 91-40-23434651, email: nimisha@ngri.res.in); V.P. Dimri 
(National Geophysical Research Institute 
(CSIR), Uppal Road, Hyderabad, ph.91-
4023434600, Fax 91-40-23434651, e-mail: 
vpdimri@ngri.res.in); O.P. Pandey (National 
Geophysical Research Institute (CSIR), Uppal 
Road, Hyderabad, ph.91-4023434618, Fax 
91-40-23434651, email:om_pandey@rediffmail.com) 
The distribution of crustal heat production, 
which is the most important component of all 
estimates of continental thermal structure, 
still remains a theoretical assumption. In 
general the heat production values must 
decrease with depth but the form of decrease 
of heat production in crust is not known in 
detail. The commonly used heat production 
models are ‘block model’, in which heat 
production is constant from the surface to a 
given depth and the ‘exponential model’, in 
which heat production diminishes as an 
exponential function of depth. The 
exponential model is more widely used but 
the sources of errors in this model are 
heterogeneity of rock and long wavelength 
changes due to changes in lithology and 
tectonic elements. Therefore, to derive an 
exponential distribution for the model of 
entire crust seems to be risky. Thus, to 
Page 64 understand the behaviour of distribution of 
heat production in the upper crust, heat 
production data of two boreholes, German 
Continental Deep Drilling Project(KTB) and 
Soultz, Germany, was analyzed. The power 
spectrum of both the data sets exhibit power 
law behaviour. Also, the covariance of heat 
production data of both the boreholes 
decreases with lag, which also indicates 
power law behaviour. Further, the variogram 
analysis of heat production data indicates the 
presence of nonstaionarity in the data. The 
semivariogram of both the data sets didn’t 
obtain any ‘sill’. This implies that the 
variogram is unbounded and the data is 
nonstationary, which needs further analysis. 
Moreover, the variogram can also be used as 
a lithology indicator. Major peaks/ trends in 
the semivariogram correspond to the change 
in major lithologies of the boreholes. In case 
of KTB, the variogram exhibits three trends 
corresponding to changes from granites to 
amphibolite-metagabbro and then Franconian 
lineament and granite. However, in case of 
Soultz borehole, the variogram didn’t exhibit 
many trends because there in no major 
lithology change in the borehole. 
Extreme Geomagnetic Storms and Low 
Latitude Geomagnetic and Ionospheric 
Vennadhari, B. [*B. Veenadhari*], R. Singh  
and  S. Alex (Indian Institute of 
Geomagnetism, New Panvel, Navi Mumbai – 
410218 India; ph. 91-22-27484191; fax 91-
The manifestation and development of 
magnetic storm is closely related to the 
interaction of solar wind and magnetosphere 
following the reconnection processes of 
interplanetary magnetic field with the earth’s 
magnetic field boundary. Perturbations 
associated with the changes in the earth’s 
magnetosphere are known to have immense 
contribution to the structure and dynamics of 
the ionosphere.  During extreme solar events 
such as big flares or/and energetic coronal 
mass ejections (CMEs) high energy particles 
are accelerated by the shocks formed in front 
of fast interplanetary coronal mass ejections 
(ICMEs). The ICMEs (and their sheaths) also 
give rise to large geomagnetic storms which 
have significant effects on the Earth’s 
environment and human life. The present 
solar cycle witnessed many solar flares and 
CMEs which gave rise to intense geomagnetic 
storms due to highly active solar 
environment. Solar region 486 produced one 
of the largest solar flares of this solar cycle, 
an X17/4B proton flare peaking and had 
intense radio bursts.  A very fast earth ward 
directed full halo CME was observed. This 
powerful CME produced an intense magnetic 
storm on 29 October. In continuation to this 
effect, another major storm impact was seen 
on 31 October, caused by a strong solar flare 
with magnitude X10/2b. Subsequently other 
CME was observed and strong southward 
component of interplanetary magnetic field 
resulted in severe magnetic storm occurred 
on 20
 November. Varied development 
pattern during the storm main phase for the 
events which occurred during 2001 and 2003 
are considered for the present study using 
the ground geomagnetic data with one 
minute resolution from low and equatorial 
latitudes and also multi satellite data of solar 
wind and interplanetary parameters. The 
equatorial low latitude ionospheric signatures 
as inferred from F region plasma parameters 
in Indian region will be investigated in 
response to intense magnetic storms and 
associated perturbed electric fields. This 
study delineates the magnetosphereIonosphere interaction processes evolved 
during the intense magnetic storms. 
Extreme Events in Space Weather: 
Characterizing the Inherent Statistical 
Veeramani, T. [*Thangamani Veeramani*] 
(University of Maryland, College Park, MD 
20742; e-mail: avtmani@gmail.com) [A. 
Surjalal Sharma] (University of Maryland, 
College Park, MD 20742; e-mail: 
Space weather is driven by the solar wind 
and many extreme geomagnetic events such 
as geospace storms and substorms are 
potential natural hazards. The statistical 
studies of these vents are complicated 
because of the turbulent nature of their 
driver, the solar wind. The archived data of 
 geospace storms and substorms for very 
long periods are available  and are  analysed 
using many techniques of complex science. A 
database of substorms consisting of more 
than 5 million events have been compiled for 
this study of the inherent statistical 
characteristics of extreme events in 
geospace. The auto-correlation and mutualinformation functions are used to obtain the 
scaling exponents and they show the 
presence of long-term correlations and 
clustering. The scaling is represented by two 
exponents, the break arising due mainly to 
the turbulent nature of the solar wind driving 
the events. The auto-correlation functions 
show stronger long-term correlation than the 
Page 65 mutual information functions, which 
represent correlations of all orders. The 
return intervals for varying thresholds show 
long-range correlations with decreasing 
strength for higher thresholds, similar to the 
case of multifractal systems. The techniques 
of detrended fluctuation analysis are used to 
study of the long-range correlations and 
clustering among the geospace events. 
High Frequency of Landslides in Aizawl, 
Mizoram, India A Case Study 
Verma, Rahul [Rahul Verma*] Department of 
Geology, PUC, Mizoram University, Aizawl, 
Mizoram, India, vrahul24@gmail.com 
Geological investigations are being carried 
out in the area around Aizawl (Latitude 23° 
43' N- 23° 73’N and longitudes 92° 43' E- 
92° 71' E), the capital of State of Mizoram, 
India. The aim of the present work is an 
attempt to assess the status of slope 
sustainability and instability in the very 
Mizoram, being one of the most landslide 
prone zones of India, has always suffered 
extensive damage to life and property. To 
evaluate the causes of these landslides, a 
case study of Aizawl Township is presented 
The landslides in this region are mostly 
controlled by the natural elements such as 
Climate (very heavy rainfall), physiography, 
topography and geology .The human 
activities are adding further to the problem.  
The township is situated on the acute N-S 
trending hills. These hills are a part of 
Mizoram-Naga Hills. Geologically, Mizoram is 
a part of Tripura - Mizoram mio-geosyncline 
which constitute a part of the Assam - 
Arakan geosynclinals basin.  The Mizoram 
Hills (Lushai Hills) have been considered to 
be forming an integral part of the mobile belt 
(Indo-Mynmar Arc). Owing to these facts, the 
whole region is placed in  Zone-V, of the 
Landslide Hazard Zonation Map of India.  
The regional geology predominantly consists 
of sandstone and shale of Bhuban Formation 
of Surma Group (Late Oligocene-Early 
Miocene). Most of the shales are highly 
weathered and friable. The massive 
sandstone beds are extensively jointed and 
fractured, rendering a blocky nature to these 
rocks. Moreover these rocks are highly prone 
to weathering and erosion. 
The slope map of India reveals the fact that 
nearly 70% of the area of Mizoram has very 
steep slope (more than 
600mts/kilometers)and the rest comes under 
steep slopes (300-600 meters/kilometer).The 
average slope in the Bhuban rocks in the 
Aizawl Township is 45
 and at most places 
nearly 60
. Moreover, heavy rainfall (+ 200 
cm) and cloudbursts lead to the weakening 
of slope material at the shale –sandstone 
contacts, causes excessive load on the slope 
material. As a result, the larger rock masses 
slide down to create greater havocs like 
substantial mud flows and landslides  
All these aggravating factors combined, put 
the Aizawl region in Very High Frequency 
Region of active landslides, with a Landslide 
Susceptibility Index > 40.   
The contribution of human activities such as 
“aggressive cutting of forests, burning forests 
(Jhoom system), extensive undermining, 
uncontrolled urbanization, improper 
sanitation and drainage etc, also aggravates 
the problem.   
In order to reduce the frequency of landslide 
in the region, preventive measures must be 
taken on priority basis to provide stability 
and strength to the slope material. Some 
important control measures are: construction 
of retaining walls, concrete foundation and 
plantation along the slopes. 
Last, but not the least, a rational approach 
towards the sustainable urban growth with 
due geological consideration in building 
construction, would certainly  impart 
reduction in the  frequent landslides in the 
Investigations Into Cause of High 
Lightning Incidence and Accidents by it 
in a Region With Relatively Special 
Vishnu, R. [*Vishnu R.*] (Centre for Earth 
Science Studies, Thiruvananthapuram 
695031, India; ph. +91-471 2511642; fax 
+91-471-2442280; e-mail: 
vishnurnair@yahoo.com ); Murali Das S. 
(Centre for Earth Science Studies, 
Thiruvananthapuram 695031, India; ph. 
+91-471 2511642; fax +91-471-2442280; 
e-mail: muralidas_s@rediffmail.com); Mohan 
Kumar G. (Centre for Earth Science Studies, 
Thiruvananthapuram 695031, India; ph. 
+91-471 2511642; fax +91-471-2442280; 
e-mail:  g m k 4 8 3 3 @ y a h o o .  c o m ) ;  Sampath 
S. (Retired, present address: D227, Swathi 
Nagar, Thiruvananthapuram- 695023, India; 
ph. +91 471-2466305, e-mail: 
Investigations into cause of relatively high 
lightning incidence and accidents by it in 
Page 66 Kerala, a state in India reveals relatively 
special characteristics. The bounding of the 
state on the west by the Western Ghats and 
by the sea on the east results in the state 
having a relatively high incidence of 
lightning. Investigations with weather 
stations and a lightning detector show 
evidence indicating the existence of weather 
conditions conducive for formation of 
convective thunderstorms on the mountain 
slope. Spatial distribution data of lightning 
also shows the influence of the mountain 
range in forming convective thunderstorms. 
The lightning accident scenario in the state is 
also different. The high vegetation density of 
the state makes the conventional lightning 
rod almost ineffective in according external 
protection  to  dwellings.  This  is  because 
lightning discharge gets attached to trees 
near the buildings. The discharge involves 
objects and personnel in dwellings as far as 
100 m from the tree through ground 
conduction. The role of differing ground 
resistivity in ground conduction accidents and 
role of metal objects in the vicinity of 
lightning in getting involved is also 
Marine Storms - Analysis, Statistics and 
von Storch, H. [Hans von Storch], Institute 
for Coastal Research, GKSS Research Center, 
Geesthacht, Germany  hvonstorch@web.de, 
+49 171 212 2046 
Storms represent the major geo-risk in 
marine and coastal environments – almost 
everywhere. They may cause significant 
damage both by their own wind-force but 
also indirectly through storm surges and 
ocean waves. Thus, knowledge about the 
statistics of marine storms and their current 
and possible future changes are of utmost 
interest not only for coastal and marine 
stakeholders but also for the public at large. 
We consider three types of marine storms, 
tropical storms, extra-tropical baroclinic 
storms and polar lows. Because of changing 
observational capabilities, the observational 
record of the frequency of intensity of such 
storms is methodologically difficult; 
sometimes, conclusions about changing 
storminess are based on inhomogeneous 
data, due to changing local conditions, 
observation practices and instrumentation.  
Homogenous statistics of storminess for 
sufficiently long times can be derived by 
combining two sources of knowledge, namely 
the “reconstruction” with regional climate 
models for the last six decades (during which 
global re-analyses are available), and the 
assemblage of long series of suitable proxy 
data. The availability of suitable regional 
climate models allows also the construction 
of consistent scenarios of possible future 
storm statistics. 
Results for extra-tropical storms in Europe 
are given in some detail; first results for 
tropical storms in East Asia and North 
Atlantic polar lows are given as well.  
Distributions of Extreme Bursts Above 
Thresholds in a Fractional Lévy Toy 
model of Natural Complexity. 
Watkins, N. [*N W Watkins*] (British 
Antarctic Survey, High Cross, Madingley Rd., 
Cambridge CB3 0ET, UK; ph. +44 1223 
221545; fax +44 1223 221226; e-mail: 
In 2 far-sighted contributions in the 1960s 
Mandelbrot showed the ubiquity of both nonGaussian fluctuations and long-ranged 
temporal memory (the “Noah” and “Joseph” 
effects, respectively) in the natural and manmade worlds. Much subsequent work in 
complexity science has contributed to the 
physical underpinning of these effects, 
particularly in cases where complex 
interactions in a system cause a driven or 
random perturbation to be nonlinearly 
amplified in amplitude and/or spread out 
over a wide range of frequencies. In addition 
the modelling of catastrophes has begun to 
incorporate the insights which these 
approaches have offered into the likelihood 
of extreme and long-lived fluctuations.  
In my talk I will briefly survey the research in 
Natural Complexity which the British 
Antarctic Survey mounted since 2005, in 
which the application of the above ideas in 
the earth system has been a key focus and 
motivation [e.g. Watkins & Freeman, 
Science, 2008; Edwards et al, Nature, 2007]. 
I will then discuss in detail a standard toy 
model (linear fractional stable motion) which 
combines the Noah and Joseph effects in a 
controllable way, contrasting it with the 
widely used continuous time random walk. I 
will describe how it is being used to explore 
the interplay of the above two effects in the 
distribution of bursts above thresholds 
[Watkins et al, PRE, 2009]; and will conclude 
by exploring more recent work on 
multifractal models [Watkins et al, PRL 
comment, 2009]. 
Page 67 The Probability Distribution of Extreme 
Geomagnetic Events in the Auroral Zone 
Weigel, R.S. [R.S. Weigel], George Mason 
University, Department of Computational and 
Data Sciences, Fairfax, VA 22030, 
Earth's magnetosphere is strongly controlled 
by the solar wind. The statistics of solar wind 
fluctuations tend to dominate the signal of 
magnetospheric response measurements. We 
have computed the probability distribution 
function that describes extreme changes 
(greater than 4$\sigma$) in the ground 
magnetic field at an auroral zone 
magnetometer station and found that the 
functional form, a power law, is nearly 
independent of the state of the solar wind 
and other variables such as day-of-year and 
local time. The primary difference in the tails 
of the probability distribution function during 
weak and strong solar wind forcing is the 
standard deviation. Based on this result, we 
conclude that differences in solar-generated 
conductivity, seasonal effects, strength of 
solar wind forcing and variability, and 
position of the magnetometer ground station 
in local time do not change the structure of 
the extreme-value dynamics but rather serve 
to amplify the intrinsic variability. 
Extreme Events – Methodologies for a 
Rational Approach to Deal with Extreme 
Natural Events Under Intrinsic 
Wenzel, F. [Friedemann Wenzel], Universität 
Karlsruhe, Geophysikalisches Institut, 
Hertzstr. 16 76187 Karlsruhe. Tel: +49 721 
608 4431, Fax: +49 721 71173, E-mail: 
Friedemann.wenzel@gpi.uka.de, Al 
Bronstert, Universität Potsdam, Institut für 
Geoökologie Karl-Liebknecht-Str. 24-25, 
14476 Potsdam, Tel: +49 331 977 2548, 
Fax: +49 331 977 2092 E-mail: 
In  general,  the  definition  of  an  extreme 
event is context dependent. Here we refer to 
low probability high impact events with 
return periods that are outside the ‘window’ 
where standard regulatory measures apply 
(residual risks), and with significant societal 
impact (lives, property, social structures, 
environment, economy) that disrupt 
functions in a large area and cause large 
losses as compared to the Gross National 
Product (GNP) of a country. The risks (i.e. 
potentials for future losses) associated with 
these events are not only high but also very 
difficult to quantify, as they are characterized 
by high levels of uncertainty. Uncertainties 
may relate to frequency, time of occurrence, 
strength and impact of extreme events but 
also to the coping capacities of society in 
response to them. The characterization, 
quantification, reduction in the extent 
possible of the uncertainties is an inherent 
topic of extreme event research. However, 
they will not disappear, so a rational 
approach to extreme events must include 
more than reducing uncertainties. It requires 
us to assess and rate the irreducible 
uncertainties, to evaluate options for 
mitigation under large uncertainties, and 
their communication to societal sectors. Thus 
the primary objective of a recent research 
programme established in Germany is to 
develop methodologies that aim at a rational 
approach to extreme events associated with 
high levels of uncertainty. Addressing this 
objective requires (a) novel methodologies in 
natural and social sciences to quantify and to 
reduce uncertainties in data, models, and 
predictions; (b) the consideration of several 
types of disasters as the comparison of 
impacts is a constituent part of a rational 
approach; (c) interaction with social sciences 
for rationalizing uncertainties in the context 
of societal values, in communication with 
societal sectors with the aim of creating 
rational mitigation strategies. 
b-value Mapping in Hindukush-Pamir 
Himalaya Region: Evidence of Phase 
Transformation of Material within 
Subducting Slab
Yadav, R.B.S [*R.B.S. Yadav] (Institute of 
Seismological Research, Gandhinagar, 
Gujarat, India-382009); D. Shanker 
(Department of Earthquake Engineering, IIT 
Roorkee, India) and A.P. Singh (Institute of 
Seismological Research, Gandhinagar, 
Gujarat, India-382009)  Email:
The Hindukush- Pamir Himalaya region is one 
of the most active orogenic regions of the 
world, which is located at the western 
syntaxis of the Himalaya created by the 
collision of the Indian and Eurasian plates. 
This region is one of the most complex and 
peculiar tectonic regions in the world, which 
has experienced several large to great 
earthquakes in the past. The Himalayan part 
of Alpide belt and its neighboring region, 
which include India, Pakistan, Afghanistan, 
Hindukush, Pamirs, Mangolia and Tien-Shan 
bounded by 25
N and 65
E, have 
Page 68 been considered as the study region for bvalue mapping. For this purpose a 
homogeneous and complete seismicity 
database has been prepared for the period 
1853 to Oct. 10, 2005 with the help of all 
existing earthquake catalogues and lists 
pertaining to the region. The prepared 
seismicity database is homogenized for 
surface wave magnitude (Ms) with the help 
of various empirical relationships developed 
among different magnitude scales (Ms, mb
and Mw). The cut-off magnitude (threshold 
magnitude or magnitude of completeness, 
Mc) for this seismicity database is estimated 
as Ms 4.0. However, the spatial distribution 
of Mc shows its variation from 4.0 to 4.8 in 
the whole region. The completeness periods 
for different magnitude ranges are also 
estimated and it is observed that 
earthquakes falling in the magnitude range of 
4.0 - 4.4, 4.5 - 4.9, 5.0 - 5.4, 5.5 - 5.9, 6.0 - 
6.4 and  ≥ 6.5 are complete since 1965, 
1960, 1955, 1920, 1915 and 1882, 
The frequency-magnitude distribution in the 
study region has been analyzed in the terms 
of the distribution of  a and  b parameters of 
G-R relationship (Log N = a – b M). In order 
to map  a and  b-values for the study region, 
the most complete seismicity database for Ms 
≥ 4.0 during the period 1963 to Oct. 10, 
2005 has been used. The a and b-value has 
been estimated with the help of maximum 
likelihood method using spaced grids of 0.5
X 0.5
 with 50 to 200 nearest earthquakes 
and considering spatial variation of Mc. The 
spatial variation of ‘a’ value ranges from a 
low of 5.20 to as high as 8.51 and  b-value 
ranges from a low of 0.7 to as high as 1.5. 
The high a (>7.50) and b (>1.2) values are 
observed in the Kashmir-Dharamsala region 
of Himalayan Frontal Arc, where a 
catastrophic earthquake has occurred on 
April 4, 1905 of magnitude Ms 8.6. Another 
high  a and  b values region are observed in 
the east and west of Pamir Himalaya. 
Medium  a  (6.5 – 7.5) and  b (1.0 – 1.2) 
values are observed throughout the 
Afghanistan region, northern Pakistan region 
to the southwest of Hindukush, Kirthar 
ranges, Quetta, Kunlun and western part of 
Tibet region. Low  a (< 6.5) and  b (< 1.0) 
values are observed at the Caucasus, 
Hindukush, a large area in southeast of the 
Hindukush, Middle Himalayan Frontal arc 
with Nepal region, Sulaiman Mountain ranges 
and NW of it. Low  b- value regions infer as 
the growing stress regime unleashing larger 
magnitude earthquakes while high b value 
indicates increased crustal heterogeneity and 
low stress buildup with continued stress 
release through numerous smaller magnitude 
The Hindukush-Pamir region of intermediate 
depth seismicity shows a random distribution 
of low to high  b-value showing the 
heterogeneous crustal structure beneath it. 
The  b  value varies as a function of depth in 
subduction zones which may indicates a 
phase transformation of material in 
subducting slab. A low b value is observed at 
the depth of 70 to 150 km and below 180 km 
showing the high stress regime within the 
subducting slab. A reasonable high  b-value 
(> 1.0) is observed throughout the crust of 
the Indian and Eurasian plates up to depth of 
70 km in which shallow depth seismicity is 
concentrated. A high  b value (> 1.2) is 
observed at the collision zone of the Indian 
and Eurasian plates of about 150 km wide 
area up to depth of 100 km. The high  bvalue is also observed within the subducting 
slab of Indian plate within a depth of 150 
km. This high  b-value zone may be 
characterized by the region of phase 
transformation of material with low effective 
stress due to high pore pressure which 
results from the dehydration of the 
subducting slab.
Tectonic Implications and Seismicity 
Triggering During Mw 6.4 Baluchistan, 
Pakistan Earthquake Sequence of 
October 28-29, 2008
Yadav, R.B.S. [*R.B.S. Yadav] (Institute of 
Seismological Research, Gandhinagar, 
Gujarat, India-382009), V.K. Gahalaut 
(National Geophysical Research Institute, 
Hyderabad, India) and S. Chopra (Institute 
of Seismological Research, Gandhinagar, 
Gujarat, India-382009) Email: 
A damaging and widely felt earthquake (Mw 
6.4) hit the rural, mountainous region of 
southwestern Pakistan on October 28, 2008 
at 23:09 UTC. The main shock was followed 
by another earthquake of similar magnitude 
(Mw 6.4) on the next day. The spatial 
distribution of aftershocks revealed a NW-SE 
striking rupture in accordance with the 
centroid moment tensor focal mechanism 
solution implying right-lateral strike slip 
motion. The occurrence of these earthquakes 
Page 69 Page 70 
suggests that strike-slip faults are present 
beneath the fold-and-thrust belt of Sulaiman- 
Kirthar ranges and they accommodate some 
of the relative motion of the Indian and 
Eurasian plates.  
To assess the properties of this sequence, 
the statistical parameters like aftershocks 
temporal decay (p-value), b-value of G-R 
relationship and spatial fractal dimension (Dvalue) have been examined. The b-value 
equals to 1.04±0.42 suggest the tectonic 
origin of the sequence and crustal 
heterogeneity within crust. The low p-value 
equals to 0.89±0.07 implies slow decay of 
aftershocks activity which evidences low 
surface heat flow. A value of spatial fractal 
dimension equal to 2.08±0.02 indicates 
random spatial distribution and source is a 
two-dimensional plane that is being filled-up 
by fractures. 
The static coseismic Coulomb stress changes 
due to the foreshock (Mw 5.3) were found to 
increase stress by more than 0.004 bars at 
the hypocenter of the main shock, thus 
promoting the failure. This indicates that the 
foreshock triggered the main shock. The 
coseismic Coulomb stress changes due to 
main shock suggest that most of the 
aftershocks were triggered by the main 
shock as most of the aftershocks lie in the 
region of positive coulomb stress, SE to the 
main shock rupture.  
Operation of Multi-objective Multireservoir System Under Climate Change 
Zarghami, Mahdi [Mahdi Zarghami], PhD, 
University of Tabriz, Iran, 
Optimal operation of multiple-reservoir 
systems is one of the important tasks in the 
field of complex and non-linear water 
resources management. In addition, more 
than a single objective must be considered in 
the planning of these systems, which adds 
the complexity of the model. The 
mathematical model of a multi-reservoirs 
system in Sefidrud watershed (Northern 
Iran) is formulated and the uncertain system 
parameters are assumed to be stochastic. In 
this study, the expected benefit-cost, 
recreational uses and also controlling the 
extreme events (flood) are the objectives of 
the study. The study finds appropriate 
releases from various reservoirs in the 
system in order to satisfy the multiple 
conflicting objectives. The main source of the 
uncertainty is due to the stochastic inflows, 
which are affected by the climate change. 
The stochastic simulation on the results will 
give robust and reliable outcomes in the 
uncertain conditions. 
Key words: Complex Systems, Multi 
objective reservoir systems, Climate change.